Home Price Data is Very Misleading | John Burns Real Estate Consulting

Home Price Data is Very Misleading


There are great home price tools today to help you with the decision you are making. However, Case Shiller (CS) and median prices are not the right ones.

Executive decision makers want to know whether prices are trending up or down, and that question has never been harder to answer. When forced to answer the question, we say that most home prices are reverting to 2003 prices – some areas have overcorrected and some have not fully corrected. While that covers our butt nationally, we know the truth is much different depending on what submarket or pool of homes you are talking about. This email will be longer than usual because I want to show you a few things:

The “Best” Free Data Stinks

If you read the newspapers, you would think prices are appreciating, whether it is the Case Shiller price index or median resale prices – the two price measures that used to be the most reliable measures. Just look at recent price trends for Southern California.

According to CS, prices are up 6% in LA (includes Orange Co.) and 11% in San Diego since March of 2009. According to the median price, prices are up 12% in LA, 17% in Orange County, 12% in Riverside and 18% in San Diego since April of 2009. Neither is correct if you are talking about most homes in those markets.

Case Shiller is Particularly Wild

While we love the CS methodology, both CS and the median price are wildly impacted when the mix of what is transacting shifts dramatically from the norm. We set five price measures equal to 100 in the year 2000, and look at what happened in 2005 / 2006. CS showed 20% price appreciation over those 2 years, while the median price and most other measures showed only 6%. The truth was somewhere in between, but closer to the median than to CS.

Why? Because the mix of what was transacting shifted to the lower priced homes in the worst neighborhoods. That mix shift pulled the median price down, but those low-priced homes were appreciating rapidly, so CS (an index that compares price appreciation on the same house from when it last sold) went up. In response to this problem, CS developed sub-indexes showing trends by price tier, but most people I know don’t look at them and most don’t even know they exist.

If you have been relying on either of these measures for pricing, you have made some big mistakes. Just ask the rating agencies.

Why 2003?

Home prices have appreciated about 18% since 2000, which was the end of the last economic expansion. Assuming we are at the end of the next expansion, the price appreciation should be about in line with income growth and mortgage payment growth during that time. Incomes have grown approximately 16% since 2000. Since mortgage rates have fallen from 8.06% to 4.78% during that time, the mortgage payment has fallen 13%. Putting these two together, we believe 2003 prices are a reasonable estimate for most home values today. Obviously, this is a very back-of-the-envelope analysis and our work with clients is more targeted toward the decisions they are trying to make.

Any further price correction from here will likely either be due to rising mortgage rates, or an overcorrection (possible driven by Shadow Inventory), or because consumers took on so much other debt over the last 10 years that a 31% debt-to-income ratio is too high going forward (note that Borrowers who have received “permanent mods” have 30%+ of their income going to additional debt service on top of their primary mortgage!).

Go Invest Millions, But Spend the Time and Money to Know What You are Doing

Billions of dollars of decisions are made every day by people who don’t spend the money to know what is going on, and home prices are clearly just one example of this. Most of these decision makers are investing other people’s money, and are constrained by a budget process that says “You have no budget to know what is going on, but you have the authority to make huge investment decisions.” Here are some recent personal examples:

  • Government: I met with a government agency involved in hundreds of billions of dollars of mortgages that didn’t have the budget to buy the same price data that firms who are investing in mortgage-backed securities buy
  • Investment Banks: I had a phone call with a household name that was investing other people’s money and wagering on what the next CS news would be, but was devoting no more than a few hours of time to the research
  • Bank: I met with a bank who was setting strategy to determine the right time to sell REO using CS data because it was free
  • Home Builder: A home builder asked if I thought CS futures were the right metric to use for the assumptions in their impairment analysis

The Right Way

Automated Valuation Model (AVM) programs appraise every house every month. These models started off as being pretty inaccurate, but that is changing. We have found that AVM programs have been more accurately reporting home prices by MSA. The most famous of these can be pretty inaccurate per house, but the MSA measure is very good due to the tremendous sample size. One of the AVM’s shows that prices bottomed in LA (includes Orange County) and San Diego in April 2009 and are up slightly since then. However, in Riverside, prices are still falling. Our Consulting team doing work in all of these markets have similar conclusions. Other markets across the U.S. also seem to be correct. There is a big variance by neighborhood and price range too, which is correct. Unfortunately for most of you, the most reliable AVM models start at $100K/year!

Even Surveys Are Working Better Today

It might surprise you to know that there are some price measures that are in direct contradiction of CS and median prices, and we believe they are more accurate.

  • Realtor Survey of Existing Home Prices. We have been scrubbing the data by MSA on a national realtor survey of several thousand realtors for years. We were highly suspect when we started this, but we have generally found that the survey is quite accurate. According to the survey, prices only recently started appreciating in Orange County, and they are still trending down very slightly in the rest of Southern California. Other markets around the country seem to coincide with our in the field research as well.
  • Our Survey of New Home Prices. We get 250+/- industry executives who manage 2000+/- new home communities to reply to our monthly survey and comment on new home price trends, net of incentives. These are all clients and friends who tell us the truth, and they have been reporting that prices have generally been flat or very slightly down since September. Our Consulting team has found the same. June should be an interesting survey.

In addition to the above, there are tools to get to the right answer at a much more granular level (zip code and even neighborhood). These tools are new.

Conclusion

To understand home prices (and all else housing-related for that matter), you need to look at everything. If you are making a decision based on headline data or a regression to the mean, you are taking a lot of risk.

Most execs don’t have the time or budget to look at everything, so that is how we created a business out of this. The next time someone in your organization uses headline price data to make a point or to support an investment thesis, be sure to challenge that data to make sure it is an accurate representation of what is going on in the investment you are considering. Don’t make bad decisions because of misleading information!

