Oil Spill Impact: Houston is No Detroit | John Burns Real Estate Consulting

Oil Spill Impact: Houston is No Detroit


While the fate of deepwater drilling continues to be debated, uncertainty grows about the Houston economy, which has a level of dependence on oil and energy-related industries. Given the fact there is a lot of interest in this discussion (and that Houston is the largest permitting market in the country), we have taken a deeper dive than usual into the research for this free analysis.

While we don’t expect the Deepwater Horizon disaster to have a severe impact to the national homebuilders on a broad scale, we do expect some impact to Houston in the short-term. In fact, we are already starting to see it. According to our latest survey, average net sales per new home community were down 17.5% month-over-month. Anecdotal comments from the market support that traffic and closings are slowing dramatically as well.

Though no massive oil/gas layoffs have occurred to date, small ones are being reported. Many executives we talk to expect big employment changes will hit the oil companies very soon, although some point out that the cleanup efforts might actually be an economic boom. Most importantly, uncertainty about jobs and the local economy will most certainly affect housing decisions here in the next several months.

But the shorter-term challenges won’t snowball into long-term despair. Here is what you need to think about as you plan for your current and future business in this metro:

Houston is a huge market for many national builders and the economic impact to the oil industry is a much greater threat here than the physical impact of oil reaching the shores (which is populated by a second-home/beach area resident). The following graph shows all the primary metros along the Gulf coast region, where there is likely to be some oil-related affect – and we break down the total number of public builder active communities in each. Three public builders have 20-24% of their communities in the Houston metro area, and another three have 11-16% of their communities there.

Quantifying what you might suspect: Houston is a U.S. energy headquarters and a world center for every segment of the oil and gas industry. According to research from the Greater Houston Partnership, more than 3,000 energy-related firms are located in the MSA including 500+ exploration and production firms, 150+ pipeline transportation establishments and hundreds of additional manufacturers and wholesalers of energy-sector products. At the start of this year, the MSA held:

  • 31% of the nation’s jobs in extraction
  • 14% of the jobs that support activities for mining
  • 14% of the machinery manufacturing jobs (tooling, etc)

But, there’s more diversity than you probably realize: Houston’s service providing industries account for 81% of jobs in the MSA and have garnered 93% of the net job growth over the past 10 years. Over the last five years, the seaport has developed an impressive import/export business . . . and the list goes on. Clearly, there is a lot of business in the metro that is not directly tied to deep water drilling. Here is an official breakdown of employment sectors:

 

The government and other wildcards: There are an incredible number of “what-if?” factors in play in the metro and that’s paralyzing many as they try to think long-term about this market.

  • From a regulatory perspective – there is not a lot of consensus and the heated debate rages between the environmentalists and the economy concerns. Meanwhile the latest on over the drilling moratorium (now in place until Nov) has more deepwater drilling rigs entertaining the idea of transfer. We have talked to many people on the likely outcome and our best estimate is that the economic impact will triumph over environmental concerns in the end. At this point, a scaled back renewable energy bill seems most likely with some add-ons like the “trust fund”. It also seems likely that the government will remove some of the tax benefits the oil companies currently enjoy. In general, most restrictions will be implemented by way of taxes.
  • From a major employment perspective – cancelled funding for the NASA shuttle program will likely result in the loss of several thousand high-paying jobs (and the ripple effect of that). But the widely-held expectation of Exxon Mobile’s relocation of a business-center mall to the metro’s north 1-45 corridor could more than offset the NASA impact. These are just two examples of many in play.

Our conclusions: Significant alterations have taken place in the Houston economy since the last oil crisis – and this will certainly reduce its vulnerability to the Deepwater Horizon disaster and yet-to-be-determined government mandates. However, there is no denying that oil, gas and overall energy continues to influence Houston’s economy far more than it does the nation as a whole.

  • In the short-term: Houston will feel the impact. We project the metro will only have at most 22,000 single-family permits this year (down from 22,369 last year and 42,217 in 2007!) and we expect to see a continued drop over the next two years.
  • In the longer term: Affordable housing and Houston’s welcoming and aggressive business environment full of entrepreneurs will prevail as one of the top housing markets in the country. There are still land deals to be done, the entitlements are relatively painless and we think Texas overall will be the beneficiary of business relocation due to Phoenix’s restrictive immigration legislation.

In other words, Oil won’t be to Houston what Auto was to Detroit . . . instead, picture the carnival game “Whack-A-Mole” where heads continue to pop up in new areas – even after they’ve been beaten down.

This is the most current available data for all variables and markets.

