Dissecting Price Correction Market by Market | John Burns Real Estate Consulting

Dissecting Price Correction Market by Market


We are often asked to make a call on how much further home prices have to correct. To do that, we study over 30 data elements on each market, talk to our clients in each market, and rely on qualitative feedback from our consultants who are regularly in the market as well as a top local market consultant.

We have spent a lot of time and $$$ trying to perfect the formula to project prices, and so have others, and it just doesn’t work because there are too many criteria (do you know how to model the impact of loan mods, for example?).

Rolling up the data nationally, prices have corrected back to Q1 2003 and our best guess is that they’ll end up near 3Q 2002 prices, which is a 5% correction from here in the Case Shiller Index. However, look at the huge differences by market. In the following chart, we’ve taken median home prices for major metros and plotted them to the year when the current price was last achieved.

The biggest bubble markets like Phoenix, Las Vegas and Stockton have corrected back to 2000 to 2001 median prices. But many of those metros late to the downturn such as Seattle and Houston are still at 2006 prices and are likely to see more price erosion before stability returns.

We are showing resale prices above. New home prices, net of incentives, have corrected more, and we have found that they serve as a great leading indicator because home builders react quickly to market conditions.

We are putting the finishing touches on our detailed Strategy & Forecast reports for 2011 for 20 MSAs, which we hope will help you buy the right land and build the best-selling homes. Please respond to this email if you want to be added to an interest list for more detailed information on pricing and specifics, or to talk to one of our local market experts.

This is the most current available data for all variables and markets.

Permits Statistics
Employment Statistics
Affordability
12-
12-
Total
NF Payroll Employment
State
Metro Area*
Month
S. Fam. Permits
Month
Total Permits
Permits / Peak Permits
1-Yr Growth
1-Yr Growth Rate
Unemp Rate
Median Home Price
Housing Costs / Income
JBREC Affordability Index
Alabama
Anniston-Oxford 109 120 25% 200 0.4% 9.0% $85,101 18% 0.0
Auburn-Opelika 662 1,010 46% 200 0.4% 7.6% $127,566 25% 0.0
Birmingham 1,573 1,637 21% (4,100) (0.8%) 8.7% $140,838 22% 0.0
Decatur 177 197 21% (100) (0.2%) 9.3% $94,691 18% 0.0
Dothan 276 323 43% (500) (0.9%) 8.0% $86,235 17% 0.0
Florence 158 198 25% 400 0.7% 8.3% $93,647 19% 0.0
Gadsden 122 122 31% 100 0.3% 8.9% $82,516 18% 0.1
Huntsville 2,306 2,306 46% 2,100 1.0% 7.2% $122,620 18% 0.1
Mobile 1,056 1,627 59% (1,200) (0.7%) 10.0% $125,164 25% 1.1
Montgomery 500 865 33% (2,200) (1.3%) 9.0% $129,939 22% 0.2
Tuscaloosa 371 684 26% 1,000 1.1% 8.1% $120,102 23% 0.1
Alaska
Anchorage 428 535 6% 1,100 0.6% 6.9% $178,532 20% 0.1
Fairbanks 42 42 5% 400 1.0% 6.6% $141,899 18% 0.1
Arizona
Flagstaff 173 261 19% 1,300 2.1% 7.4% $250,000 44% 5.1
Phoenix 7,950 8,727 13% 24,300 1.4% 8.5% $128,000 19% 0.9
