Resale Home Prices Are Likely to Fall in Many Markets | John Burns Real Estate Consulting

Resale Home Prices Are Likely to Fall in Many Markets


We calculated how much prices would have to fall for housing costs (including mortgage payments, property taxes and down payments) to return to each market’s typical ratio of housing costs / income. We identified 10 markets where prices will have to fall 30% or more to return to its normal ratio, and another 31 markets that are clearly overpriced. The most likely scenario in these markets is that resale prices will fall, but not as much as we calculated, unless something terrible happens like mortgage rates spike or the economy enters a prolonged recession. Nonetheless, here are our calculations, with a commentary that follows:

Housing Cycle Current Required Price Change
Metro Area Barometer Price % $
Miami, FL 8.5 $350,000 -41.4% -$145,000
Riverside-San Bernardino, CA 9.3 $390,000 -41.0% -$160,000
Los Angeles, CA 9.8 $570,000 -39.5% -$225,000
Baltimore, MD 9.6 $284,858 -37.2% -$105,858
Orange County, CA 9.4 $720,000 -34.0% -$245,000
Washington D.C., DC-VA-MD-WV 8.8 $404,517 -33.3% -$134,517
Las Vegas, NV 7.4 $305,975 -33.0% -$100,975
Seattle, WA 10.0 $415,000 -31.9% -$132,500
Portland, OR-WA 9.4 $280,000 -31.4% -$88,000
Oakland, CA 8.8 $635,500 -30.0% -$190,500
Sacramento, CA 8.1 $375,000 -29.3% -$110,000
San Diego, CA 8.5 $565,000 -29.2% -$165,000
Orlando, FL 7.1 $245,000 -28.6% -$70,000
Phoenix, AZ 6.7 $263,000 -24.0% -$63,000
Baton Rouge, LA 6.2 $179,306 -22.5% -$40,306
Fort Myers, FL 6.5 $255,000 -22.4% -$57,000
Myrtle Beach, SC 6.4 $207,816 -20.6% -$42,816
Tucson, AZ 6.4 $230,000 -20.4% -$47,000
Boise City, ID 5.9 $213,498 -20.4% -$43,498
Virginia Beach, VA-NC 7.1 $235,034 -20.0% -$47,034
Tampa, FL 6.2 $190,000 -18.4% -$35,000
Minneapolis, MN-WI 6.2 $234,000 -15.0% -$35,000
New York, NY-NJ 7.1 $500,282 -13.0% -$65,282
Jacksonville, FL 5.7 $187,000 -11.2% -$21,000
Salt Lake City, UT 5.4 $233,013 -9.9% -$23,013
St. Louis, MO-IL 5.8 $166,250 -9.8% -$16,250
San Antonio, TX 5.3 $145,700 -9.4% -$13,700
Edison, NJ 6.4 $359,676 -8.5% -$30,676
Chicago, IL 5.9 $250,000 -8.0% -$20,000
Denver, CO 5.7 $237,950 -8.0% -$18,950
Austin, TX 5.3 $181,900 -6.5% -$11,900
Richmond, VA 5.4 $210,000 -6.2% -$13,000
Charleston, SC 5.2 $200,000 -5.0% -$10,000
Dallas, TX 5.2 $167,800 -4.6% -$7,800
Newark-Union, NJ-PA 5.5 $439,197 -4.4% -$19,197
Fort Worth, TX 5.2 $117,100 -4.4% -$5,100
Houston, TX 5.2 $148,700 -3.8% -$5,700
Nashville, TN 5.1 $155,000 -1.9% -$3,000
Kansas City, MO-KS 5.1 $154,485 -1.6% -$2,485
Birmingham, AL 5.1 $165,661 -1.6% -$2,661
Philadelphia, PA 5.1 $220,788 -1.3% -$2,788
McAllen, TX 5.0 $110,700 N/A N/A
Columbia, SC 4.7 $126,500 N/A N/A
Memphis, TN-MS-AR 4.0 $144,521 N/A N/A
Raleigh-Cary, NC 3.7 $189,000 N/A N/A
Atlanta, GA 3.7 $170,110 N/A N/A
Charlotte, NC-SC 3.0 $167,250 N/A N/A
Cincinnati, OH-KY-IN 1.4 $144,000 N/A N/A
Columbus, OH 1.2 $131,700 N/A N/A
Indianapolis, IN 0.8 $119,200 N/A N/A

Why So Many Markets: Many markets around the country have tremendous affordability problems that are primarily the residual effect of falling mortgage rates from 1999 through early 2004. Adjustable-rate loans fell from 7.0% to 3.4% during that time, which allowed home prices to double without increasing the mortgage payment.