Permits Statistics
Employment Statistics
Affordability
12-
12-
Total
NF Payroll Employment
State
Metro Area*
Month
S. Fam. Permits
Month
Total Permits
Permits / Peak Permits
1-Yr Growth
1-Yr Growth Rate
Unemp Rate
Median Home Price
Housing Costs / Income
JBREC Affordability Index
Alabama
Anniston-Oxford 134 142 30% (100) (0.2%) 10.0% $87,031 19% 0.4
Auburn-Opelika 752 1,306 59% 400 0.8% 8.5% $126,759 26% 0.0
Birmingham 1,804 1,923 25% (13,900) (2.8%) 9.6% $142,622 23% 0.5
Decatur 126 126 13% 300 0.6% 10.5% $93,483 18% 0.0
Dothan 294 392 52% (1,200) (2.0%) 9.0% $88,275 18% 0.0
Florence 153 220 28% 400 0.7% 9.7% $93,265 20% 0.2
Gadsden 137 137 34% 0 0.0% 10.0% $84,529 20% 0.6
Huntsville 2,277 2,612 52% (300) (0.1%) 7.7% $118,576 18% 0.0
Mobile 1,295 2,017 73% (3,400) (1.9%) 11.0% $122,491 25% 1.3
Montgomery 539 851 33% (2,800) (1.6%) 9.5% $132,884 23% 0.7
Tuscaloosa 418 903 35% 900 1.0% 9.0% $119,735 24% 0.2
Alaska
Anchorage 379 501 6% 300 0.2% 7.3% $174,669 20% 0.0
Fairbanks 43 43 6% 300 0.8% 6.9% $141,895 19% 0.4
Arizona
Flagstaff 150 560 41% (900) (1.4%) 8.4% $280,000 50% 6.0
Phoenix 9,788 10,322 15% (12,000) (0.7%) 8.7% $138,000 21% 1.7
Prescott 330 522 12% (500) (0.9%) 9.7% $136,148 26% 0.0
Tucson 2,157 2,453 19% (1,300) (0.4%) 8.5% $159,000 29% 1.4
Yuma 654 714 26% (1,300) (2.6%) 27.2% $125,000 26% 2.6
Arkansas
Fayetteville 1,280 1,577 21% 500 0.2% 6.1% $101,068 17% 0.0
Fort Smith 637 961 73% (2,300) (1.9%) 7.8% $77,839 15% 0.1
Hot Springs 43 43 11% (200) (0.5%) 7.6% $108,806 22% 0.0
Jonesboro 516 715 73% 300 0.6% 7.3% $73,830 14% 0.0
Little Rock 1,984 2,576 45% (8,000) (2.4%) 6.8% $134,537 22% 2.4
Pine Bluff 68 159 39% (600) (1.6%) 9.1% $65,262 13% 0.0
California
Bakersfield 1,664 1,924 22% (2,300) (1.0%) 15.7% $135,000 23% 1.9
Chico 250 411 21% (1,300) (1.8%) 13.3% $185,000 35% 2.6
El Centro 128 136 6% (1,900) (4.1%) 27.5% $120,000 26% 1.8
Fresno 1,857 2,189 30% (7,500) (2.6%) 15.9% $157,250 28% 2.6
Hanford 185 233 17% (300) (0.8%) 15.3% $126,500 21% 2.1
Los Angeles (D) 2,427 5,836 8% (69,500) (1.8%) 12.1% $350,000 49% 3.7
Madera 68 72 3% (300) (0.9%) 15.0% $137,000 25% 1.6
Merced 90 95 3% (1,300) (2.3%) 18.1% $120,000 22% 1.1
Modesto 218 218 3% (1,300) (0.9%) 17.3% $147,000 23% 1.0
Monterey 141 248 9% (1,300) (1.1%) 11.0% $258,750 35% 1.7
Napa 104 110 11% (500) (0.8%) 9.0% $340,000 41% 2.6
Oakland (D) 2,164 3,080 13% (28,200) (2.9%) 11.0% $330,000 35% 2.0
Orange County (D) 1,510 2,327 9% (14,800) (1.1%) 9.2% $515,000 53% 5.2
Redding 198 245 10% (800) (1.3%) 15.4% $171,000 31% 2.1
Riverside-San Bernardino 5,387 6,568 11% (35,200) (3.1%) 13.9% $185,000 25% 1.7
Sacramento 2,462 2,764 12% (22,700) (2.7%) 12.0% $210,000 28% 1.6
San Diego 2,107 3,319 8% (11,900) (1.0%) 10.0% $377,000 47% 4.0
San Francisco (D) 409 820 12% (25,200) (2.7%) 8.9% $700,000 70% 4.4
San Jose 865 1,862 19% (11,200) (1.3%) 11.2% $575,000 53% 5.0
San Luis Obispo 331 355 10% (3,900) (3.9%) 9.5% $370,000 52% 3.9
Santa Barbara 248 361 13% (2,800) (1.7%) 8.3% $314,500 43% 2.6
Santa Cruz 122 156 11% (2,500) (2.8%) 11.5% $545,000 66% 5.0
Santa Rosa 316 525 9% (5,400) (3.1%) 10.0% $347,500 44% 2.6
Stockton 861 861 12% (2,700) (1.4%) 16.2% $169,000 24% 1.1
Vallejo-Fairfield 670 670 11% (3,400) (2.8%) 11.8% $217,000 25% 1.3
Ventura 204 451 6% (5,200) (1.9%) 10.2% $420,000 44% 4.1
Visalia-Porterville 940 1,113 31% (1,300) (1.2%) 15.5% $133,000 24% 1.5
