Kitchen & Bath Market Index | John Burns Real Estate Consulting

Kitchen & Bath Market Index (KBMI)


National Kitchen & Bath Association (NKBA) and John Burns Real Estate Consulting have partnered on the Kitchen and Bath Market Index (KBMI), a barometer of the business health of the industry

This quarterly industry index gauges the economic pulse of the kitchen and bath market, examining current conditions and future expectations in the industry. It also monitors issues and challenges industry professionals are facing in their businesses. The KBMI surveys and analyzes the sentiments of designers, manufacturers, retailers and building/construction firms who are members of the NKBA.

“As the leading trade association and advocate for the kitchen and bath industry, we continuously invest in research to provide guidance on performance, projections and challenges in the sector for our members and the market. We’re pleased to see that despite a softening in housing, the KBMI indicates positive growth and an optimistic sales outlook in the kitchen and bath sectors,” said Bill Darcy, NKBA CEO. “John Burns Real Estate Consulting is the preeminent research analysis partner in the housing space and we embarked on this joint venture to provide a reliable and frequent metric of industry performance and business health to our members and the market.”

“We are thrilled to partner with NKBA to monitor this important segment of the economy,” said Todd Tomalak, Senior Vice President of Research for John Burns Real Estate Consulting. “We view Kitchen & Bath as a critical gauge of discretionary consumer spending, and this new index will allow analysts to monitor the segment with more confidence than ever before.”

Quarterly Distribution (Q1 2020 Report Available for Download)

Fill out the form below to download the full Q1 2020 Kitchen and Bath Market Index (KBMI).



Coronavirus Dampens Outlook for Kitchen and Bath Industry

The industry has begun to contract in response to the COVID-19 pandemic. Our survey shows clear signs of slowing demand and declining optimism as current and future business conditions both rate below the prior four quarters.

Our Q1 2020 survey shows:

  • Declining sales growth. The kitchen and bath industry contracted in Q1 2020, as the KBMI rated a 41.0 on a scale of 0–100, with 50 being flat sales growth. Q1’s KBMI is more than 40% lower than last quarter’s rating of 69.8. The industry points to economic uncertainty, fear of recession, consumer confidence and stock market volatility as underlying challenges.

 

  • Future industry outlook is pessimistic. The industry is now considerably less positive on future conditions (19.8 index reading) than on current conditions (46.9 index reading), and 2020 sales growth expectations have weakened as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic and its related economic impacts.
    • The industry now expects -13.7% full-year sales decline in 2020, down notably from +10.8% expected growth reported by NKBA members as recently as Q4 2019.

 

  • The two biggest challenges and concerns of the industry are economic uncertainty and fear of recession. NKBA members now cite consumer confidence and stock market volatility as tied for the third biggest challenge. Concerns about repair and remodel demand are increasingly reported as the COVID-19 pandemic deters some U.S. consumers from undertaking major new projects.

 

  • The industry says the COVID-19 pandemic is having a significant impact across all market segments. COVID-19 related shutdowns and social distancing measures are expected to reduce Q2 2020 sales by more than 50% among builders, dealers and consumer-facing segments of the market, while manufacturing firms expect a still sizable 40% drop relative to pre-COVID sales expectations.

 

  • Across industry segments, NKBA members describe how the COVID-19 pandemic and related government-led shutdown measures are impacting their businesses.
    • Designers, citing broad impacts of the pandemic across their business activities, face the highest shares of cancelled/postponed projects and anticipate the steepest fall-off in 2020 sales. They tend to be more pessimistic on the timing of the recovery as well. More than half of design firms have closed their brick and mortar locations and 75% report lower demand for bids/proposals.
    • Building and construction companies report widespread project delays, postponements, and cancellations. Even so they are more optimistic than designers about resuming activity.
    • Retail sales companies say showroom closures and declining foot traffic are causing major declines to their sales and revenue for 2020. Many describe seeing declines in discretionary remodeling expenditures as a result of consumer uncertainty and fears related to the pandemic.
    • Manufacturers broadly cite layoffs and other COVID-related labor disruptions as reducing their production capacity. Nearly half reported facing order cancellations, yet other manufacturers still forecast significant increases in sales in certain categories.

 

  • Many industry members report supply chain disruptions, particularly for cabinetry sourced from manufacturers that closed due to COVID-related shutdowns, but also for appliance parts, vanities and light fixtures.

 

The Q1 2020 survey results include 651 responses from manufacturers, retailers, building and construction companies, and design firms who are members of the National Kitchen and Bath Association.

 

About NKBA and John Burns Real Estate Consulting

About the National Kitchen & Bath Association and the Kitchen & Bath Industry Show

The National Kitchen & Bath Association (NKBA) is the not-for-profit trade association that owns the Kitchen & Bath Industry Show® (KBIS), as part of Design & Construction Week® (DCW). With more than 10,000 member companies representing tens of thousands of members in all segments of the kitchen and bath industry, the NKBA has educated and led the industry since the association’s founding in 1963. The NKBA envisions a world where everyone enjoys safe, beautiful and functional kitchen and bath spaces. The mission of the NKBA is to inspire, lead and empower the kitchen and bath industry through the creations of certifications, marketplaces and networks. For more information, visit NKBA.org or call 1-800-THE-NKBA (843-6522).

KBIS® and NKBA® are registered trademarks of the National Kitchen & Bath Association.

 

About John Burns Real Estate Consulting

John Burns Real Estate Consulting is an independent research provider and consulting firm focused on the housing industry. John Burns founded the company in 2001 because he saw a need for better analysis on the housing market. The company has grown to a highly passionate team of research analysts and consultants in offices across the country, who work together to provide the most trusted source of US housing analysis. John Burns Real Estate Consulting’s research subscribers receive the most accurate analysis possible to inform their macro investment decisions, and the company’s consulting clients receive specific property and portfolio investment advice designed to maximize profits.


 


Sara Newton-Mahony If you have any questions about the KBMI or if you would like find out how John Burns Real Estate Consulting can help your business, please contact Sara Newton-Mahony, Director of Client Relations at (949) 870-1252 or at snewton@realestateconsulting.com.