Why So Much in Some Markets: The markets that have the worst affordability problems tend to be where speculative investor activity drove prices up 200% or more during this time period. Some speculators made a lot of money, and others are in the process of losing it all. Speculative investing is certainly a risky business.

Why So Little in Other Markets: The 9 markets that appear underpriced are largely concentrated in the Midwest, Carolinas and Georgia, where appreciation did not spin out of control during the upswing of this housing cycle. Poor economic conditions or few barriers to entry generally kept price appreciation down in these markets. These markets are just as impacted as the others by the rising mortgage rates since 2004 and the subprime market meltdown.

Attacking The Supply Constraint Myth: We agree that many “overpriced” markets become permanently more expensive every year because of their desirability as a place to live and their supply constraints, so it is unreasonable to suggest that they will return to their long-term housing cost ratios. Miami, Los Angeles, Orange County, Seattle and Portland would certainly be considered among these markets. This doesn’t mean these markets are insulated from corrections, however. Historically, supply-constrained markets such as Boston and New York have had very severe corrections during housing downturns. If these supply-constrained markets just return to the prices of early 2005, a steep correction is coming.

Attacking The Unprecedented Price Decline Myth: We agree that a 25% or more decline in resale home prices is unlikely, especially if interest rates don’t change much and the economy continues to grow. Helping matters is the fact that household incomes increase every year. However, a significant price correction is not entirely out of the question in the many markets where the following two statements are true:

  1. New home builders have already dropped prices (including incentives) 20% below where they would have been selling these homes two years ago, and
  2. A 20% decline in price would only be a return to the prices of early 2005.

Attacking the Demographic Myth: We fully understand how phenomenal the demographics are for homeownership. However, this is a long-term trend. Over the short-term, we moved more renters into homeownership than usual because of the low interest rates and easy mortgage qualifying. The chart of homeownership by age shows just how high homeownership is among younger households.

Conclusions for Builders: If you are a home builder, you know you are an incredible value in comparison to several years ago. Before resale prices drop, sell a lot of homes now.

Conclusions for Consumers: If you are hoping to buy a home soon, compare the value of new homes to resale homes. Home builders cannot afford to have their homes sit on the market for months like most homeowners can. Builders, and particularly the largest builders, have been aggressively improving the value of their homes to sell them. Reduced prices, along with 6-7% fixed mortgage rates, might be a buying opportunity you may never see again.

Methodology: To show where the problems are greatest, we reverse-engineered our Housing Cycle Barometer™ measure of affordability to estimate the magnitude that median resale prices would need to correct to return to historical median affordability levels. Our barometer compares each market’s current ratio of housing costs / income to its own history to determine whether a market is overpriced. It is also the only measure we know that includes a factor for down payments.