Yuba-Sutter 141 143 5% (1,600) (4.1%) 19.3% $164,500 28% 1.3
Colorado
Boulder 160 541 11% (1,800) (1.1%) 5.8% $315,000 36% 5.0
Colorado Springs 1,637 1,640 15% (5,100) (2.0%) 8.3% $181,000 24% 1.2
Denver 3,387 4,434 16% (24,900) (2.1%) 7.7% $225,000 29% 4.3
Fort Collins 441 863 24% (1,700) (1.3%) 6.2% $216,500 29% 2.9
Grand Junction 394 456 22% (2,700) (4.3%) 8.8% $144,381 22% 0.0
Greeley 920 964 22% (1,800) (2.3%) 8.7% $163,750 23% 1.4
Pueblo 216 359 25% (600) (1.0%) 8.8% $79,087 15% 0.0
Connecticut
Bridgeport 566 1,029 20% (300) (0.1%) 8.1% $378,296 36% 0.4
Hartford 1,196 1,519 14% (4,300) (0.8%) 8.9% $232,426 28% 0.2
New Haven 457 1,043 14% (3,400) (1.3%) 9.0% $232,441 30% 0.7
Norwich 312 455 16% (1,000) (0.8%) 8.4% $212,850 26% 0.4
Delaware
Dover 768 879 40% 400 0.6% 8.1% $197,642 35% 6.7
Wilmington (D) 1,059 1,296 20% (1,900) (0.6%) 8.7% $198,189 30% 4.4
District of Columbia
Washington D.C. (D) 7,900 10,622 28% 10,800 0.4% 6.2% $296,807 26% 1.2
Florida
Daytona Beach 686 757 10% (2,800) (1.8%) 11.7% $105,000 20% 0.5
Fort Lauderdale (D) 814 1,209 6% (11,200) (1.6%) 9.8% $169,500 27% 1.1
Fort Myers 1,117 1,206 4% (4,300) (2.1%) 12.5% $92,000 15% 0.5
Gainesville 427 552 17% (300) (0.2%) 7.6% $157,087 32% 0.8
Jacksonville 3,920 4,192 17% (5,100) (0.9%) 10.8% $144,000 22% 2.9
Lakeland 1,313 1,395 11% (3,800) (1.9%) 12.0% $105,000 19% 1.4
Melbourne 1,127 1,151 12% (2,900) (1.5%) 11.0% $109,000 18% 0.0
Miami (D) 835 1,995 8% (9,900) (1.0%) 12.3% $183,400 35% 3.6
Naples 745 1,326 16% (2,900) (2.6%) 11.3% $210,000 30% 2.0
Ocala 479 487 7% (2,700) (2.9%) 13.6% $100,000 20% 1.6
Orlando 4,468 4,949 14% (13,500) (1.3%) 11.1% $135,000 22% 1.2
Panama City 249 343 6% 300 0.4% 9.2% $158,435 28% 3.8
Pensacola 1,318 1,738 27% 700 0.4% 9.9% $148,598 27% 4.4
Port St. Lucie 436 459 4% (800) (0.7%) 12.8% $110,000 18% 0.5
Punta Gorda 276 294 6% (600) (1.5%) 12.0% $112,500 20% 1.4
Sarasota 1,660 2,098 15% (2,700) (1.1%) 11.5% $155,000 27% 3.0
Tallahassee 604 868 20% 200 0.1% 8.0% $157,806 29% 1.5
Tampa 4,558 7,269 19% (15,100) (1.3%) 11.7% $125,000 23% 2.4
Vero Beach 287 339 8% (1,400) (3.1%) 13.4% $120,500 22% 1.9
West Palm Beach (D) 1,375 1,531 7% (7,900) (1.6%) 11.3% $210,000 33% 4.2
Georgia
Albany 192 228 18% (200) (0.3%) 10.6% $82,682 18% 0.0
Athens 266 288 12% 500 0.6% 7.4% $121,009 24% 0.0
Atlanta 6,423 7,553 10% (36,500) (1.6%) 9.9% $118,942 17% 0.3
Augusta 2,505 2,624 48% 2,300 1.1% 8.6% $105,034 20% 0.0
Brunswick 441 441 35% (1,300) (3.0%) 9.5% $130,479 23% 0.1
Columbus 834 1,472 66% 400 0.3% 9.2% $97,888 20% 0.0
Dalton 128 145 13% (700) (1.1%) 11.6% $95,167 19% 0.6
Gainesville 283 283 11% (700) (1.0%) 8.9% $130,118 22% 0.5
Hinesville 210 462 53% 200 1.0% 8.2% $98,717 21% 0.4
Macon 302 302 16% (1,000) (1.0%) 10.1% $91,565 19% 0.0
Rome 61 61 8% 1,400 3.6% 10.3% $92,158 19% 0.7
Savannah 1,245 1,620 33% 200 0.1% 8.3% $131,012 23% 1.8
Valdosta 571 1,048 72% (2,000) (3.6%) 8.3% $103,320 23% 0.6
Warner Robins 648 648 31% 0 0.0% 7.3% $91,257 14% 0.0
Hawaii
Honolulu 937 1,823 37% 4,400 1.0% 5.2% $626,830 73% 5.0
Idaho
Boise City 2,121 2,169 19% (6,100) (2.4%) 8.9% $142,219 21% 0.2
Coeur D’Alene 698 815 30% (800) (1.5%) 9.0% $140,685 24% 1.1
Idaho Falls 375 461 24% (700) (1.4%) 6.3% $97,533 15% 0.3
Lewiston 79 91 22% (300) (1.2%) 6.3% $129,420 24% 2.2
