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John Burns Real Estate Consulting - U.S. Housing Analysis
U.S. HOUSING MARKET STATISTICS
Data Current Through January 8, 2010
                 
          Historical Range
  Grade* Period Statistic Direction** Minimum Average Maximum 1st Year
Economic Growth D              
Real GDP (annual rate) C 2009Q3 2.2% Rising -10.4% 3.3% 17.4% 1947
Employment Growth (1-year Change)                
  - Non-ag Payroll, NSA D Dec, 2009 -4,096,000 Improving -5,956,000 1,447,885 5,243,000 1940
Employment Growth Rate                
  - Non-ag Payroll, NSA D Dec, 2009 -3.0% Improving -7.6% 2.2% 16.4% 1940
Unemployment Rate F Dec, 2009 10.0% Flat 2.5% 5.7% 10.8% 1948
  Average Length of Unemployment (Weeks)   Dec, 2009 29.1 Increasing 7.1 13.7 29.1 1948
  Median Length of Unemployment (Weeks)   Dec, 2009 20.5 Increasing 4.0 7.4 20.5 1948
  % of Labor Force Unemployed 27 weeks and over   Dec, 2009 4.0% Increasing 0.1% 0.8% 4.0% 1948
U.S. Initial Jobless Claims C- Dec, 2009 433,000 Declining 162,000 359,991 695,000 1967
Mass Layoff Events, SA (YOY % Change) C Dec, 2009 0% Increasing -48.1% 8.3% 132.1% 1995
Productivity B 2009Q3 9.5% Rising -10.8% 2.3% 17.5% 1947
Retail Sales C- Nov, 2009 1.9% Rising -10.6% 4.4% 11.0% 1992
Capacity Utilization F Nov, 2009 71% Increasing 68.3% 81.1% 89.4% 1967
Inflation                
  Core CPI B+ Nov, 2009 1.7% Flat 0.7% 4.0% 13.6% 1958
  Full CPI C Nov, 2009 1.8% Rising -15.8% 3.4% 23.7% 1914
Personal Income Growth, nominal F Nov, 2009 -0.3% Improving -2.6% 7.1% 14.1% 1960
Federal Deficit (last 12 mos., $mil curr.) F Nov, 2009 -$1,447,147 Decreasing -$1,454,360 -$272,050 $564,514 1980
U.S. Immigration as a % of Total Population   2008 0.4% Increasing 0.1% 0.2% 0.7% 1950
Total Population Growth   2008 1.0% Increasing 0.9% 1.2% 1.8% 1951
Total Households   2009Q3 111,459,000 Increasing 56,848,000 87,780,793 111,459,000 1965
  - Growth Rate D 2009Q3 0.7% Decreasing 0.1% 1.5% 4.1% 1966
Owned Households   2009Q3 75,339,000 Increasing 35,728,000 57,431,802 75,875,000 1965
  - Growth Rate D 2009Q3 0.2% Increasing -1.2% 1.7% 4.1% 1966
Rented Households   2009Q3 36,119,000 Decreasing 21,052,000 30,220,704 36,293,000 1965
  - Growth Rate C 2009Q3 1.7% Decreasing -3.1% 1.2% 5.1% 1966
                 
          Historical Range
Leading Indicators C Period Statistic Direction** Minimum Average Maximum 1st Year
Leading Econ. Index (Ann. Growth Rate Last 6 Mos.) B Nov, 2009 9.6% Declining -19.5% 2.6% 18.9% 1959
ECRI Leading Index A Dec, 2009 24.4% Rising -29.7% 1.7% 27.8% 1967
Manpower Net Employment Outlook D 2010Q1 6% Rising -2% 15% 25% 1989
U.S. Vistage CEO Confidence Index C- 2009Q3 85% Increasing 49% 92% 116% 2003
CEO Economic Outlook Survey   2009Q4 72% Increasing -5% 75% 104% 2002
U.S. Average Hours Worked per Week   Dec, 2009 33.2 Declining 33.0 35.2 38.8 1964
Temporary Employed Workers F 2009Q3 -23.9% Declining -30.2% 4.6% 30.5% 1990
Corporate Profit Growth (pre-tax) D 2009Q3 -6.7% Rising -25.1% 7.5% 58% 1947
Corporate Bond Spread (Corp Bond vs. 10-Yr Tres.) D+ Dec, 2009 1.50 Decreasing -0.17 0.81 2.67 1919
Capital Goods New Orders D Nov, 2009 -10.2% Increasing -26.0% 2.6% 21% 1992
Money Supply - M2 C Nov, 2009 3.2% Decreasing -6.6% 2.8% 11% 1959
Interest Rate Spread                
10-year Treasury   Dec, 2009 3.76% Rising 2.29% 6.36% 15.32% 1953
2-year Treasury   Dec, 2009 0.95% Rising 0.80% 6.57% 16.47% 1976
  Interest Rate Spread A- Dec, 2009 2.81% Widening -2.15% 0.79% 3.39% 1976
3-month LIBOR   Dec, 2009 0.25% Declining 0.25% 4.37% 8.75% 1990
3-month Treasury   Dec, 2009 0.05% Flat 0.03% 5.09% 14.28% 1982
  TED Spread B Dec, 2009 0.20% Narrowing -0.09% 0.49% 3.41% 1990
Stock Market (Return over last 12 months)                
  Dow Jones   C Dec, 2009 19% Rising -72% 7% 136% 1930
  S&P 500 B- Dec, 2009 23% Rising -45% 8% 53% 1950
  NASDAQ B- Dec, 2009 44% Rising -60% 12% 105% 1984
  Wilshire 5000 B Dec, 2009 27% Rising -44% 7% 45% 1990
  S&P Super Homebuilding C Dec, 2009 18% Rising -58% 12% 116% 1994
Tougher Standards on Business Loans - Large Firms D+ 2009Q3 32% Decreasing -24% 10% 84% 1990
Tougher Standards on Business Loans - Small Firms D+ 2009Q3 34% Decreasing -24% 9% 75% 1990
Crude Oil Price (Current $) D+ Dec, 2009 $74.30 Decreasing $13.83 $36.00 $132.41 1946
ISM Manufacturing Index C Dec, 2009 55.9 Increasing 29.4 52.6 77.5 1948
ISM Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index C Dec, 2009 53.7 Increasing 33.3 56.0 67.7 1997
                 