This is the most current available data for all variables and markets.

Permits Statistics
Employment Statistics
Affordability
12-
12-
Total
NF Payroll Employment
State
Metro Area*
Month
S. Fam. Permits
Month
Total Permits
Permits / Peak Permits
1-Yr Growth
1-Yr Growth Rate
Unemp Rate
Median Home Price
Housing Costs / Income
JBREC Affordability Index
Alabama
Anniston-Oxford 90 98 21% (500) (1.0%) 10.4% $87,693 19% 0.7
Auburn-Opelika 772 1,405 64% 400 0.8% 8.7% $127,299 26% 0.0
Birmingham 1,865 1,983 25% (16,700) (3.3%) 9.8% $147,201 24% 0.8
Decatur 68 68 7% (1,100) (2.0%) 10.9% $93,528 18% 0.1
Dothan 213 311 42% (1,300) (2.2%) 9.4% $88,666 18% 0.0
Florence 146 213 27% (200) (0.4%) 10.4% $93,525 20% 0.3
Gadsden 63 63 16% (500) (1.4%) 10.2% $83,706 20% 0.5
Huntsville 2,215 2,550 51% (500) (0.2%) 7.9% $119,312 18% 0.0
Mobile 1,128 1,786 64% (5,300) (3.0%) 11.4% $126,040 26% 2.0
Montgomery 436 743 29% (3,600) (2.1%) 9.8% $129,231 23% 0.3
Tuscaloosa 375 848 32% (1,400) (1.5%) 8.9% $117,938 24% 0.1
Alaska
Anchorage 347 587 7% 600 0.4% 7.7% $173,832 20% 0.0
Fairbanks 41 41 5% 500 1.3% 7.4% $136,912 18% 0.0
Arizona
Flagstaff 117 479 35% (1,000) (1.6%) 8.3% $249,500 44% 5.2
Phoenix 9,984 10,489 15% (29,700) (1.7%) 8.4% $135,000 21% 1.5
Prescott 286 474 11% (800) (1.4%) 9.5% $132,051 26% 0.0
Tucson 2,287 2,373 19% (3,900) (1.1%) 8.2% $165,000 30% 2.3
Yuma 576 636 24% (2,100) (4.1%) 24.4% $147,450 31% 5.1
Arkansas
Fayetteville 1,166 1,633 22% (2,500) (1.2%) 6.0% $101,932 17% 0.0
Fort Smith 538 787 60% (3,700) (3.1%) 7.6% $76,586 15% 0.0
Hot Springs 42 42 11% (1,500) (3.9%) 7.7% $109,000 22% 0.0
Jonesboro 444 628 64% (500) (1.0%) 7.1% $73,813 14% 0.0
Little Rock 1,801 2,639 46% (7,800) (2.3%) 6.6% $133,960 22% 2.4
Pine Bluff 42 64 16% (1,100) (2.9%) 9.2% $65,572 13% 0.0
California
Bakersfield 1,614 1,858 21% (4,700) (2.0%) 16.5% $125,000 22% 1.3
Chico 261 385 19% (1,600) (2.2%) 13.9% $182,000 35% 2.5
El Centro 116 116 5% (1,500) (3.3%) 27.9% $110,000 24% 1.0
Fresno 1,650 1,870 25% (8,100) (2.8%) 16.9% $147,500 26% 1.8
Hanford 112 112 8% 0 0.0% 16.8% $112,250 19% 1.0
Los Angeles (D) 2,272 5,691 8% (82,800) (2.1%) 11.9% $330,000 47% 2.8
Madera 64 68 3% 200 0.6% 16.3% $135,000 24% 1.5
Merced 95 105 3% (1,600) (2.9%) 19.9% $116,000 21% 0.9
Modesto 219 219 4% (2,600) (1.8%) 18.3% $138,000 21% 0.5
Monterey 120 231 8% (1,500) (1.2%) 12.7% $245,250 34% 1.4
Napa 79 83 8% (1,700) (2.8%) 10.0% $339,000 41% 2.6
Oakland (D) 2,146 2,970 13% (33,900) (3.5%) 11.4% $325,000 35% 2.0
Orange County (D) 1,515 2,372 10% (28,400) (2.0%) 9.5% $505,000 53% 5.1
Redding 182 229 10% (1,000) (1.7%) 16.4% $160,000 30% 1.0
Riverside-San Bernardino 5,125 6,307 11% (40,000) (3.5%) 14.2% $175,000 24% 1.2
Sacramento 2,442 2,750 12% (26,100) (3.1%) 12.4% $206,500 27% 1.5
San Diego 2,105 3,123 7% (22,000) (1.8%) 10.4% $370,000 46% 3.7
San Francisco (D) 393 804 12% (32,400) (3.4%) 9.3% $720,000 73% 4.8
San Jose 864 1,395 14% (16,000) (1.9%) 11.7% $555,000 51% 4.5
San Luis Obispo 271 359 10% (4,000) (4.0%) 10.0% $382,750 54% 4.5
Santa Barbara 157 261 10% (3,700) (2.2%) 8.8% $352,500 48% 4.0
Santa Cruz 94 111 8% (2,100) (2.4%) 13.5% $553,000 67% 5.2
Santa Rosa 304 442 8% (5,800) (3.3%) 10.6% $330,000 42% 1.8
Stockton 856 856 12% (2,900) (1.5%) 17.7% $165,000 24% 0.9
Vallejo-Fairfield 663 663 11% (3,700) (3.1%) 12.2% $205,000 24% 0.9
Ventura 208 459 6% (7,000) (2.5%) 10.5% $410,000 43% 3.8