Permits Statistics
Employment Statistics
Affordability
12-
12-
Total
NF Payroll Employment
State
Metro Area
Month
S. Fam. Permits
Month
Total Permits
Permits / Peak Permits
1-Yr Growth
1-Yr Growth Rate
Unemp Rate
Median Home Price
Housing Costs / Income
Housing Cycle Barometer
Alabama
Anniston-Oxford 278 323 76.5% 500 1.0% 2.8% $93,815 23% 3.3
Auburn-Opelika 1,551 1,963 89.1% 1,300 2.4% 2.3% $151,451 41% 5.3
Birmingham 5,890 6,922 86.7% 7,100 1.3% 2.4% $165,482 35% 5.1
Decatur 333 333 35.3% 1,300 2.3% 2.6% $103,301 24% 3.2
Dothan 624 628 84.0% 1,000 1.6% 2.4% $99,909 26% 4.3
Florence 386 386 49.3% 2,200 3.9% 2.9% $104,384 27% 5.0
Gadsden 289 368 92.2% 0 0.0% 3.1% $94,628 24% 5.0
Huntsville 4,034 4,401 88.1% 4,300 2.1% 2.1% $129,878 25% 3.7
Mobile 2,149 2,761 99.4% 5,000 2.8% 2.8% $140,296 36% 6.2
Montgomery 1,460 1,466 56.3% 4,200 2.4% 2.7% $143,439 32% 5.3
Tuscaloosa 998 2,637 100.0% 2,100 2.2% 2.3% $133,708 33% 4.5
Alaska
Anchorage 550 1,375 15.3% 2,100 1.3% 5.4% $226,607 33% 5.2
Fairbanks 290 344 43.8% 200 0.5% 5.3% $173,380 28% 5.1
Arizona
Flagstaff 674 680 48.2% 500 0.8% 3.7% $274,512 53% 6.7
Phoenix 35,530 44,545 64.3% 78,400 4.2% 3.2% $263,000 41% 6.7
Prescott 2,145 2,262 50.5% 1,900 3.0% 3.7% $244,821 55% 6.0
Tucson 6,914 7,171 55.9% 14,200 3.7% 3.6% $228,200 43% 6.4
Yuma 1,232 1,245 46.1% 500 0.9% 13.0% $193,000 41% 5.9
Arkansas
Fayetteville 2,853 4,159 49.6% 4,800 2.3% 3.3% $130,120 24% 1.4
Fort Smith 750 1,006 76.5% 1,900 1.5% 4.8% $84,943 18% 0.4
Hot Springs 120 120 31.9% 700 1.8% 5.0% $126,420 29% 4.4
Jonesboro 476 613 62.3% 400 0.8% 4.7% $82,122 19% 0.3
Little Rock 3,493 3,780 65.8% 4,300 1.3% 4.1% $128,764 22% 3.0
Pine Bluff 76 84 20.3% (800) (2.0%) 6.9% $75,145 16% 0.7
California
Bakersfield 5,100 6,310 69.5% 8,000 3.5% 8.4% $245,000 46% 7.0
Chico 1,031 1,205 60.6% 2,200 2.9% 6.5% $267,500 60% 7.5
El Centro 1,553 1,901 77.1% 1,900 4.3% 16.3% $230,000 49% 6.3
Fresno 3,956 5,084 68.5% 5,600 1.9% 9.0% $270,000 52% 7.3
Hanford 743 842 62.3% 700 2.1% 9.1% $215,500 38% 7.2
Los Angeles 8,996 22,975 32.7% 48,200 1.2% 4.7% $570,000 94% 9.8
Madera 857 978 41.0% 1,900 5.5% 8.3% $263,000 47% 6.7
Merced 1,676 1,732 47.3% 2,100 3.6% 10.4% $292,000 52% 7.6
Modesto 1,870 2,098 33.1% 400 0.3% 9.0% $330,000 57% 8.4
Monterey 689 896 31.8% 2,000 1.6% 7.3% $600,000 87% 8.6
Napa 298 344 34.3% 2,400 3.9% 3.8% $575,000 79% 8.3
Oakland 4,889 9,642 41.9% 16,900 1.6% 4.4% $635,500 75% 8.8
Orange County 3,076 7,524 30.2% 15,800 1.0% 3.5% $720,000 82% 9.4
Redding 630 694 29.3% 1,200 1.9% 7.4% $265,000 55% 7.2