Prescott 242 426 10% 300 0.5% 9.4% $124,559 23% 0.0
Tucson 1,788 2,368 18% 100 0.0% 8.4% $157,000 28% 0.8
Yuma 514 514 19% (100) (0.2%) 26.7% $127,000 26% 2.8
Arkansas
Fayetteville 1,142 1,293 17% (2,400) (1.2%) 5.9% $99,878 16% 0.0
Fort Smith 543 721 55% (1,500) (1.3%) 7.8% $75,670 14% 0.0
Hot Springs 40 40 11% 500 1.3% 7.3% $107,521 21% 0.1
Jonesboro 476 664 68% 300 0.6% 6.7% $76,581 14% 0.0
Little Rock 1,916 3,484 61% (6,000) (1.8%) 6.5% $129,992 20% 0.7
Pine Bluff 48 114 28% (300) (0.8%) 8.9% $66,715 13% 0.0
California
Bakersfield 1,110 1,446 16% (2,700) (1.2%) 14.4% $120,000 20% 0.1
Chico 168 439 22% (1,400) (2.0%) 12.8% $196,000 36% 3.2
El Centro 112 120 5% (1,200) (2.7%) 29.3% $132,000 28% 2.0
Fresno 1,572 1,895 26% (3,900) (1.4%) 15.7% $147,000 26% 0.7
Hanford 187 237 18% 300 0.8% 15.0% $144,750 24% 3.3
Los Angeles (D) 2,514 6,433 9% (31,400) (0.8%) 12.5% $335,000 46% 2.6
Madera 110 118 5% 100 0.3% 14.3% $130,000 23% 0.3
Merced 60 65 2% (400) (0.7%) 16.3% $115,000 20% 0.5
Modesto 182 182 3% (1,000) (0.7%) 16.2% $140,000 21% 0.3
Monterey 131 299 11% (1,400) (1.2%) 10.4% $242,250 32% 0.9
Napa 127 133 13% (1,100) (1.8%) 8.9% $311,000 37% 1.0
Oakland (D) 1,984 3,278 14% (19,300) (2.0%) 11.0% $330,000 34% 1.9
Orange County (D) 1,558 3,122 13% 14,200 1.0% 9.1% $500,000 50% 4.3
Redding 167 206 9% (500) (0.9%) 14.6% $155,000 28% 0.1
Riverside-San Bernardino 5,540 6,769 12% (14,300) (1.3%) 14.2% $175,000 23% 0.5
Sacramento 2,207 2,585 11% (21,800) (2.7%) 12.1% $205,000 27% 1.0
San Diego 2,158 3,492 8% (1,100) (0.1%) 10.2% $369,000 45% 3.1
San Francisco (D) 402 1,088 16% (13,700) (1.5%) 8.9% $643,000 63% 2.8
San Jose 912 2,335 23% 4,000 0.5% 10.7% $550,000 49% 3.9
San Luis Obispo 314 473 13% (800) (0.8%) 9.4% $366,000 50% 3.5
Santa Barbara 284 444 16% (1,000) (0.6%) 8.7% $307,500 41% 2.0
Santa Cruz 118 152 11% (2,100) (2.4%) 10.6% $495,000 58% 3.3
Santa Rosa 267 524 9% (1,600) (0.9%) 9.7% $331,750 41% 1.6
Stockton 837 849 12% (3,400) (1.8%) 16.3% $161,000 23% 0.4
Vallejo-Fairfield 541 541 9% (2,500) (2.1%) 11.7% $206,500 24% 0.8
Ventura 204 524 7% (4,600) (1.7%) 10.5% $405,000 41% 3.2
Visalia-Porterville 772 908 25% (1,000) (0.9%) 15.9% $118,000 21% 0.1
Yuba-Sutter 104 106 4% (1,700) (4.4%) 17.8% $133,000 22% 0.0
Colorado
Boulder 253 630 12% 300 0.2% 6.2% $345,000 38% 5.2
Colorado Springs 1,645 1,659 15% (2,400) (1.0%) 8.8% $180,391 23% 0.2
Denver 3,696 5,043 18% (2,200) (0.2%) 8.2% $222,500 28% 3.0
Fort Collins 452 865 24% 700 0.5% 6.5% $215,000 28% 2.3
Grand Junction 335 395 19% (1,500) (2.5%) 9.1% $130,005 19% 0.0
Greeley 804 868 20% 1,100 1.4% 9.0% $148,700 20% 0.1
Pueblo 198 225 16% 0 0.0% 9.6% $82,136 15% 0.2
Connecticut
Bridgeport 608 883 17% (400) (0.1%) 8.0% $400,728 37% 0.6
Hartford 1,224 1,435 13% (4,000) (0.7%) 8.5% $219,946 24% 0.0
New Haven 522 1,115 15% 1,100 0.4% 8.9% $215,175 26% 0.0
Norwich 297 360 13% (1,500) (1.1%) 8.3% $209,453 25% 0.0
Delaware
Dover 691 827 38% 400 0.6% 8.3% $188,552 32% 5.7
Wilmington (D) 1,010 1,224 19% 100 0.0% 8.4% $191,742 27% 2.2
District of Columbia
Washington D.C. (D) 7,701 10,338 27% 32,400 1.4% 5.9% $299,711 25% 1.3