Visalia-Porterville 902 1,017 28% (1,600) (1.5%) 16.9% $131,500 24% 1.5
Yuba-Sutter 132 132 4% (1,200) (3.1%) 20.3% $156,000 26% 0.8
Colorado
Boulder 125 422 8% (2,600) (1.6%) 5.9% $299,500 35% 4.3
Colorado Springs 1,639 1,650 15% (6,400) (2.6%) 8.4% $176,000 24% 0.9
Denver 3,295 4,339 15% (30,100) (2.5%) 7.8% $221,000 29% 4.1
Fort Collins 437 859 23% (1,800) (1.4%) 6.4% $220,000 30% 3.2
Grand Junction 383 433 21% (3,100) (5.0%) 9.2% $134,787 20% 0.0
Greeley 921 960 22% (3,100) (3.9%) 9.0% $165,000 23% 1.5
Pueblo 217 427 30% (1,000) (1.7%) 8.9% $76,170 14% 0.0
Connecticut
Bridgeport 442 887 17% (1,600) (0.4%) 7.9% $382,154 37% 0.5
Hartford 842 1,196 11% (6,600) (1.2%) 8.6% $218,102 26% 0.0
New Haven 280 408 6% 300 0.1% 8.6% $230,923 30% 0.6
Norwich 256 399 14% (500) (0.4%) 8.3% $207,130 25% 0.1
Delaware
Dover 799 917 42% (700) (1.1%) 8.5% $196,538 36% 6.7
Wilmington (D) 1,077 1,340 21% (6,200) (1.8%) 8.9% $193,809 29% 4.1
District of Columbia
Washington D.C. (D) 7,849 10,909 29% 5,600 0.2% 6.0% $304,030 27% 1.7
Florida
Daytona Beach 771 841 11% (3,900) (2.5%) 11.9% $102,950 19% 0.3
Fort Lauderdale (D) 755 1,147 6% (16,300) (2.3%) 9.9% $155,000 25% 0.0
Fort Myers 1,114 1,199 4% (7,600) (3.7%) 12.7% $90,000 15% 0.4
Fort Walton Beach 199 199 5% 100 0.1% 7.6% $197,729 30% 5.0
Gainesville 418 548 17% 0 0.0% 7.5% $164,174 34% 2.3
Jacksonville 3,885 4,148 17% (8,300) (1.4%) 11.0% $148,250 23% 3.6
Lakeland 1,261 1,343 10% (6,200) (3.1%) 12.1% $99,900 19% 0.6
Melbourne 1,100 1,124 11% (4,100) (2.1%) 11.4% $110,000 18% 0.1
Miami (D) 767 1,696 7% (13,200) (1.3%) 11.3% $170,000 33% 1.7
Naples 714 1,234 15% (4,100) (3.6%) 11.4% $219,000 31% 2.4
Ocala 479 487 7% (3,500) (3.7%) 13.9% $100,000 21% 1.7
Orlando 4,431 4,943 14% (23,600) (2.3%) 11.4% $132,500 22% 0.9
Panama City 227 319 6% 100 0.1% 9.4% $163,696 29% 4.4
Pensacola 1,274 1,694 26% (100) (0.1%) 10.2% $147,727 27% 4.6
Port St. Lucie 465 528 5% (2,800) (2.3%) 13.1% $118,000 20% 1.3
Punta Gorda 268 282 6% (1,700) (4.1%) 12.5% $114,000 20% 1.6
Sarasota 971 1,329 9% (5,700) (2.2%) 11.8% $154,750 27% 3.1
Tallahassee 659 786 18% (1,600) (0.9%) 7.9% $147,541 27% 0.2
Tampa 4,457 7,160 19% (23,600) (2.1%) 11.9% $124,000 23% 2.2
Vero Beach 275 327 8% (1,700) (3.8%) 13.1% $100,000 19% 0.0
West Palm Beach (D) 1,353 1,479 6% (12,800) (2.5%) 11.4% $215,000 34% 4.6
Georgia
Albany 174 212 17% (300) (0.5%) 10.5% $82,483 18% 0.0
Athens 228 255 11% 0 0.0% 7.4% $117,156 23% 0.0
Atlanta 6,315 7,763 11% (46,100) (2.0%) 9.8% $126,661 18% 1.0
Augusta 2,181 2,332 43% (1,400) (0.7%) 8.5% $104,053 20% 0.0
Brunswick 341 341 27% (1,000) (2.4%) 9.4% $130,787 24% 0.2
Columbus 671 1,001 45% (1,000) (0.8%) 9.4% $98,457 20% 0.1
Dalton 124 141 13% (500) (0.8%) 11.5% $95,853 19% 0.5
Gainesville 240 240 9% (1,900) (2.6%) 9.0% $126,574 21% 0.1
Hinesville 50 302 34% 600 3.2% 8.0% $101,781 21% 0.8
Macon 160 160 9% (1,900) (2.0%) 10.0% $91,628 19% 0.1
Rome 62 74 10% 400 1.0% 10.1% $91,289 19% 0.7
Savannah 1,019 1,380 28% (1,300) (0.9%) 8.3% $132,761 24% 2.2
Valdosta 455 781 53% (1,600) (2.9%) 8.2% $104,713 24% 0.9
Warner Robins 582 582 28% 200 0.3% 7.3% $91,809 14% 0.0
Hawaii
Honolulu 854 1,490 30% 400 0.1% 5.2% $574,084 67% 4.4
Idaho
Boise City 2,087 2,131 19% (5,700) (2.2%) 9.4% $144,154 22% 0.3
Coeur D’Alene 739 821 31% (100) (0.2%) 10.6% $136,452 23% 0.8
Idaho Falls 368 450 24% (600) (1.2%) 6.8% $91,731 14% 0.0