Pocatello 158 161 23% (500) (1.4%) 7.6% $94,992 16% 0.3
Illinois
Bloomington 330 441 26% (900) (1.0%) 6.9% $161,024 25% 1.6
Champaign-Urbana 336 414 19% (600) (0.5%) 7.8% $138,440 26% 4.4
Chicago (D) 2,887 4,953 11% (61,500) (1.7%) 10.4% $191,750 29% 1.9
Danville 11 11 6% (300) (1.0%) 11.1% $55,311 13% 1.0
Decatur 101 103 17% (2,000) (3.7%) 10.9% $87,660 18% 3.3
Kankakee-Bradley 92 96 12% 300 0.7% 11.7% $128,617 22% 5.4
Lake-Kenosha (D) 709 762 12% (11,900) (3.1%) 9.5% $211,269 26% 0.9
Peoria 645 714 37% (2,200) (1.2%) 9.3% $113,902 20% 4.6
Rockford 285 289 11% 600 0.4% 13.9% $107,216 20% 5.4
Springfield 390 492 32% (1,900) (1.7%) 7.1% $119,495 19% 2.3
Indiana
Anderson 65 74 10% 1,000 2.4% 10.9% $79,542 15% 0.6
Bloomington 261 305 25% 3,800 4.7% 7.5% $120,943 25% 0.8
Columbus 132 132 22% (400) (0.9%) 9.3% $115,181 19% 0.5
Elkhart-Goshen 161 214 13% 2,700 2.8% 13.7% $100,759 17% 0.0
Evansville 684 794 37% (100) (0.1%) 8.5% $87,849 16% 0.6
Fort Wayne 856 1,002 27% 400 0.2% 10.0% $102,861 18% 2.3
Gary (D) 1,091 1,297 28% (1,800) (0.7%) 10.0% $119,978 20% 2.8
Indianapolis 4,058 6,439 38% (5,400) (0.6%) 8.9% $121,686 19% 2.1
Kokomo 18 20 3% 4,100 11.2% 12.0% $81,142 14% 0.2
Lafayette 496 549 30% (3,800) (4.0%) 8.9% $105,110 20% 0.4
Michigan City 138 162 27% (300) (0.7%) 11.4% $107,799 20% 1.7
Muncie 46 48 8% 600 1.2% 10.7% $72,461 16% 0.1
South Bend 314 361 18% (1,900) (1.4%) 11.3% $79,163 15% 1.4
Terre Haute 150 158 23% (900) (1.3%) 10.8% $74,474 16% 0.5
Iowa
Ames 124 186 20% (200) (0.4%) 4.8% $125,364 21% 0.0
Cedar Rapids 700 1,202 59% (300) (0.2%) 6.4% $143,640 23% 4.2
Davenport 444 812 53% (1,000) (0.6%) 7.8% $108,930 20% 4.7
Des Moines 2,145 3,035 48% (4,200) (1.3%) 6.1% $141,953 20% 0.7
Dubuque 395 586 67% (1,100) (2.0%) 6.2% $111,584 19% 1.1
Iowa City 578 681 40% (100) (0.1%) 4.4% $146,573 23% 0.2
Sioux City 217 251 21% (1,700) (2.3%) 6.7% $83,679 15% 0.1
Waterloo 394 424 51% (1,300) (1.4%) 5.9% $119,025 22% 5.7
Kansas
Lawrence 219 219 12% (200) (0.4%) 5.6% $138,631 23% 0.7
Topeka 335 497 36% (100) (0.1%) 6.3% $103,074 16% 0.0
Wichita 1,416 1,669 37% (6,100) (2.1%) 7.8% $122,246 19% 2.2
Kentucky
Bowling Green 335 426 31% (1,000) (1.7%) 9.0% $102,842 22% 1.0
Elizabethtown 582 653 49% 1,000 2.2% 9.1% $101,292 20% 1.3
Lexington 1,364 1,578 31% 2,700 1.1% 8.2% $142,513 26% 3.3
Louisville 2,343 2,599 29% (300) (0.1%) 9.9% $134,039 26% 5.1
Owensboro 274 280 26% 800 1.6% 8.9% $79,433 17% 1.0
Louisiana
Alexandria 349 353 37% (1,100) (1.7%) 6.6% $85,817 20% 0.0
Baton Rouge 3,174 3,339 37% (3,200) (0.9%) 7.1% $170,277 32% 5.2
Houma 444 459 39% (2,100) (2.2%) 5.3% $108,707 21% 1.9
Lafayette 846 907 18% (700) (0.5%) 5.6% $122,429 24% 0.5
Lake Charles 840 1,247 83% (2,500) (2.7%) 6.7% $100,148 21% 1.0
Monroe 268 282 23% (600) (0.8%) 7.5% $89,150 21% 0.4
New Orleans 1,960 2,325 18% (1,200) (0.2%) 7.0% $162,094 32% 5.1
Shreveport 1,184 1,244 41% (700) (0.4%) 6.6% $153,149 35% 5.6
Maine
Bangor 319 415 42% (1,000) (1.5%) 7.5% $121,724 24% 1.4
Lewiston-Auburn 186 210 25% 300 0.6% 8.1% $124,953 23% 0.8
Portland 1,259 1,306 23% (4,000) (2.1%) 6.6% $211,809 32% 2.5
Maryland
Baltimore 3,512 5,757 30% (900) (0.1%) 7.4% $250,000 34% 5.8
Bethesda (D) 1,764 2,105 17% 2,400 0.4% 5.5% $369,100 37% 5.7
Cumberland 93 150 37% (300) (0.8%) 8.3% $102,500 23% 3.8
Hagerstown 746 812 20% (600) (0.6%) 9.3% $145,337 25% 0.0