Florida
Daytona Beach 582 659 8% 700 0.5% 11.9% $105,500 19% 0.7
Fort Lauderdale (D) 970 1,175 6% (3,500) (0.5%) 10.1% $170,000 26% 0.7
Fort Myers 1,167 1,238 4% (800) (0.4%) 12.9% $86,850 14% 0.2
Gainesville 382 516 16% 800 0.6% 7.8% $149,517 29% 0.0
Jacksonville 3,584 3,780 15% 300 0.1% 10.9% $146,000 22% 2.6
Lakeland 1,181 1,305 10% (400) (0.2%) 12.5% $95,000 17% 0.1
Melbourne 1,046 1,154 12% (2,000) (1.0%) 11.8% $100,000 16% 0.3
Miami (D) 958 3,417 13% 1,900 0.2% 13.1% $175,000 33% 2.1
Naples 750 1,225 15% 700 0.7% 12.2% $200,000 28% 0.8
Ocala 491 491 7% (900) (1.0%) 13.8% $87,313 17% 0.7
Orlando 4,329 5,154 14% 10,500 1.1% 11.2% $122,000 20% 0.1
Panama City 223 331 6% 800 1.1% 10.4% $152,377 25% 1.9
Pensacola 1,318 1,744 27% 900 0.6% 10.1% $125,221 22% 0.0
Port St. Lucie 440 469 4% 0 0.0% 13.7% $110,000 18% 0.4
Punta Gorda 254 390 8% 100 0.3% 12.3% $99,000 17% 0.1
Sarasota 1,745 2,197 15% 1,000 0.4% 11.8% $135,600 23% 0.7
Tallahassee 534 970 23% 800 0.5% 8.1% $133,822 23% 0.0
Tampa 4,362 7,018 19% (1,700) (0.2%) 11.8% $120,000 22% 1.2
Vero Beach 293 345 8% 200 0.5% 14.2% $125,300 23% 2.3
West Palm Beach (D) 1,240 1,472 6% 5,400 1.1% 11.7% $210,000 32% 3.9
Georgia
Albany 177 254 20% 200 0.3% 10.2% $84,095 18% 0.0
Athens 206 222 9% (2,500) (3.0%) 7.3% $124,022 24% 0.0
Atlanta 6,474 7,639 10% 7,600 0.3% 9.7% $119,173 16% 0.0
Augusta 2,374 2,443 45% 1,300 0.6% 8.6% $106,230 19% 0.0
Brunswick 407 407 32% (1,100) (2.6%) 9.4% $130,888 23% 0.0
Columbus 713 1,440 64% 800 0.7% 9.0% $98,614 20% 0.1
Dalton 100 111 10% (700) (1.1%) 11.6% $91,862 18% 0.0
Gainesville 215 215 8% (100) (0.1%) 8.8% $123,579 20% 0.1
Hinesville 207 207 24% 100 0.5% 8.1% $100,035 20% 0.0
Macon 266 266 14% (2,300) (2.4%) 9.8% $90,082 18% 0.1
Rome 54 54 8% (500) (1.3%) 9.9% $89,384 18% 0.1
Savannah 1,099 1,461 30% 1,000 0.7% 8.3% $133,467 23% 1.8
Valdosta 506 1,067 73% (100) (0.2%) 8.0% $99,267 22% 0.1
Warner Robins 588 588 28% (200) (0.3%) 7.4% $90,779 13% 0.0
Hawaii
Honolulu 902 1,880 38% 3,900 0.9% 5.5% $560,848 62% 3.7
Idaho
Boise City 1,753 1,825 16% (4,400) (1.7%) 9.5% $136,248 20% 0.0
Coeur D’Alene 502 602 22% (300) (0.5%) 10.1% $130,306 21% 0.0
Idaho Falls 325 409 21% (800) (1.6%) 6.9% $94,769 14% 0.1
Lewiston 69 78 19% (400) (1.5%) 7.1% $121,095 22% 0.8
Pocatello 157 160 23% (900) (2.4%) 8.0% $94,002 16% 0.0
Illinois
Bloomington 291 410 24% 0 0.0% 7.3% $156,987 23% 1.1
Champaign-Urbana 269 549 25% (200) (0.2%) 8.4% $138,134 26% 3.3
Chicago (D) 2,732 4,676 11% (45,000) (1.2%) 8.9% $187,000 27% 0.9
Danville 2 2 1% (200) (0.7%) 10.9% $54,971 12% 0.6
Decatur 89 91 15% (700) (1.3%) 10.9% $87,061 17% 2.4
Kankakee-Bradley 69 73 9% (300) (0.7%) 12.0% $124,977 21% 4.4
Lake-Kenosha (D) 627 928 14% (15,400) (4.0%) 9.6% $215,117 26% 0.9
Peoria 682 762 39% 300 0.2% 9.3% $113,619 19% 3.8
Rockford 298 304 12% 400 0.3% 14.4% $106,356 19% 5.1
Springfield 296 389 25% (700) (0.6%) 7.6% $115,043 18% 1.1
Indiana
Anderson 73 82 11% (900) (2.2%) 10.4% $78,202 15% 0.1
Bloomington 246 321 26% (300) (0.3%) 6.9% $124,633 25% 0.3
Columbus 126 126 21% 0 0.0% 8.4% $113,542 18% 0.1
