Fort Myers: Finding Bottom, But With A Crash Landing | John Burns Real Estate Consulting

Fort Myers: Finding Bottom, But With A Crash Landing


The Fort Myers housing market can be likened to a roller coaster ride over the last six years. The market emerged from nowhere to become a top-10 housing market as a wave of investors drove up home prices, and builders increased supply to meet demand. Reaching the top in 2005 after an unprecedented wave of construction and price appreciation, the descent has been rapid and resulted in a number of bankruptcies.

We have done a significant amount of work in Fort Myers, and we believe the market has reached bottom – a bottom that makes new home construction infeasible in all but the best locations. Sales velocity is improving across the metro area, driven by foreclosures and steep price discounts. In many submarkets of Fort Myers, we are seeing a stronger pace of sales, and these sales are based primarily on price. In one submarket, we saw 43 new homes (built after 2005) close over the last five months with a selling price under $100,000. As a result, homebuilders with existing inventory are forced to compete with these rock-bottom prices, and additional construction makes no sense.

We examine the Fort Myers housing market in more detail below:

Permits: In our last discussion of Fort Myers, dated January 2006 we noted that “while the demographics for housing are strong, they don’t explain a sustainable 18,000-unit per year surge in building permits.” This was certainly the case. Fort Myers permit issuance peaked in 2005 with nearly 30,000 permits issued, in comparison to the average permit issuance of 9,000 per year from 1997 to 2002 in the metro area. Additionally, the number of permits issued in 2005 was only slightly less than Orlando’s total permit issuance for the year, and Orlando’s population is more than three times the size of Fort Myers’!

Homes Sales: Resale home sales in Fort Myers also peaked in 2005, and dropped sharply thereafter, leaving a large amount of inventory in the Fort Myers housing market. The current resale home sales level is 10,840 – less than one-third the level of 2005, and slightly below the levels seen in 1998. Although total home sales velocity in Fort Myers has improved on a month-to-month basis, overall activity is below 1998 levels.

Home Prices: Home prices have fallen as a result of oversupply and weak demand. The current median home price in Fort Myers is $138,750 – a return to pre-boom 2002 levels.

Foreclosures: The turmoil in Fort Myers’ housing market has resulted in a rising number of foreclosures. Fort Myers currently ranks sixth in the nation for number of foreclosures, with one pre-foreclosure notice filed for every 66 households – six times the national average.