Salisbury 204 338 26% (900) (1.7%) 8.2% $135,296 26% 0.6
Massachusetts
Barnstable Town 357 395 8% (1,400) (1.4%) 9.1% $341,422 43% 2.1
Boston (D) 1,154 2,124 20% (700) 0.0% 7.9% $336,576 38% 1.9
Cambridge (D) 1,275 1,749 23% (3,500) (0.1%) 8.2% $365,324 35% 0.6
Pittsfield 101 148 16% (200) (0.6%) 8.9% $199,441 32% 1.7
Springfield 517 632 13% (8,600) (3.0%) 9.9% $201,854 29% 2.3
Worcester 1,175 2,789 37% (5,200) (2.2%) 9.8% $224,832 26% 1.1
Michigan
Ann Arbor 276 329 11% (1,400) (0.7%) 8.8% $150,257 21% 0.0
Battle Creek 43 43 7% 400 0.7% 11.5% $76,309 15% 0.2
Bay City 73 73 16% (500) (1.4%) 12.1% $72,388 14% 0.0
Detroit (D) 287 423 7% (12,800) (1.8%) 14.6% $83,838 16% 0.2
Flint 84 150 4% (1,200) (0.9%) 14.7% $70,776 13% 0.0
Grand Rapids 954 983 20% (4,700) (1.3%) 10.9% $101,248 17% 1.8
Holland 435 480 18% (2,000) (2.0%) 11.8% $125,983 19% 0.2
Jackson 62 62 6% (1,200) (2.2%) 13.0% $86,163 17% 0.6
Kalamazoo 406 415 17% (2,900) (2.1%) 11.2% $105,826 19% 0.0
Lansing 353 360 11% 2,000 0.9% 10.2% $87,356 15% 1.1
Monroe 100 100 8% (1,000) (2.6%) 12.7% $107,997 16% 0.0
Muskegon 67 93 9% (1,200) (2.0%) 14.0% $79,807 16% 0.2
Niles 125 137 17% (1,200) (2.0%) 12.8% $108,539 21% 1.3
Saginaw 104 112 12% 1,400 1.7% 12.3% $67,245 13% 2.4
Warren (D) 1,331 1,438 7% (22,600) (2.2%) 13.0% $138,698 19% 0.0
Minnesota
Duluth 504 601 35% 100 0.1% 7.0% $104,330 21% 5.5
Minneapolis 4,267 5,631 20% (17,800) (1.0%) 6.4% $170,977 24% 2.2
Rochester 456 648 32% 500 0.5% 5.3% $123,815 18% 0.6
St. Cloud 335 512 25% 900 0.9% 6.2% $119,678 21% 2.3
Mississippi
Gulfport-Biloxi 1,779 2,342 43% (1,400) (1.3%) 9.4% $134,128 30% 5.1
Hattiesburg 51 61 5% 900 1.5% 9.3% $90,226 21% 0.3
Jackson 1,404 1,404 31% (400) (0.2%) 8.9% $127,452 26% 3.1
Pascagoula 539 593 39% (2,200) (3.7%) 10.1% $99,648 18% 0.0
Missouri
Columbia 543 591 25% 0 0.0% 5.8% $143,955 28% 2.0
Jefferson City 228 344 30% 100 0.1% 6.5% $103,712 19% 1.0
Joplin 152 166 22% (1,000) (1.3%) 7.8% $80,844 19% 1.0
Kansas City 2,089 3,746 20% (11,600) (1.2%) 8.3% $141,732 21% 1.8
Springfield 928 1,404 27% 2,200 1.1% 7.9% $117,944 24% 2.3
St. Joseph 90 134 31% 3,300 5.7% 7.7% $82,480 17% 0.1
St. Louis 4,556 5,898 32% (8,000) (0.6%) 9.2% $185,331 31% 5.9
Montana
Billings 487 589 40% (2,000) (2.5%) 5.2% $116,864 19% 0.2
Great Falls 129 185 58% (800) (2.2%) 5.7% $96,209 18% 0.3
Missoula 214 279 25% 1,100 1.9% 6.6% $165,768 31% 1.7
Nebraska
Lincoln 708 738 27% (1,200) (0.7%) 4.2% $136,257 20% 0.7
Omaha 3,063 3,287 50% (6,000) (1.3%) 5.1% $137,696 19% 0.6
Nevada
Carson City 12 30 4% (800) (2.7%) 13.2% $148,725 23% 0.0
Las Vegas 5,025 6,474 17% (30,700) (3.7%) 14.1% $137,500 19% 0.1
Reno 554 872 14% (4,900) (2.5%) 13.3% $175,000 24% 0.1
New Hampshire
Manchester 367 653 9% (400) (0.4%) 5.9% $233,365 23% 0.5
New Jersey
Atlantic City 498 589 15% (2,100) (1.5%) 12.4% $221,997 31% 4.4
Camden (D) 1,380 2,187 26% (8,100) (1.6%) 9.9% $203,500 23% 1.1
Edison (D) 2,924 3,978 16% (28,400) (2.8%) 8.9% $326,140 31% 3.3
Newark-Union (D) 1,441 2,277 25% (26,200) (2.6%) 9.5% $390,829 40% 3.4
Ocean City 266 481 20% 500 1.2% 10.6% $247,602 35% 3.8
Trenton 171 394 11% (4,300) (1.8%) 7.9% $256,280 27% 2.3
Vineland 265 299 41% (900) (1.5%) 13.0% $140,713 22% 0.7
New Mexico
Albuquerque 1,626 1,765 20% (2,500) (0.7%) 8.2% $201,250 35% 4.9
Farmington 216 302 51% (2,000) (4.0%) 9.2% $195,134 37% 5.4