Elkhart-Goshen 172 172 10% 1,500 1.5% 12.9% $100,904 17% 0.0
Evansville 623 731 34% (400) (0.2%) 8.1% $88,618 16% 0.1
Fort Wayne 878 952 26% 2,300 1.1% 9.4% $96,084 16% 1.0
Gary (D) 995 1,295 28% (1,700) (0.6%) 10.0% $121,101 19% 2.4
Indianapolis 3,753 5,703 33% 6,100 0.7% 8.5% $121,761 18% 1.7
Kokomo 18 18 2% 2,100 5.3% 10.7% $76,953 13% 0.1
Lafayette 476 585 32% 300 0.3% 8.0% $106,671 20% 0.0
Michigan City 145 169 28% 0 0.0% 10.6% $107,177 19% 0.3
Muncie 57 61 11% 200 0.4% 9.9% $72,662 16% 0.2
South Bend 241 378 19% (1,700) (1.3%) 10.5% $82,101 14% 0.7
Terre Haute 153 167 24% (100) (0.1%) 10.2% $74,795 15% 0.1
Iowa
Ames 114 176 19% 300 0.6% 4.4% $128,302 20% 0.0
Cedar Rapids 674 1,027 50% 500 0.4% 6.1% $141,710 22% 3.3
Davenport 445 556 37% 300 0.2% 8.2% $109,840 20% 4.2
Des Moines 2,070 2,651 42% (2,000) (0.6%) 6.2% $145,983 20% 0.7
Dubuque 351 470 54% 500 0.9% 6.1% $114,742 19% 0.6
Iowa City 475 591 35% 200 0.2% 4.5% $147,856 22% 0.1
Sioux City 251 277 23% (900) (1.2%) 7.1% $87,919 15% 0.1
Waterloo 349 370 44% 0 0.0% 5.8% $110,511 19% 4.3
Kansas
Lawrence 210 308 16% 300 0.6% 5.5% $138,626 22% 0.1
Topeka 275 369 27% 300 0.3% 6.6% $103,886 15% 0.0
Wichita 1,149 1,352 30% (600) (0.2%) 7.8% $118,508 17% 0.5
Kentucky
Bowling Green 364 552 40% 800 1.4% 8.9% $103,603 21% 0.5
Elizabethtown 587 715 54% 2,000 4.4% 8.4% $103,627 20% 1.2
Lexington 1,181 1,349 26% (3,100) (1.3%) 7.6% $142,587 25% 2.4
Louisville 2,063 2,616 29% (9,800) (1.6%) 9.4% $135,278 25% 4.8
Owensboro 278 344 31% 400 0.8% 8.0% $80,046 16% 0.4
Louisiana
Baton Rouge 2,860 2,982 33% (1,000) (0.3%) 8.1% $165,092 30% 4.8
Houma 394 393 33% (300) (0.3%) 6.0% $110,081 21% 2.0
Lafayette 801 872 17% 1,900 1.3% 6.6% $123,358 24% 0.0
Lake Charles 883 994 66% 1,800 2.0% 7.5% $101,582 21% 0.3
Monroe 287 306 25% (800) (1.0%) 8.5% $91,530 20% 0.0
New Orleans 1,846 2,060 16% 4,700 0.9% 8.1% $159,664 31% 4.9
Shreveport 1,119 1,287 42% 1,200 0.7% 7.7% $150,814 33% 5.4
Maine
Bangor 274 310 31% (300) (0.5%) 6.4% $109,362 21% 0.1
Lewiston-Auburn 160 212 25% (100) (0.2%) 7.0% $114,741 20% 0.0
Portland 1,290 1,320 23% (800) (0.4%) 5.5% $203,562 29% 1.4
Maryland
Baltimore 3,509 5,812 30% 13,700 1.1% 7.4% $264,900 35% 6.0
Bethesda (D) 1,812 2,902 24% 11,300 2.0% 5.4% $384,000 37% 5.8
Cumberland 74 133 33% (1,500) (3.8%) 8.3% $98,939 22% 3.2
Hagerstown 642 704 17% (700) (0.7%) 9.3% $143,441 23% 0.0
Salisbury 180 287 22% 300 0.6% 8.2% $119,853 23% 0.1
Massachusetts
Barnstable Town 405 430 9% (2,000) (2.0%) 7.5% $318,626 39% 0.5
Boston (D) 1,136 2,966 28% 13,200 0.8% 6.7% $341,091 37% 2.1
Cambridge (D) 1,388 1,845 25% 24,800 1.0% 7.0% $367,470 34% 0.4
Pittsfield 116 163 18% 200 0.6% 7.5% $175,121 27% 0.0
Springfield 523 635 13% (9,300) (3.2%) 8.6% $183,778 26% 0.3
Worcester 1,269 3,265 44% (3,600) (1.5%) 8.3% $226,457 25% 0.7
Michigan
Ann Arbor 307 371 13% 0 0.0% 7.8% $153,372 20% 0.0
Battle Creek 40 40 6% (900) (1.6%) 10.5% $77,166 15% 0.1
Bay City 34 34 8% (500) (1.4%) 10.9% $74,317 13% 0.0
Detroit (D) 418 619 10% (8,800) (1.3%) 14.4% $84,591 16% 0.0
Flint 90 92 3% 200 0.1% 13.0% $70,603 13% 0.0