In summary, one of the first markets to decline seems to be finding bottom first. With a very small and declining economy, we suspect it will be a while before Fort Myers recovers. However, patient investors will probably be rewarded for buying well-located assets at below replacement cost.

This is the most current available data for all variables and markets.

 

Permits Statistics
Employment Statistics
Affordability
12-
12-
Total
NF Payroll Employment
State
Metro Area
Month
S. Fam. Permits
Month
Total Permits
Permits / Peak Permits
1-Yr Growth
1-Yr Growth Rate
Unemp Rate
Median Home Price
Housing Costs / Income
Housing Cycle Barometer
Alabama
Anniston-Oxford 195 209 43% 500 0.9% 5.2% $90,537 20% 0.0
Auburn-Opelika 916 1,117 51% 900 1.6% 4.6% $138,475 29% 0.0
Birmingham 2,949 4,243 54% 1,200 0.2% 4.7% $160,249 28% 0.5
Decatur 253 329 35% 200 0.3% 4.9% $102,698 22% 0.3
Dothan 366 366 49% (100) (0.2%) 4.9% $95,023 21% 0.0
Florence 293 448 57% 400 0.7% 5.5% $97,893 21% 0.1
Huntsville 2,372 3,140 63% 4,900 2.3% 3.9% $127,909 20% 0.0
Mobile 1,507 2,263 74% 1,400 0.8% 5.6% $133,172 28% 3.6
Montgomery 654 1,074 41% 1,000 0.6% 5.4% $138,930 26% 1.7
Tuscaloosa 656 1,538 59% 400 0.4% 4.6% $126,352 28% 0.0
Alaska
Anchorage 296 570 6% 1,300 0.8% 5.6% $210,030 25% 2.9
Arizona
Flagstaff 325 337 25% (200) (0.3%) 5.1% $231,770 43% 5.5
Phoenix 14,818 23,323 34% (42,300) (2.2%) 5.1% $185,500 30% 3.8
Prescott 835 928 21% (900) (1.4%) 5.5% $203,698 41% 4.2
Tucson 3,062 4,002 31% (5,300) (1.4%) 5.4% $191,000 37% 5.2
Yuma 943 1,023 38% (400) (0.8%) 22.7% $171,000 37% 5.5
Arkansas
Fayetteville 1,448 2,856 38% 1,500 0.7% 3.5% $117,615 19% 0.0
Fort Smith 522 755 57% 0 0.0% 4.3% $79,574 16% 0.0
Little Rock 2,057 3,109 54% 2,300 0.7% 4.0% $131,684 21% 1.4
California
Bakersfield 2,013 3,003 34% 2,700 1.1% 9.5% $170,000 34% 5.1
Chico 601 648 33% 100 0.1% 8.5% $245,000 51% 6.2
El Centro 289 397 18% (500) (1.1%) 24.7% $174,000 40% 4.4
Fresno 2,566 3,229 44% (1,700) (0.6%) 9.7% $185,500 37% 5.3
Hanford 273 283 21% 400 1.1% 9.5% $165,000 33% 5.7
Los Angeles 4,190 14,134 20% (16,800) (0.4%) 8.2% $385,000 63% 5.5
Madera 306 309 14% 300 0.9% 8.9% $180,000 40% 5.7
Merced 311 420 12% 1,600 2.7% 11.2% $140,000 29% 1.5
Modesto 701 1,027 16% (700) (0.4%) 10.6% $180,000 32% 2.5
Monterey 375 876 31% 1,400 1.1% 6.8% $297,500 46% 1.8
Napa 283 343 34% (900) (1.4%) 5.3% $425,000 55% 5.3
Oakland 2,292 4,906 21% (19,400) (1.9%) 6.8% $363,909 45% 2.5
Orange County 1,510 4,603 19% (26,600) (1.8%) 5.8% $500,000 59% 5.6
Redding 350 516 22% (800) (1.2%) 9.6% $222,000 44% 5.6
Riverside-San Bernardino 7,356 10,678 19% (25,200) (2.0%) 9.2% $225,000 36% 4.2
Sacramento 4,219 5,573 23% (11,200) (1.2%) 7.4% $240,000 35% 3.4
San Diego 2,332 6,008 14% (5,700) (0.4%) 6.4% $376,000 53% 4.1
San Francisco 706 3,832 57% 6,100 0.6% 5.5% $745,000 87% 6.6
San Jose 1,177 2,799 28% (1,500) (0.2%) 6.6% $569,000 60% 5.8