Riverside-San Bernardino 27,018 30,935 53.7% 44,600 3.5% 5.0% $390,000 65% 9.3
Sacramento 8,440 11,639 48.8% 25,100 2.8% 4.9% $375,000 57% 8.1
San Diego 4,283 8,785 19.9% 10,700 0.8% 4.1% $565,000 79% 8.5
San Francisco 837 3,305 49.0% 24,700 2.6% 3.8% $890,000 102% 9.8
San Jose 2,244 5,720 57.0% 24,800 2.8% 4.4% $800,000 80% 9.8
San Luis Obispo 1,118 1,505 41.8% 100 0.1% 4.0% $550,000 87% 8.5
Santa Barbara 530 812 29.8% 1,600 0.9% 4.0% $624,000 92% 8.4
Santa Cruz 488 670 47.4% 2,800 3.0% 6.5% $774,000 104% 9.5
Santa Rosa 1,272 1,994 34.3% 5,300 2.8% 4.1% $555,000 71% 8.0
Stockton 3,142 3,238 46.0% 3,600 1.8% 8.1% $379,000 70% 8.5
Vallejo-Fairfield 1,028 1,291 20.7% 3,300 2.6% 4.8% $425,000 51% 6.5
Ventura 1,168 1,838 24.5% 3,900 1.3% 4.3% $620,000 70% 8.3
Visalia-Porterville 2,790 3,273 91.2% 2,000 1.8% 9.5% $229,500 46% 6.9
Yuba-Sutter 1,391 1,504 49.4% 1,100 2.7% 10.3% $265,000 57% 7.8
Colorado
Boulder 354 587 11.4% 5,200 3.2% 2.9% $345,000 49% 7.5
Colorado Springs 3,528 3,805 34.5% 1,200 0.5% 3.7% $199,000 36% 6.1
Denver 10,807 16,158 56.6% 22,300 1.9% 3.5% $237,950 38% 5.7
Fort Collins 1,215 1,679 45.8% 2,200 1.7% 3.0% $213,620 36% 5.1
Grand Junction 1,399 1,499 73.3% 2,800 4.8% 2.8% $174,211 41% 6.0
Greeley 2,190 2,615 59.2% 3,000 3.8% 3.6% $169,900 40% 5.8
Pueblo 1,028 1,046 72.8% 1,500 2.6% 4.3% $105,468 27% 4.4
Connecticut
Bridgeport 1,415 1,868 35.5% 5,200 1.3% 3.6% $458,044 54% 2.7
Hartford 2,355 3,234 29.9% 5,200 0.9% 4.3% $256,165 36% 4.7
New Haven 1,014 1,512 20.6% 1,400 0.5% 4.4% $280,592 43% 4.9
Delaware
Dover 1,383 1,649 75.6% 500 0.8% 3.9% $208,526 40% 7.9
Wilmington 2,005 2,498 38.9% 2,600 0.7% 3.8% $243,355 35% 7.0
District of Columbia
Washington D.C. 14,389 20,331 53.5% 46,900 2.0% 2.9% $408,945 49% 8.8
Florida
Daytona Beach 2,344 3,191 40.2% 1,400 0.8% 3.3% $184,900 36% 6.0
Fort Lauderdale 3,171 6,017 30.9% 13,600 1.7% 2.9% $320,000 52% 7.4
Fort Myers 10,016 12,546 42.8% 6,800 2.9% 3.3% $255,000 43% 6.5
Fort Walton Beach 1,326 1,467 38.7% 900 1.0% 2.3% $233,849 35% 6.0
Gainesville 931 1,664 50.3% 2,800 2.1% 2.3% $212,282 45% 6.1
Jacksonville 9,039 14,698 58.6% 15,400 2.5% 3.1% $187,000 30% 5.7
Lakeland 4,855 5,382 36.4% 4,400 2.0% 3.3% $175,000 34% 6.1
Melbourne 2,954 3,525 35.6% (400) (0.2%) 3.6% $192,250 32% 5.9
Miami 4,885 14,901 57.0% 15,000 1.4% 3.2% $350,000 65% 8.5
Naples 1,948 3,715 45.5% 3,300 2.4% 2.7% $445,000 67% 7.8
Ocala 5,202 5,771 72.1% 2,800 2.7% 3.5% $161,750 37% 7.3
Orlando 19,054 27,183 75.2% 29,500 2.7% 3.1% $245,000 41% 7.1
Panama City 752 2,148 38.8% 1,800 2.3% 2.9% $203,339 37% 6.5
Pensacola 1,978 3,234 50.1% (300) (0.2%) 3.1% $165,261 30% 5.1