Grand Rapids 880 910 18% 800 0.2% 10.0% $87,557 14% 0.3
Holland 398 435 16% (4,100) (3.9%) 10.6% $126,788 18% 0.1
Jackson 73 73 7% (500) (0.9%) 11.9% $86,913 16% 0.1
Kalamazoo 345 358 15% (1,800) (1.3%) 10.0% $106,414 19% 0.0
Lansing 364 369 12% (600) (0.3%) 9.2% $83,447 14% 0.6
Monroe 115 119 10% (1,500) (3.9%) 11.5% $109,927 15% 0.0
Muskegon 75 99 10% (400) (0.7%) 12.8% $79,085 16% 0.1
Niles 124 124 15% (600) (1.0%) 11.8% $107,891 20% 0.1
Saginaw 95 107 11% 100 0.1% 11.1% $50,528 9% 0.8
Warren (D) 1,858 2,242 11% (23,800) (2.3%) 12.6% $137,753 18% 0.0
Minnesota
Duluth 373 450 26% 1,800 1.4% 6.9% $104,261 20% 4.7
Minneapolis 3,938 5,820 21% 21,300 1.3% 6.5% $170,881 23% 1.4
Rochester 362 528 26% 2,000 1.9% 5.3% $123,149 17% 0.1
St. Cloud 337 401 20% (200) (0.2%) 6.1% $119,771 21% 1.7
Mississippi
Gulfport-Biloxi 1,234 1,567 29% (2,700) (2.5%) 8.6% $128,076 28% 4.4
Hattiesburg 63 63 6% 1,400 2.4% 8.1% $90,333 21% 0.1
Jackson 1,336 1,424 32% 300 0.1% 7.9% $130,458 26% 3.2
Pascagoula 388 461 30% (700) (1.2%) 9.3% $98,434 18% 0.1
Missouri
Columbia 528 562 24% 400 0.4% 6.0% $143,600 27% 1.5
Jefferson City 224 351 31% 0 0.0% 6.8% $107,617 19% 0.9
Joplin 165 192 26% 800 1.0% 8.1% $81,365 19% 0.1
Kansas City 2,027 3,159 17% (14,800) (1.5%) 8.5% $145,080 21% 1.7
Springfield 918 1,426 28% 2,500 1.3% 8.0% $110,168 22% 0.2
St. Joseph 89 134 31% 2,500 4.2% 7.6% $86,544 18% 0.7
St. Louis 4,294 5,864 32% 1,700 0.1% 9.3% $125,731 21% 1.1
Montana
Billings 339 463 32% (1,800) (2.2%) 5.1% $112,723 18% 0.1
Great Falls 159 179 56% (800) (2.2%) 5.7% $96,698 18% 0.0
Missoula 188 327 29% (200) (0.4%) 6.6% $156,230 28% 0.1
Nebraska
Lincoln 749 791 29% 200 0.1% 3.8% $133,348 18% 0.0
Omaha 2,455 2,961 45% (1,600) (0.3%) 4.9% $136,925 18% 0.0
Nevada
Carson City 14 32 5% (500) (1.7%) 12.5% $134,271 19% 0.0
Las Vegas 4,704 5,427 14% (25,100) (3.1%) 14.1% $132,000 18% 0.0
Reno 510 644 10% (5,400) (2.8%) 12.8% $173,000 24% 0.1
New Hampshire
Manchester 380 665 9% 1,300 1.3% 5.0% $236,138 22% 0.1
New Jersey
Atlantic City 417 504 13% 0 0.0% 11.5% $219,769 29% 3.6
Camden (D) 1,256 2,172 26% (9,700) (1.9%) 9.2% $193,119 21% 0.0
Edison (D) 2,838 4,532 19% (13,500) (1.4%) 8.1% $313,617 29% 2.7
Newark-Union (D) 1,459 2,558 28% (10,800) (1.1%) 8.7% $353,981 34% 1.0
Ocean City 274 444 18% (900) (2.2%) 10.4% $224,312 31% 1.6
Trenton 182 568 16% (4,300) (1.8%) 7.4% $253,432 26% 1.9
Vineland 225 267 36% (700) (1.2%) 11.9% $122,822 18% 0.0
New Mexico
Albuquerque 1,577 1,743 20% (6,100) (1.6%) 8.9% $205,668 35% 4.9
Farmington 206 292 50% (400) (0.8%) 9.1% $180,203 33% 4.5
Las Cruces 822 973 39% 2,000 2.9% 7.8% $99,836 22% 0.1
Santa Fe 99 99 8% (100) (0.2%) 7.0% $203,315 30% 0.1
New York
Albany 1,186 1,277 24% (1,900) (0.4%) 6.7% $194,799 28% 3.6
Binghamton 144 194 15% (200) (0.2%) 7.6% $107,821 20% 2.7
Buffalo 1,115 1,660 36% 1,200 0.2% 7.5% $115,347 21% 2.4
Elmira 30 62 21% 500 1.3% 7.7% $92,530 18% 2.3
Glens Falls 280 316 20% 300 0.5% 7.0% $148,121 26% 2.9
Ithaca 87 111 17% 700 1.1% 5.5% $145,296 26% 1.3
Kingston 160 271 19% 400 0.7% 7.4% $196,056 28% 1.2
Nassau (D) 1,338 1,549 14% 5,700 0.5% 6.9% $370,781 34% 3.8