San Luis Obispo 756 1,035 29% (1,100) (1.1%) 6.2% $426,000 73% 6.5
Santa Barbara 265 291 11% (1,200) (0.7%) 5.5% $277,909 44% 1.5
Santa Cruz 343 613 43% 200 0.2% 6.2% $525,000 71% 5.3
Santa Rosa 671 860 15% 1,400 0.7% 6.1% $376,000 52% 4.6
Stockton 1,045 1,259 18% (700) (0.3%) 10.2% $200,000 33% 1.6
Vallejo-Fairfield 308 612 10% (1,800) (1.4%) 7.4% $267,500 37% 3.8
Ventura 484 1,277 17% (8,600) (2.9%) 7.1% $440,000 51% 4.9
Visalia-Porterville 1,596 1,932 54% (1,000) (0.9%) 10.6% $170,000 34% 5.0
Yuba-Sutter 226 292 10% (3,000) (7.1%) 11.2% $171,000 34% 2.8
Colorado
Boulder 273 580 11% 2,800 1.7% 4.6% $330,240 38% 4.9
Colorado Springs 1,896 2,298 21% (100) 0.0% 6.0% $195,000 26% 1.6
Denver 4,850 10,656 37% 13,700 1.1% 5.4% $219,000 28% 2.7
Fort Collins 810 1,335 36% 600 0.4% 4.4% $218,900 29% 2.7
Grand Junction 836 932 46% 2,800 4.4% 4.0% $178,858 30% 4.1
Greeley 995 1,171 27% 2,300 2.8% 5.3% $170,745 23% 1.0
Pueblo 425 439 31% 600 1.0% 6.6% $95,489 19% 0.0
Connecticut
Bridgeport 849 1,607 31% 1,500 0.4% 6.0% $416,594 44% 0.0
Hartford 1,383 2,259 21% 8,100 1.5% 6.6% $241,199 32% 2.5
New Haven 666 1,019 14% 300 0.1% 6.8% $262,270 37% 3.4
Delaware
Dover 952 1,137 52% 0 0.0% 5.2% $195,593 34% 6.2
Wilmington 1,038 1,794 28% 600 0.2% 5.3% $220,541 32% 5.5
District of Columbia
Washington D.C. 7,885 13,436 35% 37,700 1.6% 4.3% $335,164 34% 5.1
Florida
Daytona Beach 1,066 1,479 19% (1,500) (0.9%) 7.2% $145,250 30% 4.6
Fort Lauderdale 1,097 2,771 14% (10,100) (1.3%) 6.1% $264,800 44% 6.1
Fort Myers 1,360 1,768 6% (8,600) (3.8%) 9.0% $138,750 24% 0.6
Fort Walton Beach 412 526 14% (2,200) (2.5%) 4.7% $198,315 31% 5.0
Gainesville 551 1,214 37% 1,600 1.2% 4.9% $183,819 43% 5.6
Jacksonville 5,397 8,121 32% (4,800) (0.8%) 6.5% $185,000 31% 5.8
Lakeland 2,717 3,748 28% (4,700) (2.2%) 7.8% $145,000 30% 5.4
Melbourne 1,315 2,057 21% (2,300) (1.1%) 7.2% $148,750 27% 5.0
Miami 1,529 4,232 16% (8,100) (0.8%) 6.1% $269,000 54% 7.0
Naples 679 1,127 14% (4,000) (3.2%) 8.4% $265,000 40% 4.1
Ocala 1,489 1,532 21% (2,000) (1.9%) 8.5% $133,250 28% 5.4
Orlando 6,498 12,531 35% 1,400 0.1% 6.3% $200,000 34% 5.9
Panama City 483 749 14% (1,700) (2.2%) 5.4% $194,364 36% 6.2
Pensacola 1,276 1,602 25% (1,800) (1.0%) 6.1% $151,254 28% 3.9
Port St. Lucie 1,217 1,560 15% 200 0.2% 9.2% $153,464 27% 4.0
Sarasota 1,753 2,212 15% (9,000) (3.1%) 7.3% $198,950 35% 5.6
Tallahassee 1,342 2,092 49% (2,200) (1.2%) 5.3% $165,544 35% 4.6
Tampa 5,935 10,144 27% (21,800) (1.7%) 6.9% $160,000 31% 5.3
West Palm Beach 1,550 2,605 11% (5,200) (0.9%) 7.3% $255,000 41% 5.6
Georgia
Albany 317 403 32% (800) (1.2%) 6.7% $92,093 22% 2.0
Athens 666 828 35% 1,400 1.7% 5.6% $138,639 30% 0.9
Atlanta 16,592 25,272 34% (20,100) (0.8%) 6.3% $155,450 22% 1.5
Augusta 2,028 2,439 45% 400 0.2% 6.7% $116,068 22% 1.3
Columbus 842 1,241 55% (600) (0.5%) 6.7% $108,317 22% 0.4
Dalton 306 418 38% (1,600) (2.0%) 6.8% $110,272 22% 2.1