Lewiston 21 27 7% (400) (1.5%) 7.2% $119,098 22% 1.0
Pocatello 152 155 22% (800) (2.2%) 7.9% $88,686 15% 0.0
Illinois
Bloomington 286 387 23% (700) (0.8%) 7.9% $148,954 23% 0.3
Champaign-Urbana 191 265 12% (1,400) (1.2%) 8.8% $144,314 28% 4.8
Chicago (D) 2,954 4,705 11% (84,500) (2.3%) 10.7% $185,000 28% 1.3
Danville 2 2 1% (500) (1.7%) 12.7% $55,295 13% 1.0
Decatur 14 16 3% (2,400) (4.5%) 12.8% $89,381 18% 3.6
Kankakee-Bradley 54 54 7% 100 0.2% 13.6% $132,515 23% 5.9
Lake-Kenosha (D) 688 742 12% (13,200) (3.5%) 11.1% $212,933 26% 0.9
Peoria 303 348 18% (3,900) (2.2%) 10.9% $114,435 20% 4.7
Rockford 284 284 11% (3,100) (2.1%) 16.3% $110,896 21% 5.6
Springfield 154 245 16% (1,400) (1.3%) 8.4% $116,182 19% 1.9
Indiana
Anderson 52 62 8% 100 0.2% 11.0% $79,009 15% 0.4
Bloomington 223 267 22% 400 0.5% 7.2% $121,816 26% 1.1
Columbus 132 132 22% (1,000) (2.3%) 9.4% $115,909 19% 0.8
Elkhart-Goshen 156 204 12% 2,800 2.9% 14.1% $101,873 18% 0.3
Evansville 498 565 26% (1,100) (0.6%) 8.4% $88,963 17% 0.8
Fort Wayne 866 1,010 27% (2,400) (1.2%) 10.2% $94,905 17% 1.5
Gary (D) 1,023 1,219 26% (3,700) (1.4%) 10.2% $127,608 21% 3.7
Indianapolis 4,062 6,025 35% (13,000) (1.5%) 9.0% $115,590 18% 1.7
Kokomo 10 12 2% 1,000 2.5% 12.1% $79,043 14% 0.0
Lafayette 459 490 27% (3,100) (3.3%) 8.8% $106,202 21% 0.5
Michigan City 89 89 15% 0 0.0% 11.9% $107,287 20% 1.6
Muncie 28 28 5% (300) (0.6%) 10.8% $72,100 16% 0.1
South Bend 224 271 14% (2,100) (1.6%) 11.4% $89,496 17% 2.5
Terre Haute 108 114 17% (1,100) (1.5%) 10.6% $75,311 16% 0.7
Iowa
Ames 101 163 17% (600) (1.2%) 5.1% $125,103 21% 0.0
Cedar Rapids 628 1,112 54% (2,400) (1.7%) 7.0% $138,900 22% 3.5
Davenport 327 629 41% (3,600) (2.0%) 9.2% $109,874 20% 4.9
Des Moines 2,149 3,019 48% (4,100) (1.3%) 6.8% $146,613 21% 1.3
Dubuque 296 446 51% (400) (0.7%) 6.9% $112,688 20% 1.2
Iowa City 544 604 36% (500) (0.5%) 4.8% $147,550 23% 0.3
Sioux City 102 130 11% (1,300) (1.7%) 6.3% $85,069 15% 0.3
Waterloo 370 396 47% (1,000) (1.1%) 6.6% $114,270 21% 5.3
Kansas
Lawrence 212 212 11% 300 0.6% 5.4% $140,014 24% 0.8
Topeka 331 479 35% (1,200) (1.1%) 6.3% $105,341 16% 0.5
Wichita 1,251 1,479 32% (12,100) (4.1%) 7.9% $116,817 18% 1.5
Kentucky
Bowling Green 330 419 30% (600) (1.0%) 9.1% $102,475 22% 1.1
Elizabethtown 326 398 30% 600 1.3% 9.4% $102,388 20% 1.5
Lexington 1,423 1,653 32% (100) 0.0% 8.1% $142,388 26% 3.4
Louisville 2,381 2,672 30% (5,400) (0.9%) 9.9% $132,044 26% 5.0
Owensboro 267 271 25% 0 0.0% 8.9% $78,991 17% 1.0
Louisiana
Alexandria 337 339 36% (600) (0.9%) 5.8% $88,826 21% 0.9
Baton Rouge 2,889 3,049 34% (5,900) (1.6%) 6.0% $162,997 31% 5.1
Houma 440 452 38% (1,700) (1.8%) 4.6% $109,927 22% 2.1
Lafayette 732 795 16% (1,900) (1.3%) 5.0% $123,821 25% 1.0
Lake Charles 649 1,044 70% (2,500) (2.7%) 6.0% $102,091 21% 1.4
Monroe 208 222 18% (1,600) (2.1%) 6.6% $89,990 21% 0.6
New Orleans 2,107 2,478 19% (400) (0.1%) 6.1% $162,649 32% 5.1
Shreveport 1,183 1,434 47% (2,100) (1.2%) 5.8% $153,411 35% 5.6
Maine
Bangor 154 243 24% (1,600) (2.5%) 7.8% $109,475 22% 0.0
Lewiston-Auburn 122 138 16% (600) (1.3%) 8.4% $113,041 21% 0.0
Portland 1,014 1,048 18% (3,900) (2.1%) 6.8% $200,956 30% 1.9
Maryland
Baltimore 3,515 5,496 28% (10,200) (0.8%) 7.2% $240,000 33% 5.6
Bethesda (D) 1,733 2,037 17% 200 0.0% 5.3% $339,150 34% 4.9
Cumberland 50 100 25% (1,000) (2.5%) 8.4% $111,926 26% 4.9