New York (D) 1,452 9,135 22% 6,800 0.1% 8.9% $424,224 57% 3.3
Poughkeepsie 896 1,500 29% (1,000) (0.4%) 7.5% $205,782 24% 0.0
Rochester 1,181 1,309 25% 500 0.1% 7.3% $117,724 19% 2.1
Syracuse 815 1,068 31% 200 0.1% 7.6% $118,783 21% 3.0
Utica-Rome 228 323 24% (800) (0.6%) 7.1% $105,726 20% 1.8
North Carolina
Asheville 1,061 2,075 48% 2,400 1.5% 7.4% $160,578 31% 2.4
Burlington 478 882 44% 300 0.5% 9.7% $103,852 19% 0.0
Charlotte 4,846 5,833 23% 5,600 0.7% 10.2% $174,300 25% 2.7
Durham 1,504 2,075 32% 4,600 1.6% 6.6% $189,000 31% 1.1
Fayetteville 1,722 3,401 79% (800) (0.6%) 8.6% $103,856 19% 0.0
Goldsboro 265 265 38% (400) (0.9%) 7.9% $96,298 19% 0.0
Greensboro 1,348 2,028 32% (600) (0.2%) 9.7% $129,405 24% 0.0
Greenville 391 551 21% (900) (1.2%) 9.0% $100,603 21% 0.0
Hickory 418 472 19% (2,000) (1.4%) 11.7% $101,799 21% 0.0
Jacksonville 2,103 2,409 100% 600 1.3% 7.3% $127,078 23% 0.0
Raleigh-Cary 4,833 5,386 30% (300) (0.1%) 7.6% $196,600 27% 2.4
Rocky Mount 218 224 22% (600) (1.0%) 12.1% $86,816 18% 0.0
Wilmington 1,594 1,846 20% (1,400) (1.0%) 9.0% $207,400 37% 4.5
Winston-Salem 961 1,253 28% (1,200) (0.6%) 8.7% $116,181 21% 0.0
North Dakota
Bismarck 569 613 56% 300 0.5% 2.7% $160,778 20% 1.9
Fargo 759 1,403 50% 400 0.3% 3.2% $141,479 21% 0.1
Grand Forks 151 255 38% 500 0.9% 3.2% $118,418 19% 0.0
Ohio
Akron 669 733 18% (3,700) (1.2%) 9.3% $122,000 20% 2.4
Canton 308 346 22% 0 0.0% 10.6% $95,223 18% 1.7
Cincinnati 2,927 3,239 21% 5,700 0.6% 9.3% $120,955 17% 0.0
Cleveland 1,934 2,003 25% 9,800 1.0% 8.6% $106,486 17% 1.3
Columbus 2,921 4,808 28% (7,600) (0.8%) 8.4% $134,500 19% 1.0
Dayton 683 811 20% (2,400) (0.6%) 10.4% $100,083 17% 0.9
Lima 43 82 16% (400) (0.8%) 10.1% $87,010 16% 0.1
Mansfield 48 70 12% 1,400 2.6% 10.9% $85,602 17% 0.6
Sandusky 43 47 8% 1,000 2.7% 9.3% $106,897 17% 0.1
Springfield 54 58 9% (100) (0.2%) 10.2% $85,719 15% 0.0
Toledo 572 935 23% (2,400) (0.8%) 10.5% $80,560 14% 0.4
Youngstown 376 406 21% (1,800) (0.8%) 10.8% $70,568 14% 1.3
Oklahoma
Lawton 324 445 41% 800 1.8% 6.6% $91,901 16% 0.5
Oklahoma City 3,084 3,777 17% 7,000 1.3% 6.4% $140,006 20% 0.9
Tulsa 2,339 2,625 22% (800) (0.2%) 7.7% $131,135 20% 0.0
Oregon
Bend 351 363 8% (1,600) (2.6%) 13.4% $134,332 19% 0.0
Corvallis 70 88 11% (700) (1.9%) 6.7% $181,381 26% 0.0
Eugene 474 653 24% (100) (0.1%) 10.1% $200,278 34% 5.0
Medford 276 361 17% 100 0.1% 11.2% $143,650 26% 0.0
Portland 3,447 4,330 22% (8,100) (0.8%) 9.7% $227,250 31% 4.5
Salem 511 947 28% (2,400) (1.6%) 9.8% $155,000 25% 2.6
Pennsylvania
Allentown 1,151 1,335 25% 1,100 0.3% 9.1% $214,942 25% 2.3
Altoona 73 75 15% 1,100 1.8% 7.2% $92,724 15% 0.0
Erie 373 554 55% 1,300 1.0% 8.7% $104,983 18% 1.0
Harrisburg 1,314 1,523 41% (2,400) (0.7%) 7.7% $139,491 18% 0.0
Johnstown 66 66 18% (100) (0.2%) 9.0% $77,259 18% 1.8
Lancaster 1,214 1,443 40% 1,000 0.4% 7.2% $161,183 22% 1.0
Lebanon 261 261 31% 200 0.4% 7.1% $134,130 19% 0.5
Philadelphia (D) 3,245 4,416 25% 1,000 0.1% 8.7% $215,141 24% 2.2
Pittsburgh 3,014 3,360 48% 6,500 0.6% 7.6% $122,332 18% 0.3
Reading 346 352 16% 300 0.2% 8.9% $154,737 21% 3.5