Gainesville 559 568 22% 400 0.5% 5.5% $145,968 27% 3.1
Macon 698 1,031 55% (200) (0.2%) 6.6% $99,064 21% 0.2
Savannah 1,748 2,292 47% (800) (0.5%) 5.8% $149,237 28% 5.0
Valdosta 802 957 66% (400) (0.7%) 5.8% $110,616 26% 2.9
Warner Robins 746 951 45% (200) (0.3%) 5.5% $102,506 17% 0.3
Hawaii
Honolulu 710 1,600 32% 1,100 0.2% 3.9% $591,722 73% 5.1
Idaho
Boise City 2,830 3,505 30% (2,900) (1.0%) 4.7% $181,626 27% 3.7
Coeur D’Alene 742 941 35% (300) (0.5%) 4.3% $184,510 32% 4.9
Illinois
Bloomington 323 476 28% 500 0.6% 5.8% $149,487 25% 0.0
Champaign-Urbana 431 826 38% (600) (0.6%) 6.6% $140,799 27% 3.8
Chicago 7,806 18,892 43% (8,000) (0.2%) 7.1% $243,500 35% 5.1
Decatur 127 139 23% 0 0.0% 8.3% $76,645 16% 0.2
Lake-Kenosha 1,256 1,482 23% 2,600 0.6% 6.9% $254,348 30% 2.3
Peoria 875 1,079 56% 1,500 0.8% 6.3% $122,160 21% 5.3
Rockford 465 641 24% (200) (0.1%) 9.5% $115,948 20% 5.4
Springfield 326 586 38% (700) (0.6%) 6.6% $109,403 19% 1.8
Indiana
Bloomington 319 647 53% 600 0.8% 5.2% $125,816 26% 0.5
Elkhart-Goshen 407 625 38% (5,000) (3.8%) 8.9% $113,801 19% 1.3
Evansville 643 969 45% (300) (0.2%) 5.5% $95,764 18% 1.1
Fort Wayne 788 928 25% 0 0.0% 6.2% $92,400 16% 0.1
Gary 1,492 2,043 44% (200) (0.1%) 6.1% $131,398 21% 1.4
Indianapolis 5,141 7,298 43% (600) (0.1%) 5.5% $114,611 18% 0.2
Lafayette 530 547 30% (1,800) (1.9%) 5.1% $109,662 22% 0.0
Muncie 80 84 15% (500) (0.9%) 7.2% $75,725 17% 0.0
South Bend 529 768 39% (2,600) (1.8%) 7.1% $86,271 16% 0.1
Terre Haute 159 294 43% (1,200) (1.6%) 7.3% $79,518 18% 0.3
Iowa
Cedar Rapids 771 988 48% 1,100 0.8% 4.5% $133,585 23% 3.6
Davenport 506 950 62% (100) (0.1%) 5.5% $82,958 15% 0.0
Des Moines 2,187 2,910 46% 1,700 0.5% 4.0% $155,748 23% 3.7
Dubuque 224 261 30% 200 0.4% 4.1% $116,768 21% 0.2
Iowa City 654 740 44% 200 0.2% 3.4% $151,235 27% 0.1
Sioux City 203 221 19% (1,000) (1.3%) 3.9% $88,932 17% 0.2
Waterloo 352 376 45% 400 0.5% 4.1% $113,013 21% 5.6
Kansas
Topeka 514 762 55% 1,600 1.5% 5.2% $107,808 19% 3.0
Wichita 2,028 2,613 57% (2,100) (0.7%) 4.6% $119,082 20% 3.7
Kentucky
Bowling Green 408 513 37% 800 1.3% 5.3% $109,854 23% 0.5
Lexington 1,671 2,696 53% 900 0.4% 5.3% $142,176 27% 3.8
Louisville 3,040 4,212 47% 2,100 0.3% 6.6% $133,229 25% 4.4
Louisiana
Alexandria 499 515 54% (100) (0.2%) 5.0% $94,570 20% 0.0
Baton Rouge 2,974 4,830 53% 1,200 0.3% 5.0% $162,646 27% 3.1
Houma 648 909 76% 2,300 2.4% 3.2% $114,132 19% 0.0
Lafayette 980 1,293 25% 2,500 1.7% 3.5% $130,322 24% 0.0
Lake Charles 761 837 56% 500 0.5% 4.7% $106,169 19% 0.0
Monroe 277 347 29% 100 0.1% 5.7% $94,538 20% 0.0
New Orleans 3,400 5,451 41% 12,100 2.3% 4.7% $161,846 26% 0.9
Shreveport 1,109 1,676 55% 2,800 1.6% 5.7% $135,959 27% 3.8
Maine
Bangor 325 564 57% 200 0.3% 5.0% $130,052 26% 3.0
Portland 1,433 1,662 29% 400 0.2% 3.6% $226,127 34% 2.7
Maryland
Baltimore 3,381 5,896 30% 4,700 0.4% 4.8% $267,032 37% 8.0
