The Light: Opportunities Ahead | John Burns Real Estate Consulting

The Light: Opportunities Ahead

Every Friday, we will share two forward-thinking investment ideas. We are going to make this a separate email list going forward, so click here if you want to opt out.

Best geographic opportunities

Prior to the pandemic, our demographer showed that 62% of the household growth through 2025 was heading to the South (from Arizona through North Carolina), and we were expecting that to accelerate. We expect the migration shift to follow job availability and affordability, both of which are likely to continue to favor the South. The decennial census was supposed to take place April 1, 2020, and clearly was a mess. We are searching for other tools, such as our U-Haul index, to help understand migration patterns and will bring those to you as we see them. For now, look south.

Land prices to reset slowly

Last week, we interviewed more than 90 real estate professionals for local intelligence in more than 45 metro areas across the country. One common theme from our conversations is that all are working to “preserve liquidity,” which translates into delayed land purchases at best and, in many instances, no land purchases for the foreseeable future. Land generally has very little debt on it these days, so we expect distressed sales to be less than in past cycles. However, many land owners need cash to fund other needs, so we do expect some price capitulation. Our land feasibility team is using unique online tools to help our clients analyze the most undersupplied submarkets right now.

Our team has a wide breadth of strategic and restructuring advice in all real estate asset classes. Contact Lesley Deutch, Ken Perlman, or any of our team members to talk about how we can help you find your strategic advantage in this unprecedented time of uncertainty.

We will continue our weekly webinars for our research subscribers, who are going to help our firm through to the proverbial light at the end of the tunnel. Their willingness to share insights with us during these times is making us all smarter.

Lesley Deutch If you have any questions, please contact Lesley Deutch, Managing Principal, at (561) 998-5814 or by email.
Ken Perlman If you have any questions, please contact Ken Perlman, Managing Principal, at (858) 281-7214 or by email.