          Historical Range
Affordability C- Period Statistic Direction** Minimum Average Maximum 1st Year
JBREC Affordability Index A Nov, 2009 0.8 Decreasing 0.0 4.8 10.0 1981
US Median Home Payment / Income Ratio   Nov, 2009 26.1% Decreasing 24.8% 34.5% 58.2% 1981
US Median Home Price / Income Ratio C+ Nov, 2009 3.2 Decreasing 2.8 3.3 4.6 1981
Mortgage Rates, Fixed A+ Dec, 2009 5.14% Rising 4.81% 9.01% 18.45% 1971
Mortgage Rates, Adjustable B+ Dec, 2009 4.33% Declining 3.41% 6.34% 12.20% 1984
Fixed/Adjustable Spread D Dec, 2009 0.81% Widening (0.0%) 1.79% 3.36%  
Fixed/10-year Spread D+ Dec, 2009 1.38% Narrowing 0.53% 1.69% 4.86%  
Fed Funds Rate   Dec, 2009 0.15% Flat 0.10% 5.52% 19.10% 1954
Percentage of Adjust. Loans A Dec, 2009 3.8% Declining 0.8% 16.8% 36.6% 1990
Equity/Owned Home (Current $) D- 2009Q3 $82,471 Increasing $69,958 $107,227 $194,150 1952
Debt % in Home (LTV) F 2009Q3 62.4% Decreasing 19.3% 34.5% 66.5% 1952
Median Household Income   2009Q3 $53,293 Increasing $20,402 $38,157 $55,406 1967
  - Growth Rate, nominal F 2009Q3 -3.9% Decreasing -0.2% 3.8% 8.3% 1968
                 
          Historical Range
Consumer Behavior D Period Statistic Direction** Minimum Average Maximum 1st Year
Consumer Confidence Index D- Dec, 2009 52.9 Rising 25.3 96.4 144.7 1967
Consumer Sentiment Index D Dec, 2009 72.5 Increasing 51.7 86.6 112.0 1978
Consumer Comfort Index F Dec, 2009 -44.5 Increasing -51 -9 38 1985
Revolving Cons. Credit per Household   Oct, 2009 $7,954 Decreasing $410 $3,856 $8,727 1977
  - Growth Rate A+ Oct, 2009 -8.2% Decreasing -8.2% 9.8% 28.2% 1978
Personal Savings Rate C- Nov, 2009 4.7% Improving -2.7% 6.8% 14.6% 1959
U.S. Net Worth Growth Rate D 2009Q3 -6.0% Increasing -21.3% 7.1% 17.2% 1957
Financial Obligation Ratio D+ 2009Q3 17.8% Decreasing 15% 17% 19% 1980
Misery Index (Unemployment + Inflation) C- Nov, 2009 11.80 Rising 2.97 9.41 21.98 1948
                 
          Historical Range
Existing Home Market C- Period Statistic Direction** Minimum Average Maximum 1st Year
S&P/Case-Shiller� U.S. Price Index (YOY % Change) D 2009Q3 -8.9% Rising -19.0% 3.7% 15.7% 1988
NAR Single-Family Median Home Price   Nov, 2009 $171,900 Declining $19,700 $99,569 $230,900 1968
NAR Single-Family Annual Price Appreciation D Nov, 2009 -4.4% Accelerating -16.8% 5.5% 17.4% 1969
Freddie Mac Annual Price Appreciation F 2009Q3 -4.0% Accelerating -5.3% 5.6% 14.9% 1971
Annual Sales Volume, SA A Nov, 2009 6,540,000 Increasing 1,370,000 3,776,402 7,210,000 1968
Existing Home Inventory for Sale, SA D Nov, 2009 3,518,000 Decreasing 1,510,000 2,509,048 4,575,000 1982
Months Supply of Unsold Homes, SA C+ Nov, 2009 6.5 Decreasing 3.6 7.3 13.8 1982
Purchase Mort. App. Index, SA C- Dec, 2009 222.2 Declining 53.5 272.5 529.3 1990
Pending Home Sales Index, SA D+ Nov, 2009 96.0 Declining 80.4 105.1 128.2 2001
Homeownership Rate B 2009Q3 67.6% Rising 62.8% 65.3% 69.2% 1965
                 