Scranton 701 735 34% (100) 0.0% 9.4% $116,061 19% 0.0
State College 253 379 34% (700) (0.9%) 5.6% $154,167 24% 0.1
Williamsport 135 145 27% 800 1.5% 8.3% $107,109 18% 0.1
York 1,109 1,236 39% 1,500 0.9% 8.8% $145,119 19% 0.3
Rhode Island
Providence 1,294 1,517 13% (7,000) (1.3%) 11.0% $209,019 29% 0.0
South Carolina
Anderson 285 421 22% (700) (1.2%) 10.6% $93,439 18% 0.1
Charleston 2,749 3,044 28% 5,300 1.9% 8.8% $217,452 35% 4.9
Columbia 2,645 3,028 37% (200) (0.1%) 8.7% $130,000 22% 2.7
Florence 300 374 29% 2,000 2.4% 10.8% $111,481 23% 1.3
Greenville 1,461 1,596 29% 2,300 0.8% 9.0% $141,200 26% 5.2
Myrtle Beach 1,402 1,583 13% 5,200 4.6% 10.6% $142,651 28% 0.1
Spartanburg 593 593 22% 0 0.0% 10.4% $116,714 22% 1.6
Sumter 304 368 40% (200) (0.6%) 11.8% $93,155 20% 0.0
South Dakota
Rapid City 447 651 47% 500 0.8% 4.2% $119,595 19% 0.1
Sioux Falls 897 1,289 51% 200 0.1% 4.2% $137,856 18% 0.3
Tennessee
Chattanooga 976 1,086 28% 3,400 1.5% 8.2% $120,757 24% 0.2
Clarksville 1,155 1,687 53% 900 1.1% 9.2% $97,724 19% 0.2
Cleveland 264 556 59% 200 0.5% 8.8% $102,041 23% 0.0
Jackson 262 262 23% (100) (0.2%) 9.4% $82,659 18% 0.1
Johnson City 465 671 47% (300) (0.4%) 8.3% $109,751 27% 0.6
Kingsport 505 586 38% 900 0.8% 8.1% $106,258 25% 0.4
Knoxville 1,530 2,481 38% 1,400 0.4% 7.3% $136,288 28% 1.3
Memphis 1,747 2,599 24% (8,100) (1.4%) 9.5% $116,234 23% 1.5
Morristown 225 233 31% (200) (0.4%) 10.6% $95,896 22% 0.1
Nashville 3,993 5,135 28% (3,100) (0.4%) 8.3% $149,950 26% 3.9
Texas
Abilene 283 401 19% 300 0.5% 6.3% $113,800 23% 5.0
Amarillo 594 611 17% 1,900 1.7% 5.4% $125,500 22% 3.7
Austin 6,210 7,205 27% 18,200 2.4% 6.8% $195,000 27% 4.4
Beaumont 1,341 1,483 52% 2,100 1.3% 10.4% $138,500 26% 5.3
Brownsville 1,053 1,102 28% 2,400 1.9% 11.1% $138,500 37% 6.0
College Station 803 926 26% 1,800 1.8% 5.9% $138,500 28% 2.2
Corpus Christi 1,008 1,133 18% 2,000 1.1% 7.9% $134,200 26% 4.3
Dallas (D) 10,796 14,176 19% 16,600 0.8% 8.0% $156,000 22% 1.3
El Paso 2,811 4,460 69% (1,700) (0.6%) 9.9% $134,400 31% 5.0
Fort Worth (D) 5,024 5,791 15% 8,200 1.0% 7.9% $135,756 20% 1.3
Houston 22,875 28,630 38% 6,200 0.2% 8.2% $148,900 22% 2.6
Killeen 1,928 2,263 50% 2,200 1.7% 7.6% $121,426 21% 2.5
Laredo 638 734 31% 1,200 1.4% 8.1% $83,005 19% 0.0
Longview 233 343 22% 1,700 1.8% 7.1% $128,600 24% 4.2
Lubbock 739 1,238 30% (300) (0.2%) 5.9% $114,100 22% 0.6
McAllen 2,740 3,303 36% 4,300 2.0% 11.3% $97,000 25% 0.3
Midland 394 394 10% 1,000 1.5% 5.1% $124,204 20% 2.7
Odessa 261 701 33% 1,200 2.1% 7.4% $113,000 21% 2.2
San Angelo 195 195 13% 500 1.1% 6.3% $109,200 22% 3.7
San Antonio 5,348 6,379 29% 5,700 0.7% 7.3% $148,700 26% 4.5
Sherman 90 95 9% 600 1.4% 8.1% $95,000 17% 2.9
Texarkana 86 207 25% 1,100 2.0% 7.1% $78,854 15% 0.0
Tyler 158 217 7% 1,500 1.6% 7.6% $136,000 22% 0.6
Victoria 111 111 6% 700 1.5% 7.3% $118,600 21% 1.9
Waco 437 583 20% 1,900 1.8% 6.9% $127,100 26% 3.8
Wichita Falls 169 203 23% 900 1.6% 7.2% $100,700 19% 1.9
Utah
Logan 431 715 51% 300 0.6% 5.4% $120,908 19% 0.1
Ogden-Clearfield 1,451 1,603 31% (1,300) (0.7%) 7.4% $127,348 16% 0.0
Provo-Orem 1,542 1,992 31% (1,000) (0.6%) 7.3% $131,418 16% 0.0