Port St. Lucie 3,731 4,400 40.8% 1,200 0.9% 4.0% $218,000 42% 7.6
Punta Gorda 2,279 3,058 57.1% 1,100 2.5% 3.9% $182,000 38% 6.9
Sarasota 3,850 4,674 32.2% 5,600 1.8% 3.1% $252,000 44% 8.1
Tallahassee 2,114 2,596 60.6% 2,200 1.2% 2.6% $186,203 35% 5.1
Tampa 13,109 17,596 46.4% 19,600 1.5% 3.3% $190,000 35% 6.2
Vero Beach 1,774 1,934 44.0% 300 0.6% 4.1% $206,000 40% 7.2
West Palm Beach 3,118 5,133 22.2% 12,600 2.1% 3.3% $320,000 51% 7.1
Georgia
Albany 585 695 55.2% 400 0.6% 4.8% $97,442 20% 0.6
Athens 1,468 2,307 97.9% 1,600 2.0% 3.3% $144,657 29% 0.6
Atlanta 47,378 61,721 82.2% 42,800 1.8% 4.0% $170,110 24% 3.7
Augusta 3,549 3,567 65.2% 3,700 1.7% 4.9% $119,770 22% 1.7
Brunswick 1,091 1,097 85.3% 900 2.0% 3.2% $161,046 30% 5.2
Columbus 1,456 2,219 98.8% 500 0.4% 4.7% $118,314 23% 1.7
Dalton 662 893 81.3% 200 0.2% 4.2% $116,544 21% 0.5
Gainesville 1,881 2,005 76.4% 2,000 2.8% 3.3% $156,457 26% 2.3
Hinesville 291 291 33.1% 100 0.5% 4.5% $135,655 23% 1.3
Macon 1,511 1,803 96.4% 400 0.4% 4.6% $104,532 20% 0.5
Rome 362 420 58.2% 1,100 2.5% 4.4% $104,772 19% 0.4
Savannah 4,181 4,959 100.0% 2,700 1.7% 3.4% $159,711 27% 5.1
Valdosta 1,235 1,367 93.5% 900 1.6% 3.3% $115,197 26% 2.1
Warner Robins 1,585 1,825 77.7% 1,700 3.1% 3.5% $106,784 17% 0.4
Hawaii
Honolulu 1,668 2,839 57.3% 6,200 1.4% 2.3% $626,141 75% 5.6
Idaho
Boise City 5,866 6,912 59.6% 11,600 4.3% 2.7% $215,421 36% 5.9
Coeur D’Alene 1,133 1,637 60.9% 1,600 2.9% 3.4% $206,478 39% 5.8
Idaho Falls 1,335 1,470 75.4% 1,400 2.8% 2.4% $122,706 19% 3.0
Lewiston 155 179 44.1% (200) (0.7%) 3.8% $150,805 31% 5.4
Pocatello 607 677 96.6% 200 0.5% 3.0% $116,563 22% 4.6
Illinois
Bloomington 567 759 44.7% 400 0.4% 3.4% $151,264 27% 2.0
Champaign-Urbana 932 2,294 94.4% 200 0.2% 3.7% $142,316 32% 5.5
Chicago 19,062 35,963 77.2% 33,700 0.9% 4.7% $250,000 39% 5.9
Danville 39 39 20.2% (100) (0.3%) 5.6% $61,291 14% 0.8
Decatur 319 405 68.1% 700 1.3% 5.2% $90,100 19% 3.6
Kankakee-Bradley 476 516 62.4% 500 1.2% 6.1% $133,531 26% 7.7
Lake-Kenosha 2,684 2,983 46.1% 2,400 0.6% 4.7% $275,532 37% 6.0
Peoria 1,126 1,459 75.3% 2,300 1.3% 4.0% $109,705 20% 4.5
Rockford 1,678 1,829 69.7% 2,800 1.8% 5.5% $123,174 24% 6.9
Springfield 536 752 48.5% 200 0.2% 4.1% $96,006 19% 1.6
Indiana
Anderson 301 303 39.1% (1,700) (3.9%) 6.5% $89,931 18% 2.7
Bloomington 673 761 62.4% 1,200 1.5% 4.1% $131,577 30% 5.1
Columbus 265 265 43.3% 1,200 2.7% 3.7% $122,250 23% 4.5
Elkhart-Goshen 794 828 50.0% (2,900) (2.2%) 4.5% $116,032 22% 4.1
Evansville 1,102 1,418 65.1% 1,100 0.6% 4.7% $100,377 20% 4.1