Bethesda 1,609 2,452 20% 6,900 1.2% 3.3% $424,000 42% 6.8
Hagerstown 1,215 1,527 37% 500 0.5% 5.1% $184,823 28% 2.8
Salisbury 342 509 39% (100) (0.2%) 5.1% $152,281 29% 3.9
Massachusetts
Barnstable Town 575 758 15% (1,300) (1.1%) 4.3% $339,885 47% 1.5
Boston 1,422 4,127 39% 17,800 1.0% 4.5% $355,673 45% 4.2
Cambridge 1,381 2,576 34% 15,800 0.6% 4.8% $377,011 41% 2.5
Michigan
Ann Arbor 334 396 14% (1,100) (0.6%) 6.4% $173,194 26% 0.0
Battle Creek 78 94 15% (1,000) (1.7%) 8.0% $89,960 17% 1.1
Detroit 684 990 16% (33,400) (4.3%) 10.4% $90,312 18% 0.0
Flint 224 266 8% (7,100) (4.9%) 10.5% $92,821 19% 2.1
Grand Rapids 1,222 1,378 27% (900) (0.2%) 7.4% $106,292 19% 0.5
Holland 494 799 29% (2,000) (1.8%) 7.2% $144,653 22% 0.6
Jackson 143 285 28% (1,000) (1.7%) 9.2% $102,104 20% 3.7
Kalamazoo 592 816 33% (1,700) (1.2%) 7.1% $114,243 22% 1.6
Lansing 349 412 13% (3,800) (1.7%) 7.2% $96,338 17% 0.0
Muskegon 212 231 23% (200) (0.3%) 9.1% $92,415 19% 0.1
Niles 205 215 26% (1,400) (2.1%) 8.2% $123,496 25% 5.1
Saginaw 165 218 22% (2,000) (2.3%) 8.5% $64,011 14% 0.0
Warren 1,733 2,119 11% (25,500) (2.2%) 7.8% $154,473 21% 0.0
Minnesota
Duluth 632 802 47% 200 0.2% 6.5% $113,475 22% 6.5
Minneapolis 5,030 6,636 24% (3,300) (0.2%) 5.7% $218,000 29% 4.1
Rochester 482 583 29% 1,100 1.0% 4.7% $134,402 19% 1.3
St. Cloud 435 586 29% (200) (0.2%) 5.7% $137,010 23% 3.5
Mississippi
Gulfport-Biloxi 2,009 3,723 68% (500) (0.4%) 6.2% $135,529 26% 1.4
Hattiesburg 171 961 85% (1,000) (1.6%) 6.6% $99,239 23% 0.0
Jackson 2,210 2,268 50% (2,000) (0.8%) 6.3% $123,922 24% 0.6
Pascagoula 560 1,742 100% 1,000 1.7% 7.3% $111,546 22% 3.0
Missouri
Columbia 702 852 36% 900 1.0% 4.7% $129,218 26% 2.4
Jefferson City 171 184 16% 300 0.4% 5.6% $109,488 20% 3.3
Joplin 208 280 38% 600 0.8% 5.7% $85,936 21% 2.7
Kansas City 3,532 6,585 36% (4,200) (0.4%) 6.2% $145,186 22% 0.0
Springfield 1,239 2,934 57% 2,500 1.3% 5.3% $121,015 26% 3.4
St. Joseph 107 129 30% (400) (0.7%) 5.3% $89,440 18% 0.8
St. Louis 5,609 6,845 37% (11,100) (0.8%) 7.2% $187,969 32% 6.2
Montana
Billings 603 628 43% 1,400 1.7% 3.2% $137,893 24% 0.6
Missoula 382 536 48% (1,400) (2.4%) 3.7% $199,280 39% 4.7
Nebraska
Lincoln 769 968 36% 1,400 0.8% 3.0% $132,092 21% 2.0
Omaha 3,222 4,878 74% 1,900 0.4% 3.6% $136,476 21% 2.8
Nevada
Las Vegas 7,574 20,131 51% (400) 0.0% 7.1% $209,000 32% 3.8
Reno 1,243 1,527 24% (4,900) (2.2%) 6.6% $248,500 38% 5.2
New Hampshire
Manchester 462 762 11% 0 0.0% 4.2% $201,107 22% 0.6
New Jersey
Atlantic City 767 878 22% 300 0.2% 6.7% $251,727 44% 7.0
Camden 1,918 2,705 32% 1,600 0.3% 5.8% $219,436 32% 5.5
Edison 3,046 5,780 24% (6,000) (0.6%) 5.3% $362,199 46% 9.2
Newark-Union 2,118 4,704 51% (2,200) (0.2%) 5.7% $404,983 54% 6.9
Trenton 316 602 17% (1,400) (0.6%) 5.3% $307,544 43% 6.3
Vineland 381 394 54% (1,300) (2.1%) 8.2% $158,599 31% 5.8
New Mexico