Salt Lake City 1,922 2,705 22% (7,500) (1.2%) 7.3% $197,549 24% 2.4
St. George 891 914 24% (1,700) (3.6%) 9.5% $120,199 18% 0.0
Virginia
Charlottesville 644 1,506 57% 800 0.8% 5.4% $197,829 24% 0.0
Danville 83 123 24% (500) (1.3%) 10.6% $84,640 20% 0.1
Harrisonburg 370 443 34% 1,400 2.2% 6.1% $157,768 23% 0.0
Lynchburg 681 838 46% (3,700) (3.5%) 7.4% $129,792 21% 0.1
Richmond 2,652 3,842 34% (3,100) (0.5%) 7.4% $185,000 26% 1.3
Roanoke 436 468 24% 0 0.0% 6.9% $133,467 21% 0.1
Virginia Beach 3,413 4,647 20% 10,200 1.4% 7.0% $198,233 28% 2.7
Winchester 325 327 18% (700) (1.3%) 7.0% $132,656 19% 0.0
Washington
Bellingham 420 443 17% 200 0.3% 7.3% $193,732 35% 3.8
Bremerton 478 485 19% 600 0.7% 6.8% $249,860 35% 5.5
Kennewick 1,738 1,742 53% 4,700 4.8% 5.9% $170,725 28% 5.1
Longview 117 132 19% (300) (0.8%) 11.0% $134,990 25% 1.7
Mount Vernon 239 248 22% (400) (0.9%) 9.0% $170,296 28% 0.2
Olympia 1,014 1,146 36% (100) (0.1%) 7.1% $222,000 32% 5.7
Seattle (D) 4,431 7,451 27% 10,700 0.8% 8.8% $341,000 43% 5.7
Spokane 1,063 1,477 34% (3,600) (1.7%) 7.9% $160,950 29% 5.1
Tacoma (D) 1,638 1,779 26% (1,800) (0.7%) 8.6% $211,900 30% 3.5
Wenatchee 355 369 33% (700) (1.8%) 6.3% $171,773 31% 1.0
Yakima 430 512 42% 900 1.1% 6.9% $149,022 28% 3.2
West Virginia
Charleston 309 328 39% 300 0.2% 7.9% $125,839 27% 3.2
Huntington 104 193 31% 200 0.2% 8.3% $85,208 20% 0.7
Morgantown 26 76 29% 200 0.3% 6.0% $116,318 24% 0.1
Parkersburg 116 159 36% 1,100 1.6% 8.4% $85,446 18% 0.1
Wheeling 20 20 7% 700 1.0% 9.2% $73,457 17% 0.2
Wisconsin
Appleton 408 595 27% 900 0.8% 6.4% $120,257 18% 2.0
Eau Claire 300 384 27% 300 0.4% 6.0% $110,514 19% 1.4
Fond Du Lac 154 356 58% 500 1.1% 6.7% $114,976 19% 1.0
Green Bay 763 2,085 67% 1,900 1.2% 6.7% $132,438 22% 1.3
Janesville 150 154 12% (100) (0.2%) 9.5% $108,230 19% 1.8
La Crosse 245 255 30% 500 0.7% 5.5% $117,690 21% 2.1
Madison 807 1,426 23% 1,600 0.5% 5.2% $208,936 30% 3.9
Milwaukee 971 1,779 21% (8,600) (1.1%) 7.7% $203,358 33% 5.2
Oshkosh-Neenah 296 498 34% 600 0.7% 6.3% $109,938 18% 0.1
Racine 181 191 15% (400) (0.5%) 8.5% $131,597 21% 3.0
Sheboygan 59 67 9% 400 0.7% 7.2% $122,289 21% 3.0
Wausau 298 313 22% 300 0.4% 7.2% $113,589 18% 0.9
Wyoming
Casper 288 795 100% 100 0.3% 6.7% $105,803 17% 0.0
Cheyenne 231 273 31% (1,000) (2.3%) 6.9% $113,224 16% 0.1
* The government defines metro areas and includes metro divisions within some areas. In these instances, we report at the more detailed division level, because that is what most of our clients use for decision making. For example, we report on the Los Angeles and Orange County divisions separately, rather than the Los Angeles MSA, which includes both Los Angeles and Orange counties. We also use the more colloquial names used by business people, so we refer to the “Santa Ana-Anaheim-Irvine” division as “Orange County.” For the government definitions, visit: http://www.census.gov/population/www/metroareas/lists/2007/List1.txt

 


John Burns If you have any questions, please contact John Burns at (949) 870-1210 or by email.

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