Hagerstown 735 741 18% (2,100) (2.2%) 9.4% $153,613 26% 1.0
Salisbury 108 160 12% (1,800) (3.3%) 8.4% $132,822 26% 1.0
Massachusetts
Barnstable Town 273 298 6% (800) (0.9%) 10.0% $318,354 41% 1.4
Boston (D) 1,130 2,226 21% (17,300) (1.0%) 7.9% $329,064 37% 1.6
Cambridge (D) 1,229 1,705 23% (26,500) (1.1%) 8.3% $359,134 35% 0.5
Pittsfield 8 8 1% (500) (1.4%) 9.3% $168,032 27% 0.1
Springfield 307 353 7% (10,100) (3.5%) 9.8% $173,425 25% 0.0
Worcester 649 905 12% (5,400) (2.3%) 9.6% $220,238 25% 1.0
Michigan
Ann Arbor 202 248 9% (1,500) (0.8%) 8.6% $148,988 21% 0.0
Battle Creek 10 10 2% (300) (0.5%) 11.8% $76,714 15% 0.3
Bay City 28 28 6% (700) (1.9%) 12.8% $73,087 14% 0.1
Detroit (D) 293 381 6% (27,900) (3.9%) 15.7% $80,829 16% 0.0
Flint 53 124 4% (2,200) (1.6%) 14.9% $69,084 13% 0.0
Grand Rapids 953 982 20% (6,800) (1.9%) 11.3% $93,176 16% 1.3
Holland 306 342 12% (2,700) (2.6%) 12.2% $126,658 19% 0.3
Jackson 25 25 3% (1,900) (3.4%) 13.6% $87,432 17% 0.8
Kalamazoo 308 312 13% (3,900) (2.8%) 11.4% $106,463 20% 0.2
Lansing 275 327 10% 1,500 0.7% 10.5% $82,405 14% 0.7
Monroe 68 68 6% (2,200) (5.6%) 13.4% $107,722 16% 0.0
Muskegon 38 52 5% (2,200) (3.7%) 14.9% $80,306 16% 0.3
Niles 30 46 6% (1,700) (2.8%) 13.4% $107,698 21% 1.3
Saginaw 81 89 9% 1,000 1.2% 12.7% $55,974 11% 1.7
Warren (D) 1,269 1,372 7% (39,100) (3.7%) 14.2% $136,465 19% 0.0
Minnesota
Duluth 363 432 25% (700) (0.5%) 7.7% $104,234 21% 5.7
Minneapolis 4,227 5,475 20% (29,200) (1.7%) 6.8% $164,121 23% 1.6
Rochester 404 516 26% (200) (0.2%) 5.7% $124,143 18% 0.8
St. Cloud 225 329 16% 500 0.5% 6.9% $120,420 21% 2.6
Mississippi
Gulfport-Biloxi 1,545 2,026 37% (1,600) (1.5%) 9.0% $130,607 29% 5.0
Hattiesburg 29 39 3% 600 1.0% 8.5% $90,175 21% 0.3
Jackson 1,252 1,252 28% (700) (0.3%) 8.5% $134,255 27% 4.4
Pascagoula 546 550 36% (2,100) (3.6%) 9.9% $100,082 19% 0.0
Missouri
Columbia 520 570 24% 300 0.3% 5.4% $148,968 29% 2.8
Jefferson City 148 219 19% 0 0.0% 6.3% $104,758 19% 1.3
Joplin 62 72 10% (1,300) (1.6%) 7.7% $81,942 19% 1.3
Kansas City 2,090 3,739 20% (18,400) (1.9%) 8.3% $143,655 22% 2.1
Springfield 677 1,123 22% 700 0.4% 7.9% $112,490 23% 1.4
St. Joseph 68 92 22% 2,200 3.8% 7.7% $83,407 17% 0.4
St. Louis 4,643 5,857 32% (11,600) (0.9%) 9.5% $180,421 30% 5.8
Montana
Billings 489 593 41% (2,100) (2.6%) 5.2% $110,307 18% 0.0
Great Falls 65 109 34% (700) (2.0%) 5.8% $92,611 17% 0.0
Missoula 220 268 24% 1,100 2.0% 6.8% $154,547 29% 0.7
Nebraska
Lincoln 565 683 25% (2,100) (1.2%) 4.5% $131,693 19% 0.0
Omaha 3,320 3,574 54% (6,100) (1.3%) 5.5% $131,482 18% 0.0
Nevada
Carson City 12 28 4% (900) (3.0%) 13.4% $137,831 21% 0.0
Las Vegas 4,990 6,540 17% (38,700) (4.6%) 14.2% $140,000 19% 0.2
Reno 543 861 14% (5,700) (2.9%) 13.5% $175,000 24% 0.2
New Hampshire
Manchester 325 615 9% (1,300) (1.3%) 6.4% $225,660 23% 0.1
New Jersey
Atlantic City 531 622 16% (1,600) (1.2%) 12.6% $226,759 32% 4.7
Camden (D) 1,448 2,294 27% (9,100) (1.8%) 9.9% $194,958 22% 0.6
Edison (D) 2,911 3,849 16% (28,300) (2.9%) 9.0% $314,066 30% 3.0
Newark-Union (D) 1,411 2,229 24% (22,700) (2.3%) 9.5% $349,127 36% 1.7
Ocean City 272 465 19% 2,900 7.9% 12.6% $227,237 33% 2.5
Trenton 184 416 11% (2,500) (1.1%) 7.8% $257,660 27% 2.5
Vineland 248 290 39% (100) (0.2%) 13.1% $131,459 20% 0.1
New Mexico
Albuquerque 1,628 1,767 20% (6,200) (1.6%) 8.3% $196,626 34% 4.5
Farmington 219 233 40% (2,700) (5.3%) 9.6% $183,415 35% 5.1