Las Cruces 914 1,004 40% 400 0.6% 7.8% $102,003 23% 0.6
Santa Fe 115 115 9% (400) (0.7%) 6.6% $203,926 31% 0.3
New York
Albany 1,252 1,446 27% (2,500) (0.6%) 6.5% $187,605 28% 3.2
Binghamton 136 186 14% (1,800) (1.6%) 7.8% $116,355 22% 4.1
Buffalo 1,175 1,502 32% 1,600 0.3% 7.6% $117,603 21% 3.0
Elmira 38 70 24% 900 2.3% 7.9% $98,428 20% 3.9
Glens Falls 294 337 21% 200 0.4% 7.1% $141,434 26% 2.6
Ithaca 103 138 21% 400 0.6% 5.2% $155,541 28% 2.3
Kingston 179 295 21% (100) (0.2%) 7.4% $240,823 36% 4.4
Nassau (D) 1,255 1,348 12% 2,700 0.2% 6.7% $393,239 37% 5.3
New York (D) 1,414 8,279 20% (14,300) (0.3%) 9.1% $473,761 68% 5.4
Poughkeepsie 799 1,397 27% (2,600) (1.0%) 7.4% $223,499 27% 1.2
Rochester 1,328 1,744 34% (1,300) (0.3%) 7.3% $123,403 20% 3.3
Syracuse 868 1,004 29% 600 0.2% 7.6% $128,357 23% 4.7
Utica-Rome 355 450 34% 600 0.5% 6.9% $109,702 22% 2.5
North Carolina
Asheville 1,185 1,340 31% (1,800) (1.1%) 8.2% $161,164 32% 3.6
Burlington 541 1,065 53% (1,100) (1.9%) 10.9% $105,466 21% 0.0
Charlotte 5,246 7,394 29% (3,600) (0.4%) 10.9% $160,400 24% 2.9
Durham 1,494 2,214 34% (900) (0.3%) 7.3% $200,900 34% 4.8
Fayetteville 1,728 2,880 67% (300) (0.2%) 8.7% $101,099 19% 0.0
Goldsboro 283 283 41% (1,400) (3.1%) 8.4% $97,087 21% 0.2
Greensboro 1,512 2,144 33% (2,100) (0.6%) 10.6% $128,667 25% 0.0
Greenville 422 630 24% 400 0.5% 9.7% $98,828 21% 0.0
Hickory 549 603 25% (2,700) (1.8%) 13.0% $101,147 21% 0.3
Jacksonville 1,912 2,360 100% 1,600 3.3% 7.5% $121,440 23% 0.0
Raleigh-Cary 5,033 5,300 30% (2,900) (0.6%) 8.2% $185,180 26% 2.1
Rocky Mount 229 235 23% (500) (0.8%) 12.9% $85,980 18% 0.2
Wilmington 1,651 1,795 20% (3,300) (2.3%) 9.4% $187,720 35% 2.8
Winston-Salem 996 1,293 29% 500 0.2% 9.4% $114,016 21% 0.1
North Dakota
Bismarck 572 651 60% 1,100 1.8% 3.1% $161,915 21% 2.7
Fargo 945 1,661 59% (100) (0.1%) 3.5% $145,014 22% 1.0
Grand Forks 164 334 50% 300 0.6% 3.8% $118,304 19% 0.0
Ohio
Akron 627 678 17% (7,300) (2.3%) 10.0% $123,500 21% 3.4
Canton 316 374 24% (3,600) (2.2%) 11.6% $93,373 18% 2.1
Cincinnati 3,395 3,792 24% (10,400) (1.0%) 9.7% $133,506 19% 1.1
Cleveland 2,026 2,204 28% (4,500) (0.4%) 9.1% $124,732 21% 2.6
Columbus 2,888 4,858 28% (8,900) (1.0%) 8.7% $145,000 21% 2.9
Dayton 801 959 23% (3,800) (1.0%) 10.9% $113,824 20% 2.7
Lima 35 74 15% (300) (0.6%) 10.9% $85,854 16% 0.4
Mansfield 52 78 13% (100) (0.2%) 11.6% $82,899 17% 0.9
Sandusky 43 47 8% 700 1.8% 9.5% $107,581 18% 0.1
Springfield 52 52 8% 0 0.0% 10.2% $89,671 17% 0.4
Toledo 533 676 16% 700 0.2% 11.2% $85,909 15% 1.3
Youngstown 323 355 19% 800 0.4% 11.6% $75,614 15% 2.3
Oklahoma
Lawton 344 648 59% 1,100 2.5% 6.2% $87,568 15% 0.5
Oklahoma City 3,341 4,057 19% 600 0.1% 6.5% $141,224 22% 3.8
Tulsa 2,782 3,324 27% (8,700) (2.1%) 7.7% $131,067 20% 0.5
Oregon
Bend 377 387 9% (1,800) (2.9%) 13.7% $141,817 21% 0.0
Corvallis 99 117 15% (1,100) (2.9%) 6.7% $182,806 27% 0.4
Eugene 516 667 24% (1,000) (0.7%) 10.3% $201,389 36% 5.4
Medford 321 340 16% (900) (1.2%) 12.2% $143,782 26% 0.2
Portland 3,559 4,329 22% (20,100) (2.1%) 10.2% $234,000 33% 5.2
Salem 613 861 26% (600) (0.4%) 10.3% $169,700 28% 4.8
Pennsylvania
Allentown 1,439 1,617 30% (1,100) (0.3%) 9.9% $221,372 28% 3.3
Altoona 86 110 22% 300 0.5% 7.9% $91,779 16% 0.0
Erie 400 601 59% (1,100) (0.9%) 10.0% $103,907 18% 1.1
Harrisburg 1,399 1,632 44% (5,600) (1.7%) 8.3% $147,807 19% 0.8