Albuquerque 2,286 2,860 32% (600) (0.2%) 4.8% $218,506 37% 5.0
Las Cruces 949 992 40% 800 1.2% 4.7% $123,229 27% 1.3
Santa Fe 165 165 13% (600) (0.9%) 4.0% $262,084 38% 2.5
New York
Albany 1,318 2,451 46% 1,400 0.3% 5.0% $200,314 33% 5.0
Binghamton 295 337 26% (200) (0.2%) 5.6% $118,759 24% 4.4
Buffalo 1,181 1,372 30% 2,000 0.4% 6.0% $103,455 21% 2.0
Glens Falls 376 429 27% (900) (1.5%) 4.9% $151,538 30% 3.7
Ithaca 154 284 43% 100 0.2% 4.7% $158,553 31% 4.1
Kingston 255 448 32% 100 0.2% 5.7% $243,881 40% 4.7
Nassau 2,290 3,467 30% 7,900 0.6% 5.2% $452,330 47% 7.9
New York 2,492 49,761 100% 33,900 0.7% 5.8% $477,338 76% 6.5
Poughkeepsie 992 1,682 33% 700 0.3% 5.5% $250,676 33% 3.4
Rochester 1,487 1,853 36% (7,100) (1.4%) 5.7% $118,237 21% 3.8
Syracuse 921 1,094 32% (700) (0.2%) 5.7% $119,386 23% 3.7
Utica-Rome 344 392 30% (1,000) (0.7%) 5.3% $105,371 23% 3.1
North Carolina
Asheville 2,313 3,045 71% 2,100 1.2% 5.5% $180,822 36% 4.9
Burlington 872 924 46% (700) (1.1%) 7.4% $113,210 22% 0.0
Charlotte 9,752 15,241 61% 10,900 1.3% 7.1% $168,000 27% 3.4
Durham 2,129 2,482 38% 5,200 1.8% 5.4% $179,519 31% 4.4
Fayetteville 1,661 2,230 52% 1,900 1.5% 7.0% $108,037 21% 0.1
Greensboro 2,561 3,821 60% 2,700 0.7% 7.1% $149,777 29% 0.2
Greenville 907 1,903 74% 1,500 2.0% 7.5% $110,139 23% 0.0
Hickory 1,083 1,128 46% (1,500) (0.9%) 8.4% $109,252 22% 0.0
Raleigh-Cary 8,885 14,708 83% 10,600 2.0% 5.4% $205,000 29% 3.7
Rocky Mount 604 622 60% 800 1.2% 9.9% $96,366 20% 0.4
Wilmington 4,084 4,929 54% 2,800 1.9% 6.1% $206,055 38% 5.1
Winston-Salem 2,577 2,589 58% 8,000 3.7% 6.6% $124,880 23% 0.0
North Dakota
Bismarck 625 956 87% 1,200 2.0% 2.8% $134,881 20% 1.4
Fargo 1,015 1,625 58% 800 0.7% 3.1% $138,609 22% 1.1
Grand Forks 182 240 36% 1,100 2.1% 4.1% $124,185 23% 3.0
Ohio
Akron 1,028 1,238 31% (900) (0.3%) 6.7% $123,000 21% 1.9
Canton 394 515 33% 600 0.3% 7.3% $95,638 17% 0.0
Cincinnati 3,727 5,203 33% (1,200) (0.1%) 6.3% $166,000 26% 3.5
Cleveland 2,670 2,975 37% (5,500) (0.5%) 7.4% $108,009 18% 0.0
Columbus 3,054 4,740 28% 6,000 0.6% 6.2% $145,000 22% 1.9
Dayton 1,233 1,441 35% (3,900) (1.0%) 7.5% $107,705 18% 0.2
Lima 123 130 26% 600 1.1% 7.8% $91,831 16% 0.0
Mansfield 96 148 25% (700) (1.2%) 7.6% $92,212 18% 0.2
Springfield 103 217 32% (400) (0.8%) 7.5% $98,046 17% 0.0
Toledo 907 1,513 37% (5,800) (1.8%) 8.7% $94,729 16% 0.0
Youngstown 438 534 28% 1,300 0.5% 7.8% $69,221 13% 0.0
Oklahoma
Oklahoma City 4,260 5,007 23% 7,800 1.4% 3.8% $129,649 22% 2.9
Tulsa 3,407 4,443 36% (2,600) (0.6%) 3.8% $126,048 21% 0.1
Oregon
Bend 857 984 22% 600 0.8% 6.8% $231,213 36% 5.4
Eugene 739 974 35% (500) (0.3%) 6.6% $223,462 41% 6.6
Medford 479 536 25% (300) (0.4%) 7.7% $204,511 39% 5.2
Portland 5,125 9,365 47% 2,200 0.2% 6.1% $272,500 40% 7.5
Salem 855 1,275 38% 0 0.0% 6.1% $191,500 33% 6.0
Pennsylvania
Allentown 1,919 2,061 38% (900) (0.3%) 6.0% $244,582 39% 7.6