Las Cruces 928 994 40% (200) (0.3%) 8.0% $96,336 22% 0.0
Santa Fe 115 115 9% (600) (1.0%) 6.7% $195,833 30% 0.0
New York
Albany 742 869 16% (4,800) (1.1%) 6.5% $187,207 28% 3.2
Binghamton 21 21 2% (1,500) (1.3%) 7.9% $121,218 23% 4.4
Buffalo 796 989 21% (1,200) (0.2%) 7.8% $111,651 21% 2.2
Elmira 15 15 5% 500 1.3% 7.9% $89,450 18% 2.6
Glens Falls 229 239 15% 800 1.5% 7.9% $154,777 28% 3.6
Ithaca 44 73 11% 600 0.9% 5.1% $146,736 26% 1.7
Kingston 95 137 10% (100) (0.2%) 7.2% $217,362 33% 3.5
Nassau (D) 1,264 1,385 12% 8,100 0.7% 6.6% $397,469 38% 5.6
New York (D) 1,425 8,085 20% (48,300) (0.9%) 9.2% $443,659 64% 4.9
Poughkeepsie 387 969 19% (3,300) (1.3%) 7.4% $205,503 25% 0.4
Rochester 849 1,252 24% (1,400) (0.3%) 7.5% $114,695 19% 1.8
Syracuse 453 551 16% (1,900) (0.6%) 7.7% $117,593 21% 3.3
Utica-Rome 15 15 1% 300 0.2% 7.2% $103,554 21% 1.8
North Carolina
Asheville 1,064 1,217 28% (2,600) (1.6%) 8.5% $163,784 33% 4.1
Burlington 492 735 36% (1,200) (2.1%) 11.0% $105,814 21% 0.1
Charlotte 5,242 7,353 29% (7,000) (0.9%) 11.1% $158,000 24% 2.7
Durham 1,495 2,222 34% 200 0.1% 7.2% $195,000 33% 4.3
Fayetteville 1,674 2,896 67% (100) (0.1%) 8.6% $100,819 19% 0.0
Goldsboro 202 202 29% (1,700) (3.8%) 8.6% $99,555 21% 0.7
Greensboro 1,514 2,247 35% (6,900) (2.0%) 10.7% $128,807 25% 0.1
Greenville 411 635 25% 500 0.7% 9.6% $99,242 22% 0.0
Hickory 541 597 25% (3,300) (2.3%) 13.3% $102,182 22% 0.5
Jacksonville 1,761 2,191 100% 1,900 4.0% 7.5% $121,708 24% 0.0
Raleigh-Cary 5,105 5,704 32% (4,000) (0.8%) 8.3% $188,000 27% 2.7
Rocky Mount 216 216 21% (500) (0.8%) 13.0% $85,911 19% 0.2
Wilmington 1,734 1,876 20% (3,500) (2.5%) 9.7% $180,500 34% 1.9
Winston-Salem 860 1,172 26% (1,900) (0.9%) 9.4% $115,225 22% 0.3
North Dakota
Bismarck 537 618 56% 1,100 1.8% 3.6% $155,642 20% 2.2
Fargo 893 1,605 57% 500 0.4% 3.9% $142,134 22% 0.8
Grand Forks 111 270 40% 500 1.0% 4.3% $118,193 19% 0.0
Ohio
Akron 418 462 12% (9,900) (3.1%) 10.9% $120,000 20% 3.2
Canton 284 343 22% (4,900) (3.0%) 12.5% $88,607 17% 1.8
Cincinnati 3,461 3,862 25% (14,700) (1.5%) 10.2% $132,607 19% 1.2
Cleveland 2,067 2,334 29% (14,300) (1.4%) 8.9% $110,196 19% 2.0
Columbus 2,847 4,943 29% (14,000) (1.5%) 9.4% $137,000 20% 2.2
Dayton 761 871 21% (5,700) (1.5%) 11.7% $114,092 20% 3.0
Lima 11 11 2% (200) (0.4%) 11.5% $86,978 17% 0.6
Mansfield 44 46 8% 900 1.7% 12.4% $83,530 17% 1.0
Sandusky 0 0 0% 300 0.9% 11.3% $106,746 18% 0.0
Springfield 53 53 8% (400) (0.8%) 11.0% $88,216 17% 0.4
Toledo 431 534 13% (5,100) (1.7%) 12.1% $90,256 16% 1.8
Youngstown 170 180 10% (700) (0.3%) 12.3% $73,383 15% 2.2
Oklahoma
Lawton 226 543 50% 1,200 2.8% 5.5% $86,742 15% 0.5
Oklahoma City 3,337 4,060 19% (5,600) (1.0%) 5.9% $139,571 22% 4.0
Tulsa 2,867 3,489 29% (8,800) (2.1%) 7.0% $130,450 20% 0.5
Oregon
Bend 393 397 9% (2,000) (3.3%) 14.3% $138,260 20% 0.0
Corvallis 39 57 7% (1,300) (3.4%) 7.5% $177,646 26% 0.1
Eugene 523 690 25% (1,400) (1.0%) 10.9% $197,943 35% 5.3
Medford 333 412 19% (900) (1.2%) 12.8% $136,975 25% 0.0
Portland 3,560 4,263 22% (23,200) (2.4%) 10.5% $236,250 33% 5.4
Salem 472 690 21% (1,400) (1.0%) 10.8% $174,548 29% 5.2
Pennsylvania
Allentown 1,498 1,676 31% (1,900) (0.6%) 9.5% $215,200 27% 3.4
Altoona 9 17 3% 800 1.3% 7.7% $91,093 16% 0.0
Erie 259 446 44% (1,300) (1.0%) 9.7% $96,772 17% 0.7
Harrisburg 855 921 25% (6,300) (1.9%) 7.8% $141,373 19% 0.2