Johnstown 78 78 21% (600) (1.0%) 10.0% $82,837 18% 2.5
Lancaster 1,309 1,539 43% (1,600) (0.7%) 8.0% $169,636 23% 2.1
Lebanon 330 330 39% (200) (0.4%) 7.8% $139,216 21% 1.6
Philadelphia (D) 3,099 4,081 23% (16,400) (0.9%) 9.3% $222,301 26% 3.2
Pittsburgh 3,017 3,255 46% (4,300) (0.4%) 8.5% $128,838 20% 1.4
Reading 398 412 19% (1,000) (0.6%) 10.0% $157,132 22% 4.1
Scranton 620 654 30% (1,400) (0.5%) 10.3% $122,068 20% 0.8
State College 298 354 32% 600 0.8% 6.5% $159,511 26% 1.2
Williamsport 96 102 19% (100) (0.2%) 9.6% $110,815 19% 0.9
York 1,146 1,229 39% (300) (0.2%) 9.4% $153,005 21% 1.2
Rhode Island
Providence 1,307 1,445 12% (13,500) (2.5%) 12.1% $229,456 34% 1.7
South Carolina
Anderson 318 318 17% (1,300) (2.2%) 11.0% $92,208 19% 0.0
Charleston 3,028 3,354 31% 3,600 1.3% 8.8% $198,000 33% 3.9
Columbia 2,919 3,588 44% 900 0.3% 8.9% $127,500 22% 2.8
Florence 318 372 28% 600 0.7% 11.1% $114,322 25% 2.6
Greenville 1,501 1,661 30% (2,600) (0.9%) 9.5% $136,500 26% 5.2
Myrtle Beach 1,645 1,865 16% (200) (0.2%) 10.7% $149,798 30% 0.7
Spartanburg 678 678 25% (1,600) (1.3%) 11.0% $124,343 24% 4.4
Sumter 394 490 54% (1,500) (4.1%) 12.1% $94,856 21% 0.0
South Dakota
Rapid City 481 691 50% (300) (0.5%) 4.8% $118,324 19% 0.4
Sioux Falls 1,057 1,575 63% (500) (0.4%) 4.6% $155,186 21% 2.5
Tennessee
Chattanooga 1,057 1,174 31% 1,100 0.5% 8.7% $121,997 25% 1.2
Clarksville 1,338 1,483 46% 100 0.1% 10.5% $97,857 20% 0.8
Cleveland 283 584 62% (500) (1.3%) 9.4% $101,751 24% 0.5
Jackson 290 290 26% (300) (0.5%) 10.2% $82,838 19% 0.2
Johnson City 532 561 39% 400 0.5% 8.9% $108,847 27% 1.5
Kingsport 527 604 39% (900) (0.8%) 8.8% $104,024 25% 1.1
Knoxville 1,485 2,186 34% 2,700 0.8% 8.0% $142,352 30% 3.8
Memphis 1,877 2,581 23% (15,500) (2.6%) 10.2% $129,133 26% 3.0
Morristown 245 255 33% (700) (1.5%) 11.8% $99,169 24% 0.2
Nashville 4,254 5,510 30% (5,500) (0.8%) 9.0% $150,000 26% 4.7
Texas
Abilene 227 343 16% (100) (0.2%) 6.3% $100,500 21% 4.0
Amarillo 659 697 19% (500) (0.4%) 5.4% $122,100 23% 4.0
Austin 6,978 8,431 32% 4,000 0.5% 6.9% $189,300 27% 4.5
Beaumont 1,617 1,631 58% (1,600) (1.0%) 10.6% $123,100 23% 4.2
Brownsville 1,074 1,178 30% 1,100 0.9% 10.9% $96,700 27% 3.7
College Station 922 1,011 29% 3,200 3.3% 5.8% $150,200 32% 3.9
Corpus Christi 1,116 1,192 19% (300) (0.2%) 8.0% $133,100 27% 4.8
Dallas (D) 11,407 13,270 18% 5,600 0.3% 8.1% $163,700 24% 3.5
El Paso 2,946 4,361 67% 2,500 0.9% 9.3% $133,200 32% 5.1
Fort Worth (D) 5,802 6,895 18% (2,200) (0.3%) 8.1% $139,191 21% 3.0
Houston 25,112 29,529 39% (22,000) (0.9%) 8.3% $153,500 23% 3.8
Killeen 2,124 2,453 54% 2,600 2.1% 7.3% $129,923 23% 4.6
Laredo 670 766 32% 300 0.3% 8.5% $86,527 21% 0.8
Longview 209 306 19% 0 0.0% 7.4% $131,800 26% 5.1
Lubbock 840 1,112 27% 400 0.3% 5.7% $114,900 23% 1.6
McAllen 2,862 3,325 36% 3,500 1.6% 11.2% $104,300 27% 1.9
Midland 388 388 10% (800) (1.2%) 5.4% $122,357 20% 3.2
Odessa 274 386 18% (600) (1.0%) 8.2% $138,000 27% 4.9
San Angelo 211 331 21% 1,200 2.7% 6.1% $113,600 23% 5.0
San Antonio 6,128 6,867 31% (7,600) (0.9%) 7.1% $145,500 26% 4.7
Sherman 110 115 11% (500) (1.2%) 8.3% $96,700 18% 3.8
Texarkana 85 155 18% 300 0.5% 7.4% $75,592 15% 0.0
Tyler 173 222 8% 800 0.9% 7.5% $142,000 26% 5.0
Victoria 115 115 6% (600) (1.2%) 7.6% $116,900 21% 2.4
Waco 498 824 28% 2,500 2.4% 6.8% $109,000 23% 2.0