Fort Wayne 1,299 1,408 38.2% 1,300 0.6% 4.8% $102,863 21% 4.7
Gary 2,843 3,404 73.6% 2,200 0.8% 5.0% $124,218 24% 5.0
Indianapolis 8,176 9,628 56.0% 11,500 1.3% 4.1% $119,200 21% 0.8
Kokomo 146 172 23.2% 0 0.0% 6.2% $93,729 19% 3.6
Lafayette 680 836 45.7% 600 0.6% 4.1% $116,903 25% 2.2
Michigan City 345 352 59.2% 400 0.9% 5.4% $119,921 24% 5.7
Muncie 117 169 29.6% (700) (1.3%) 5.4% $86,965 21% 3.5
South Bend 719 1,235 62.2% 1,200 0.8% 5.0% $91,286 18% 1.1
Terre Haute 291 466 67.9% 1,000 1.3% 5.7% $86,555 20% 3.8
Iowa
Ames 254 425 44.9% 100 0.2% 2.4% $134,463 24% 0.3
Cedar Rapids 887 1,173 57.1% 1,600 1.2% 3.4% $129,726 22% 3.2
Davenport 769 979 64.3% 600 0.3% 3.9% $122,049 22% 5.4
Des Moines 3,503 4,813 76.4% 5,200 1.7% 3.1% $144,712 24% 4.0
Dubuque 349 378 43.3% 2,700 4.9% 3.6% $120,107 23% 3.9
Iowa City 722 967 57.0% 3,200 3.6% 2.3% $159,235 30% 2.6
Sioux City 251 293 24.8% 800 1.1% 3.8% $88,844 17% 0.6
Waterloo 483 584 69.5% (600) (0.7%) 3.3% $104,688 19% 4.8
Kansas
Lawrence 398 524 27.7% 1,700 3.3% 3.5% $157,767 30% 5.0
Topeka 719 959 69.6% 2,200 2.0% 4.3% $104,230 19% 3.5
Wichita 2,675 3,335 72.9% 12,800 4.4% 4.0% $116,619 20% 3.7
Kentucky
Bowling Green 709 869 62.7% 1,800 3.0% 4.3% $117,683 26% 1.9
Elizabethtown 805 1,105 83.4% (200) (0.4%) 4.9% $117,176 23% 2.3
Lexington 2,834 3,319 64.8% 5,000 2.0% 4.0% $148,575 29% 5.0
Louisville 5,127 6,444 72.1% 9,900 1.6% 4.8% $139,806 27% 5.2
Owensboro 299 325 29.7% 100 0.2% 4.7% $89,227 20% 0.4
Louisiana
Alexandria 811 811 85.3% 1,300 2.0% 3.5% $97,104 25% 4.6
Baton Rouge 6,204 8,067 89.0% 6,000 1.7% 3.5% $178,974 38% 6.2
Houma 703 787 61.5% 5,800 6.6% 2.5% $113,966 24% 5.1
Lafayette 1,900 2,359 46.1% 3,200 2.2% 2.5% $132,894 29% 5.0
Lake Charles 622 691 46.0% 2,000 2.2% 3.5% $110,921 25% 5.1
Monroe 778 989 82.0% 1,200 1.5% 4.3% $100,663 25% 4.0
New Orleans 4,888 6,145 46.2% 29,100 6.1% 3.8% $162,271 36% 5.3
Shreveport 1,552 1,594 52.0% 3,200 1.8% 4.0% $135,594 31% 5.2
Maine
Bangor 528 608 61.0% (900) (1.4%) 4.6% $130,101 27% 4.0
Lewiston-Auburn 277 289 33.7% 800 1.7% 4.5% $141,451 29% 3.4
Portland 2,514 2,918 50.8% 800 0.4% 3.3% $245,382 42% 5.0
Maryland
Baltimore 5,224 7,116 36.4% 6,200 0.5% 3.6% $285,544 41% 9.6
Bethesda 2,379 4,095 33.5% 6,700 1.2% 2.5% $465,000 48% 8.6
Cumberland 220 220 54.1% 500 1.3% 4.9% $107,541 25% 5.0
Hagerstown 2,009 2,305 55.7% 1,500 1.5% 4.2% $209,482 37% 6.7
Salisbury 737 1,256 96.8% 400 0.7% 4.1% $175,617 35% 5.9
Massachusetts
Barnstable Town 734 871 17.6% (200) (0.2%) 4.7% $362,163 53% 3.3
Boston 1,757 5,468 51.7% 30,300 1.8% 3.7% $404,809 49% 6.1