Johnstown 12 12 3% (1,000) (1.6%) 9.3% $77,812 17% 1.3
Lancaster 776 913 25% (2,600) (1.1%) 7.6% $160,962 22% 1.5
Lebanon 318 318 38% (500) (1.0%) 7.4% $130,746 20% 0.7
Philadelphia (D) 2,951 3,919 22% (27,600) (1.5%) 8.8% $213,522 25% 2.4
Pittsburgh 2,827 3,164 45% (5,700) (0.5%) 8.1% $120,210 18% 0.6
Reading 224 240 11% (1,800) (1.1%) 9.5% $151,365 21% 3.7
Scranton 132 135 6% (2,700) (1.1%) 9.8% $115,309 19% 0.0
State College 184 213 19% 1,000 1.3% 6.1% $153,057 25% 0.6
Williamsport 10 10 2% (400) (0.8%) 9.1% $105,067 18% 0.3
York 543 628 20% (2,400) (1.4%) 8.9% $145,994 20% 0.7
Rhode Island
Providence 1,186 1,379 12% (16,500) (3.0%) 12.5% $226,791 33% 1.6
South Carolina
Anderson 241 241 13% (1,600) (2.7%) 10.7% $92,395 19% 0.0
Charleston 3,257 3,498 32% 500 0.2% 8.5% $190,000 32% 3.2
Columbia 2,917 3,560 44% (1,200) (0.3%) 8.3% $124,000 22% 2.1
Florence 353 407 31% 0 0.0% 10.8% $118,238 26% 2.7
Greenville 1,501 1,672 30% (3,200) (1.1%) 9.2% $135,950 26% 5.2
Myrtle Beach 1,628 1,851 16% 600 0.5% 10.9% $151,587 31% 0.9
Spartanburg 604 632 23% (1,700) (1.4%) 10.8% $122,946 24% 4.4
Sumter 396 492 54% (1,900) (5.2%) 11.6% $95,808 21% 0.2
South Dakota
Rapid City 448 664 48% 100 0.2% 4.8% $117,923 19% 0.4
Sioux Falls 929 1,423 57% (100) (0.1%) 4.5% $136,445 18% 2.6
Tennessee
Chattanooga 949 1,008 26% 700 0.3% 9.0% $122,982 25% 1.5
Clarksville 1,298 1,473 46% 300 0.4% 10.0% $97,402 20% 0.8
Cleveland 181 480 51% (500) (1.3%) 9.7% $101,666 24% 0.6
Jackson 256 256 23% (1,100) (1.9%) 10.7% $83,419 19% 0.3
Johnson City 481 539 37% (1,300) (1.7%) 9.5% $108,977 27% 1.6
Kingsport 387 413 27% (3,100) (2.6%) 9.2% $105,660 25% 1.5
Knoxville 1,268 1,771 27% (1,300) (0.4%) 8.5% $137,773 29% 2.9
Memphis 1,853 2,557 23% (18,300) (3.0%) 10.4% $126,622 26% 3.0
Morristown 193 199 26% (1,700) (3.7%) 12.5% $96,644 23% 0.0
Nashville 4,406 5,694 31% (10,200) (1.4%) 9.2% $139,000 24% 2.8
Texas
Abilene 203 319 15% (800) (1.2%) 6.3% $104,600 22% 4.7
Amarillo 610 640 17% (1,200) (1.1%) 5.6% $122,800 23% 4.2
Austin 6,958 8,487 32% 800 0.1% 7.0% $185,700 27% 4.2
Beaumont 1,167 1,167 44% (3,400) (2.1%) 10.6% $123,200 24% 4.3
Brownsville 978 1,028 26% 300 0.2% 10.8% $96,700 27% 3.8
College Station 890 976 28% 2,200 2.3% 5.9% $151,000 32% 4.1
Corpus Christi 891 958 16% (700) (0.4%) 7.9% $138,000 28% 5.2
Dallas (D) 10,180 12,656 17% (8,200) (0.4%) 8.2% $161,900 24% 3.4
El Paso 2,816 3,525 55% (600) (0.2%) 9.4% $132,200 32% 5.1
Fort Worth (D) 5,797 6,739 18% (7,100) (0.8%) 8.2% $134,650 21% 2.5
Houston 24,998 29,335 39% (40,900) (1.6%) 8.4% $153,000 23% 3.8
Killeen 1,844 1,966 43% 1,800 1.4% 7.3% $121,425 22% 3.2
Laredo 668 768 32% (400) (0.5%) 8.8% $86,575 21% 0.9
Longview 128 159 10% (1,100) (1.2%) 7.5% $120,000 24% 3.9
Lubbock 773 1,053 25% (400) (0.3%) 5.9% $114,800 23% 1.8
McAllen 2,821 3,206 34% 3,000 1.4% 11.1% $104,700 28% 2.0
Midland 381 381 10% (2,300) (3.4%) 5.6% $122,334 20% 3.2
Odessa 271 383 18% (2,300) (3.8%) 8.4% $138,000 27% 4.9
San Angelo 202 322 21% (200) (0.5%) 6.5% $118,500 24% 5.3
San Antonio 6,069 6,905 31% (9,900) (1.2%) 7.3% $141,600 25% 4.2
Sherman 6 6 1% (800) (1.9%) 8.4% $93,200 17% 3.5
Texarkana 81 147 17% (500) (0.9%) 7.4% $76,196 15% 0.1
Tyler 132 181 6% 300 0.3% 7.6% $133,200 25% 3.6
Victoria 50 50 3% (1,100) (2.2%) 7.7% $116,900 21% 2.6
Waco 367 587 20% 1,100 1.0% 7.0% $110,300 23% 2.3
Wichita Falls 151 193 22% (1,700) (2.9%) 7.8% $105,800 21% 4.5