Altoona 71 225 45% (300) (0.5%) 5.5% $96,147 19% 1.3
Erie 355 527 52% (100) (0.1%) 5.8% $105,225 22% 2.0
Harrisburg 1,961 2,113 57% 1,000 0.3% 5.1% $152,429 24% 4.4
Johnstown 123 139 37% 200 0.3% 7.1% $84,448 20% 3.6
Lancaster 1,209 1,489 41% 1,200 0.5% 4.6% $170,638 27% 3.8
Philadelphia 4,545 6,669 37% (900) 0.0% 6.1% $228,437 34% 6.1
Pittsburgh 3,300 3,866 55% 3,800 0.3% 5.6% $120,864 23% 2.5
Reading 668 892 41% (1,800) (1.0%) 5.8% $151,224 25% 4.6
Scranton 994 1,115 51% 2,200 0.8% 6.6% $127,582 26% 4.9
State College 438 481 44% 300 0.4% 4.7% $160,359 32% 4.2
Williamsport 115 124 23% (200) (0.4%) 6.0% $114,800 24% 3.0
York 1,270 1,395 44% 200 0.1% 5.3% $166,469 26% 4.1
Rhode Island
Providence 1,553 1,944 17% (13,000) (2.2%) 8.5% $261,542 41% 4.4
South Carolina
Anderson 736 799 41% (500) (0.8%) 8.0% $105,007 20% 0.0
Charleston 4,121 5,319 49% (900) (0.3%) 6.5% $214,000 35% 5.0
Columbia 3,860 4,992 62% (700) (0.2%) 6.9% $144,250 24% 4.8
Florence 623 987 75% 100 0.1% 8.6% $99,473 20% 0.0
Greenville 2,922 4,099 73% 5,900 1.9% 6.8% $145,000 27% 5.4
Myrtle Beach 2,382 3,856 33% 1,300 1.0% 6.6% $183,366 34% 3.0
Spartanburg 1,203 1,203 44% 3,200 2.6% 8.1% $127,435 24% 4.3
South Dakota
Rapid City 562 577 42% 1,100 1.7% 2.8% $124,188 22% 2.7
Sioux Falls 1,112 1,909 76% 2,700 2.0% 2.6% $137,874 21% 0.0
Tennessee
Chattanooga 1,473 2,036 53% (800) (0.3%) 5.9% $128,091 26% 2.0
Clarksville 1,088 1,552 48% (1,100) (1.3%) 6.9% $100,697 20% 0.4
Jackson 330 334 30% 300 0.5% 6.8% $89,969 21% 0.2
Johnson City 705 1,133 79% 300 0.4% 6.1% $114,741 28% 1.1
Kingsport 842 1,034 67% 300 0.2% 6.0% $111,411 27% 2.7
Knoxville 2,624 3,320 51% (600) (0.2%) 5.4% $149,746 29% 2.9
Memphis 3,094 4,519 41% (7,200) (1.1%) 7.1% $112,183 22% 0.0
Nashville 6,780 8,917 49% 200 0.0% 5.7% $152,500 26% 4.2
Texas
Abilene 233 245 12% 900 1.4% 4.2% $110,000 23% 5.1
Amarillo 472 549 15% 700 0.6% 3.8% $129,500 25% 5.1
Austin 9,210 15,683 59% 18,100 2.4% 4.5% $194,000 29% 5.0
Beaumont 826 1,435 48% 2,500 1.5% 6.7% $138,600 27% 5.9
Brownsville 1,274 1,532 39% 1,900 1.5% 7.4% $102,500 29% 4.9
College Station 787 1,950 55% 3,400 3.9% 4.4% $150,700 33% 4.6
Corpus Christi 1,378 1,733 28% 2,300 1.3% 5.2% $135,800 29% 5.4
Dallas 14,025 31,063 42% 44,600 2.1% 5.2% $162,100 24% 3.0
El Paso 3,023 3,922 61% 8,700 3.2% 6.4% $133,300 33% 5.2
Fort Worth 8,146 12,135 32% 15,200 1.7% 5.0% $117,700 18% 3.7
Houston 32,692 50,324 67% 53,400 2.1% 5.0% $158,900 25% 5.1
Killeen 2,131 2,904 64% 2,500 2.1% 5.2% $126,979 24% 5.0
Laredo 824 1,053 44% 2,300 2.7% 5.9% $91,957 23% 0.4
Longview 253 322 20% 2,300 2.4% 4.4% $123,800 26% 5.0
Lubbock 953 1,602 38% (1,500) (1.2%) 4.1% $116,800 25% 5.0
McAllen 3,590 4,560 49% 8,600 4.1% 7.8% $106,500 30% 2.5
Midland 536 536 14% 1,600 2.4% 3.1% $123,526 22% 5.0
Odessa 273 631 30% 2,100 3.5% 3.7% $160,400 32% 5.9