Wichita Falls 187 241 27% (1,000) (1.7%) 7.6% $105,200 20% 4.1
Utah
Logan 483 580 41% (300) (0.6%) 5.1% $122,363 19% 0.5
Ogden-Clearfield 1,747 1,901 37% (1,600) (0.8%) 7.0% $131,952 16% 0.3
Provo-Orem 1,616 1,907 29% (3,300) (1.9%) 7.3% $137,467 17% 0.2
Salt Lake City 2,010 3,897 31% (12,300) (2.0%) 7.0% $215,060 27% 4.4
St. George 818 841 22% (1,700) (3.5%) 9.0% $129,012 19% 0.2
Virginia
Charlottesville 642 715 27% (700) (0.7%) 5.9% $197,083 25% 0.0
Danville 90 130 25% (1,000) (2.5%) 11.7% $83,543 20% 0.5
Harrisonburg 371 396 30% 900 1.5% 6.7% $165,290 25% 0.2
Lynchburg 701 807 44% 500 0.5% 7.6% $133,271 22% 0.2
Richmond 2,812 3,609 32% (5,300) (0.9%) 7.6% $201,000 29% 3.8
Roanoke 491 511 27% (1,200) (0.8%) 7.4% $133,453 22% 0.0
Virginia Beach 3,257 4,956 21% (4,300) (0.6%) 7.3% $209,883 31% 4.6
Winchester 305 325 18% (600) (1.1%) 7.5% $134,111 20% 0.0
Washington
Bellingham 385 401 16% (2,300) (2.8%) 8.3% $197,810 37% 4.4
Bremerton 510 522 20% (800) (1.0%) 7.6% $250,000 36% 5.7
Kennewick 1,352 1,359 42% 2,700 2.8% 7.0% $186,644 32% 5.9
Longview 128 130 19% (600) (1.7%) 12.0% $125,723 24% 1.1
Mount Vernon 255 299 26% (2,200) (4.9%) 10.0% $178,900 30% 1.5
Olympia 1,141 1,308 41% 300 0.3% 7.7% $221,819 32% 5.8
Seattle (D) 4,529 6,353 23% (20,000) (1.4%) 8.1% $350,000 45% 6.2
Spokane 951 1,926 44% (5,100) (2.4%) 8.9% $163,362 30% 5.4
Tacoma (D) 1,535 1,940 28% (4,000) (1.5%) 9.6% $225,000 33% 5.2
Wenatchee 324 336 30% (100) (0.3%) 8.8% $177,237 33% 2.3
Yakima 455 537 44% 1,200 1.6% 9.1% $166,152 33% 5.3
West Virginia
Charleston 352 381 45% (600) (0.4%) 7.8% $122,941 27% 3.1
Huntington 118 203 32% (200) (0.2%) 8.3% $82,879 20% 0.7
Morgantown 32 89 34% 1,700 2.7% 5.7% $115,802 25% 0.3
Parkersburg 132 181 41% 700 1.0% 9.2% $83,963 18% 0.4
Wheeling 18 18 6% 100 0.1% 9.4% $73,488 17% 0.8
Wisconsin
Appleton 485 585 27% (700) (0.6%) 7.1% $127,327 20% 4.5
Eau Claire 358 444 31% 0 0.0% 6.4% $111,659 20% 2.6
Fond Du Lac 177 291 47% (600) (1.3%) 7.5% $113,792 19% 1.6
Green Bay 758 1,366 44% (1,000) (0.6%) 7.2% $137,240 23% 3.0
Janesville 217 263 21% (1,000) (1.6%) 10.4% $106,205 19% 2.0
La Crosse 256 272 32% (1,400) (1.9%) 5.8% $115,396 21% 2.3
Madison 897 1,657 27% (4,500) (1.3%) 5.5% $223,796 33% 5.4
Milwaukee 998 1,662 19% (17,200) (2.1%) 8.2% $217,231 36% 6.3
Oshkosh-Neenah 303 513 35% (100) (0.1%) 6.8% $108,736 18% 0.7
Racine 211 219 17% (2,100) (2.8%) 9.4% $133,225 22% 4.2
Sheboygan 77 153 21% (1,100) (1.8%) 8.1% $119,785 21% 3.1
Wausau 264 305 22% (1,400) (2.1%) 8.2% $111,433 18% 1.1
Wyoming
Casper 367 874 100% (1,300) (3.3%) 7.0% $112,286 19% 0.9
Cheyenne 234 452 52% (600) (1.3%) 7.0% $110,215 16% 0.3
0 0 0% 0 0.0% 0.0% $ 0% 0.0
* The government defines metro areas and includes metro divisions within some areas. In these instances, we report at the more detailed division level, because that is what most of our clients use for decision making. For example, we report on the Los Angeles and Orange County divisions separately, rather than the Los Angeles MSA, which includes both Los Angeles and Orange counties. We also use the more colloquial names used by business people, so we refer to the “Santa Ana-Anaheim-Irvine” division as “Orange County.” For the government definitions, visit: http://www.census.gov/population/www/metroareas/lists/2007/List1.txt

 


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