          Historical Range
New Home Market D+ Period Statistic Direction** Minimum Average Maximum 1st Year
Housing Market Index F Dec, 2009 16 Decreasing 8 51 78 1985
Multifamily Condo Market Index D 2009Q3 24.0 Increasing 7.8 36.2 66.9 2002
Median Price, NSA   Nov, 2009 $217,400 Increasing $17,200 $103,399 $262,600 1963
Annual Appreciation Rate D+ Nov, 2009 -1.9% Decelerating -14.6% 5.8% 24.5% 1964
Constant Quality Price Index (YOY % Change) F 2009Q3 -6.1% Decelerating -7.8% 4.8% 16.8% 1963
Sales Volume, SA F Nov, 2009 355,000 Decreasing 329,000 686,615 1,389,000 1963
New Home Inventory for Sale, NSA B+ Nov, 2009 234,000 Decreasing 175,000 327,817 570,000 1963
Months Supply of Unsold Homes, SA B- Nov, 2009 7.9 Increasing 3.5 6.1 12.4 1963
  Months of Homes Completed, SA B- Nov, 2009 3.4 Increasing 0.8 1.9 6.1 1973
  Months of Homes Under Const., SA C Nov, 2009 3.5 Increasing 2.0 3.4 5.9 1973
  Months of Homes Not Started, SA C Nov, 2009 1.0 Increasing 0.4 1.0 1.9 1973
                 
          Historical Range
Repairs and Remodeling D- Period Statistic Direction** Minimum Average Maximum 1st Year
Homeowner Improvement Activity (YOY % Change) D- 2009-Q3 -9.4% Decreasing -16.1% 3.9% 18% 1995
Remodeling Market Index - Current D+ 2009-Q3 39.8 Increasing 25.5 46.8 56.9 2001
Remodeling Market Index - Future Expectations D+ 2009-Q3 38.7 Increasing 18.6 45.9 57.8 2001
Private Residential Construction (YOY % Change) D Nov, 2009 -19.2% Increasing -35.0% 2.6% 24% 1993
Residential Investment as % of GDP (nominal) F 2009Q3 2.5% Rising 2.4% 4.7% 7% 1947
                 
          Historical Range
Housing Supply F Period Statistic Direction** Minimum Average Maximum 1st Year
New Housing Units Completed, SA F Nov, 2009 810,000 Increasing 723,000 1,515,871 2,299,000 1968
Single-Family Starts, SA F Nov, 2009 482,000 Increasing 357,000 1,080,452 1,823,000 1959
Multifamily Starts, SA F Nov, 2009 92,000 Increasing 55,000 435,849 1,144,000 1959
  Total Starts, SA F Nov, 2009 574,000 Increasing 479,000 1,516,301 2,494,000 1959
Single-Family Permits, SA F Nov, 2009 473,000 Increasing 342,000 930,496 1,798,000 1960
Multifamily Permits, SA F Nov, 2009 111,000 Increasing 101,000 487,816 1,385,000 1960
  Total Permits, SA F Nov, 2009 584,000 Increasing 498,000 1,418,900 2,419,000 1960
Manuf. Housing Placements, SA F Oct, 2009 51,000 Decreasing 44,000 222,645 429,000 1980
  Total Supply, SA F   635,000 Increasing 553,000 1,669,290 2,379,000 1980
Total Housing Stock     2009Q3 130,302,000 Increasing 63,303,020 97,063,470 130,302,000 1965
  - Growth Rate D- 2009Q3 0.9% Increasing 0.4% 1.6% 3.3% 1966
Homeowner Vacancy Rate F 2009Q3 2.6% Rising 0.9% 1.5% 2.9% 1965
                 
Overall Grade D+ (Based on a straight average of the 7 Major Factors Above)    
                 
SA stands for Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate.  NSA stands for Not Seasonally Adjusted.          
* The best 15% ever are "A" scores, the average is a "C", and the worst 15% ever are "F" scores, with distributions throughout.    
** Direction is in comparison to the most recent data for the prior month's statistic.  A positive number that says "Declining" means      
that the number was more "positive" last month, and vice versa. Due to revisions, prior month's data may change. As a result,      
this month's direction indicated may not coincide with the statistics reported in the prior month.        
*** A high number is better affordability.  The calculation is 30% of the Median Household Income divided by the Mortgage Payment    
  on the Median-Priced home.