San Antonio 6,588 11,267 51% 17,000 2.0% 5.0% $152,000 28% 5.1
Texarkana 121 224 27% 1,500 2.7% 4.8% $79,211 16% 0.0
Tyler 259 341 12% 1,600 1.7% 5.0% $135,000 26% 4.2
Waco 680 898 30% 1,800 1.6% 4.8% $109,400 24% 1.7
Wichita Falls 162 353 39% 1,500 2.4% 4.9% $108,300 24% 5.5
Utah
Ogden-Clearfield 1,774 2,195 43% (100) 0.0% 4.0% $166,573 25% 3.6
Provo-Orem 1,436 1,955 30% (2,200) (1.2%) 3.6% $190,265 32% 4.1
Salt Lake City 2,220 3,795 31% 3,500 0.5% 3.8% $225,654 35% 5.7
St. George 860 905 24% (700) (1.3%) 5.2% $196,349 37% 3.8
Virginia
Charlottesville 877 976 37% (100) (0.1%) 4.1% $226,421 35% 4.3
Harrisonburg 755 1,334 100% 1,700 2.7% 4.3% $184,023 36% 5.1
Lynchburg 1,215 1,418 77% 2,500 2.3% 5.0% $141,406 29% 3.9
Richmond 4,489 5,393 47% 3,200 0.5% 5.0% $230,500 37% 5.8
Roanoke 818 893 46% 1,000 0.6% 4.5% $146,524 28% 4.1
Virginia Beach 3,775 5,572 24% 16,800 2.2% 4.8% $233,628 38% 6.6
Winchester 571 583 33% 1,600 2.8% 4.6% $175,190 30% 1.8
Washington
Bellingham 506 709 28% 1,300 1.5% 5.6% $249,802 43% 5.4
Bremerton 811 1,003 39% 100 0.1% 5.7% $280,000 38% 6.3
Kennewick 1,010 1,074 33% 2,500 2.7% 5.6% $162,578 25% 4.3
Olympia 1,284 1,603 50% 2,300 2.3% 5.7% $242,669 34% 6.6
Seattle 5,876 15,850 57% 38,500 2.6% 4.6% $387,250 47% 6.9
Spokane 1,385 1,716 39% 500 0.2% 6.2% $179,000 32% 6.0
Tacoma 2,134 3,058 45% 5,300 1.9% 6.4% $250,500 35% 5.8
Yakima 789 907 74% 1,200 1.5% 8.0% $163,132 31% 4.9
West Virginia
Charleston 348 562 67% (400) (0.3%) 3.4% $126,229 23% 0.5
Huntington 169 223 35% 1,600 1.3% 5.1% $87,911 19% 0.1
Morgantown 29 284 100% 1,400 2.3% 2.8% $126,237 25% 0.1
Parkersburg 176 229 52% (900) (1.2%) 5.1% $88,434 17% 0.0
Wheeling 43 45 15% 1,400 2.1% 5.2% $82,743 17% 0.3
Wisconsin
Appleton 544 632 29% (600) (0.5%) 4.3% $123,176 20% 3.8
Eau Claire 371 534 38% (400) (0.5%) 4.1% $118,579 22% 4.7
Green Bay 945 1,209 39% (1,000) (0.6%) 4.7% $143,841 25% 4.5
Janesville 294 336 26% (1,900) (2.7%) 6.7% $122,532 22% 5.3
La Crosse 344 462 55% (1,100) (1.5%) 4.2% $121,140 23% 3.9
Madison 1,038 2,325 38% 1,300 0.4% 3.6% $227,057 35% 5.9
Milwaukee 1,541 3,149 37% (7,700) (0.9%) 5.3% $211,519 36% 6.3
Oshkosh-Neenah 444 589 40% 400 0.4% 4.4% $119,000 21% 3.7
Racine 330 352 28% (1,000) (1.2%) 5.9% $150,984 25% 5.5
Sheboygan 138 220 30% (1,000) (1.5%) 4.4% $133,050 25% 5.4
Wausau 270 511 37% (1,300) (1.8%) 4.5% $123,596 21% 4.9
Wyoming
Cheyenne 208 218 25% 900 2.0% 4.2% $133,421 22% 0.0
Total Permits includes both single-family and multifamily residential permits.
Total Permits/Peak Permits is the current 12-month total permit activity divided by the perak 12-month period since 1982.
The Housing Costs/Income ratio assumes a 20% down payment paid over 7 years, and the remaining 80% amortized over 30 years at the current fixed rate.
For more information on our Housing Cycle Barometer™, click here

 


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