JBREC's 2020 Southern California Outlook: 7 Trends to Watch | John Burns Real Estate Consulting

JBREC’s 2020 Southern California Outlook: 7 Trends to Watch


Rising New Home Sales and Prices*

  • New home sales to rise from 19,590 in 2019 (preliminary) to 20,890 in 2020.
  • Housing demand drivers such as job growth and affordability indicate that sales could be even higher than projected.
  • Supply constraints are holding the market back (SOAR in Ventura County, JJJ in Los Angeles, and just an overall lack of entitled land and developed lots in San Diego).
  • New home prices to rise by about 3.2% (Southern California average).

 

Source: DesignLens

More Age-Qualified (Age 55+) Housing

 

Source: DesignLens

More Attached For-Sale Neighborhoods

  • Attached home configurations are an increasingly popular for-sale option throughout Southern California to meet demand for attainably priced homes.
  • Fast-selling projects in diverse locations such as Menifee, Ontario, Santee, Rancho Mission Viejo, Sylmar, and Santa Clarita demonstrate demand for attached product—at the right price—in almost any location.
  • Consider also targeting in-fill locations in submarkets such as San Pedro, Gardena, Rosemead, Chino, Oceanside, Spring Valley, and Rancho Cucamonga.

 

Source: DesignLens

The Ascent of Accessory Dwelling Units (ADUs)

  • Cities are streamlining the permitting process for ADUs in the hopes of boosting the supply of attainably priced housing and meeting state-mandated housing requirements.
  • Multi-generational “home-within-a-home” floor plans, such as NextGen by Lennar and GenSmart by Pardee, continue to be very popular options for new home buyers looking for home flexibility and potential rental income.

 

Source: Ranch on the River

A Whole New Town Is Rising in LA County, Providing Much Needed Home Sites

  • Site improvements are underway at Newhall Ranch located just west of the city of Santa Clarita in Los Angeles County. The first village totals 1,072 homes.
  • Newhall Ranch is approved for about 21,000 homes and 10 million square feet of commercial uses.
  • Planned community amenities will set a new standard for master plans.
  • Newhall Ranch is California’s first Net Zero Energy community.

 

Measure JJJ Decimates the LA New Home Pipeline

  • Passed by Los Angeles voters in November 2016, Measure JJJ requires developments that add ten or more units and seek a general plan amendment, zone change, or height variance to follow certain labor and affordable housing mandates.
  • Three years after the passage of Measure JJJ, it is clear that the measure has effectively shut down new for-sale housing entitlements in the city of Los Angeles.
  • The only projects currently coming to market were grandfathered in before JJJ was enacted.
  • According to a UC Berkeley study, since the passage of JJJ, “few projects have filed for entitlements under the Measure JJJ rules, and only one project has been approved to date.”

 

Source: DesignLens

Bright Colors Are In

  • Home builders and masterplan developers are upping the fun factor in their new home neighborhoods by bringing in brighter and bolder statement-making colors.
  • Visit the neighborhoods of the Great Park in Irvine (Five Point Communities), The Resort in Rancho Cucamonga (Lewis Community Development), and Bedford in Corona (The Home Company) for inspiration.

 

Contact Us

Contact our Southern California market experts to talk about how we can help you to identify and assess market trends and maximize the market viability of your next new home community.

 


*Counties of Los Angeles, Orange, Riverside, San Bernardino, San Diego and Ventura

 

 


Pete Reeb If you have any questions, please contact Pete Reeb, Principal at (858) 281-7216 or by email.
Adam Artunian If you have any questions, please contact Adam Artunian, Vice President at (949) 870-1213 or by email.
Scott Wild If you have any questions, please contact Scott Wild, Vice President at (858) 281-7223 or by email.