In 2013, fresh off the biggest housing downturn in their lifetimes, 73 housing industry executives compiled the Top 10 Signs of a Housing Market Bubble at our Summit Conference in Laguna Beach, CA. Assessing the criteria that we set almost a decade ago (10 quantitative and 10 qualitative), we have found that 16 of the 20 housing bubble signs are now flashing red.
In last month’s client-exclusive housing outlook webinar, we called out some signs we are seeing:
Presentation Excerpt Recorded on September 15, 2022.
- Qualitative Sign: In ~2005, Jimmy Buffett played at a land broker party. We just checked off the “outlandish parties” bubble sign when a mortgage company paid for Imagine Dragons at their conference last month.
- Quantitative Sign: The industry optimists keep reminding us that low supply and pristine mortgages are some of the saving graces this time around.
For the rest of the signs we are seeing, check out the updated graphic below. The signs listed in green are not widespread and point to no bubble. On the flipside, signs listed in red are prominent in most markets and signify an overall housing market bubble.
Are you seeing any additional signs happening in your market?
We keep reminding ourselves that there is a lot we don’t know. If you can think of any additional signs or see any black swans out there, please let us know.