Utah
Logan 303 395 28% (100) (0.2%) 5.0% $114,820 18% 0.0
Ogden-Clearfield 1,506 1,642 32% (2,000) (1.0%) 6.9% $123,130 15% 0.0
Provo-Orem 1,540 1,841 28% (2,800) (1.6%) 6.9% $126,939 16% 0.0
Salt Lake City 1,998 3,878 31% (13,700) (2.2%) 6.8% $203,727 26% 3.4
St. George 732 755 20% (1,400) (2.9%) 9.0% $118,049 18% 0.0
Virginia
Charlottesville 540 564 21% (800) (0.8%) 5.6% $200,973 26% 0.0
Danville 73 103 20% (1,000) (2.5%) 11.6% $83,596 20% 0.6
Harrisonburg 399 424 33% 400 0.6% 6.1% $163,606 25% 0.0
Lynchburg 479 527 29% 700 0.7% 7.5% $131,862 22% 0.0
Richmond 2,804 3,544 31% (11,500) (1.9%) 7.5% $198,000 29% 3.5
Roanoke 415 433 22% (2,000) (1.3%) 7.2% $132,136 22% 0.0
Virginia Beach 3,079 4,992 21% (6,800) (0.9%) 7.1% $202,406 30% 4.0
Winchester 323 335 19% (1,100) (2.0%) 7.3% $134,441 20% 0.0
Washington
Bellingham 251 263 10% (3,100) (3.8%) 8.0% $187,508 35% 3.2
Bremerton 374 378 15% (600) (0.7%) 7.3% $241,750 35% 5.6
Kennewick 883 887 27% 3,900 4.1% 6.8% $165,716 28% 5.2
Longview 105 107 15% (700) (2.0%) 12.0% $120,880 24% 0.2
Mount Vernon 237 246 22% (2,300) (5.1%) 9.9% $166,150 28% 0.5
Olympia 964 1,184 37% (600) (0.6%) 7.5% $221,827 32% 5.9
Seattle (D) 4,459 6,329 23% (29,200) (2.1%) 7.9% $345,000 45% 6.1
Spokane 653 921 21% (5,900) (2.8%) 8.8% $159,250 30% 5.2
Tacoma (D) 1,485 1,894 28% (5,600) (2.1%) 9.3% $217,750 32% 5.0
Wenatchee 210 212 19% (200) (0.5%) 8.3% $170,156 32% 1.5
Yakima 145 145 12% 1,800 2.4% 9.1% $150,695 30% 4.3
West Virginia
Charleston 156 172 20% (2,600) (1.7%) 7.9% $125,291 27% 3.4
Huntington 33 35 6% (500) (0.4%) 8.3% $83,349 20% 0.8
Morgantown 25 82 31% 1,400 2.2% 5.9% $116,713 25% 0.3
Parkersburg 99 150 34% 400 0.6% 9.4% $84,880 18% 0.6
Weirton 19 19 10% (2,400) (5.1%) 13.4% $76,026 17% 2.5
Wheeling 2 2 1% 0 0.0% 10.0% $73,512 17% 0.9
Wisconsin
Appleton 394 434 20% (1,400) (1.2%) 7.6% $123,630 20% 4.2
Eau Claire 307 379 27% (1,100) (1.4%) 7.0% $111,417 20% 2.6
Fond Du Lac 54 168 27% (200) (0.5%) 8.0% $114,840 20% 2.0
Green Bay 497 727 23% (2,200) (1.4%) 7.7% $132,372 22% 2.2
Janesville 119 165 13% (1,900) (3.1%) 11.0% $107,014 19% 2.2
La Crosse 202 218 26% (1,600) (2.2%) 6.1% $117,047 22% 2.8
Madison 873 1,577 26% (6,600) (1.9%) 5.7% $201,477 30% 4.3
Milwaukee 951 1,673 20% (19,500) (2.4%) 8.5% $193,491 32% 5.2
Oshkosh-Neenah 232 376 26% (200) (0.2%) 7.2% $108,870 19% 0.8
Racine 183 191 15% (2,200) (2.9%) 9.9% $134,213 22% 4.4
Sheboygan 44 102 14% (1,200) (2.0%) 8.5% $121,206 21% 3.6
Wausau 152 196 14% (1,700) (2.5%) 9.0% $111,536 18% 1.3
Wyoming
Casper 188 634 80% (1,700) (4.3%) 7.2% $104,777 18% 0.0
* The government defines metro areas and includes metro divisions within some areas. In these instances, we report at the more detailed division level, because that is what most of our clients use for decision making. For example, we report on the Los Angeles and Orange County divisions separately, rather than the Los Angeles MSA, which includes both Los Angeles and Orange counties. We also use the more colloquial names used by business people, so we refer to the “Santa Ana-Anaheim-Irvine” division as “Orange County.” For the government definitions, visit: http://www.census.gov/population/www/metroareas/lists/2007/List1.txt

 


John Burns If you have any questions, please contact John Burns at (949) 870-1210 or by email.

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