Cambridge 1,632 3,597 48.0% 28,400 1.2% 4.0% $426,871 45% 4.4
Pittsfield 312 312 33.8% 600 1.7% 4.7% $225,245 37% 4.3
Michigan
Ann Arbor 542 659 22.7% (200) (0.1%) 4.5% $209,060 32% 5.0
Battle Creek 177 200 32.1% (800) (1.3%) 6.8% $96,650 21% 5.3
Bay City 223 223 49.4% (600) (1.6%) 7.0% $101,935 22% 5.6
Detroit 1,628 1,759 27.8% (13,500) (1.7%) 7.5% $101,430 20% 1.4
Flint 753 908 26.3% (3,100) (2.0%) 8.1% $108,381 23% 5.2
Grand Rapids 2,117 2,581 51.2% 2,200 0.6% 5.8% $132,550 24% 4.3
Holland 1,106 1,249 45.5% (400) (0.3%) 5.3% $155,282 26% 5.1
Jackson 465 588 58.4% (800) (1.3%) 7.5% $114,696 23% 5.5
Kalamazoo 905 1,242 50.4% (800) (0.5%) 5.5% $125,474 24% 3.9
Lansing 796 1,057 33.5% (300) (0.1%) 5.6% $135,906 26% 5.2
Monroe 465 579 48.2% (2,400) (5.2%) 6.0% $154,192 27% 5.8
Muskegon 391 448 45.2% (1,300) (2.0%) 6.9% $100,161 22% 4.7
Niles 577 630 77.2% (400) (0.6%) 6.7% $124,383 26% 7.0
Saginaw 178 197 20.3% (400) (0.4%) 7.1% $117,365 26% 7.0
Warren 4,764 5,503 27.8% (19,100) (1.6%) 6.2% $178,863 26% 2.8
Minnesota
Duluth 919 1,124 65.5% 1,500 1.1% 5.8% $118,302 24% 8.3
Minneapolis 10,367 14,051 49.9% 23,200 1.3% 4.2% $234,000 33% 6.2
Rochester 737 854 42.4% 2,300 2.2% 4.0% $141,634 21% 3.9
St. Cloud 942 1,133 56.2% 2,300 2.3% 5.0% $147,015 27% 5.3
Mississippi
Gulfport-Biloxi 3,486 4,743 100.0% 10,500 10.9% 6.4% $154,527 39% 7.5
Hattiesburg 326 834 92.3% 800 1.3% 5.0% $104,795 30% 5.2
Jackson 3,396 3,714 82.4% 3,900 1.5% 5.3% $146,416 35% 5.9
Pascagoula 1,136 1,362 88.4% (600) (1.1%) 6.5% $120,158 28% 7.4
Missouri
Columbia 742 983 33.3% 1,300 1.4% 2.9% $138,010 30% 5.0
Jefferson City 333 401 34.9% 800 1.0% 3.4% $111,668 21% 4.4
Joplin 381 467 62.9% 800 1.0% 3.8% $89,231 24% 5.0
Kansas City 7,505 11,093 60.2% 15,100 1.5% 4.5% $154,547 26% 5.1
Springfield 2,712 4,506 88.1% 4,200 2.1% 3.3% $125,288 30% 5.0
St. Joseph 174 217 50.7% 2,700 4.8% 3.9% $93,675 21% 5.0
St. Louis 9,328 11,641 63.5% 16,700 1.2% 4.5% $166,250 30% 5.8
Montana
Billings 680 721 49.2% 1,900 2.5% 1.7% $140,689 27% 3.8
Great Falls 340 399 100.0% 1,200 3.5% 2.2% $116,045 24% 2.4
Missoula 463 624 55.4% 1,800 3.2% 2.1% $209,710 39% 5.1
Nebraska
Lincoln 1,020 1,226 45.3% 1,700 1.0% 2.5% $138,687 22% 3.3
Omaha 3,895 5,199 78.4% 9,300 2.0% 3.0% $138,426 21% 2.9
Nevada
Carson City 115 180 25.3% 200 0.6% 5.1% $255,809 43% 5.7
Las Vegas 17,485 25,448 58.1% 26,200 2.9% 4.3% $305,975 50% 7.4
Reno 2,673 2,838 44.8% 5,200 2.3% 4.3% $308,250 50% 6.9
New Hampshire
Manchester 893 1,163 16.3% 100 0.1% 4.0% $215,990 29% 4.3
New Jersey
Atlantic City 1,385 1,574 39.6% (3,500) (2.3%) 5.8% $277,079 43% 7.1
Camden 2,684 4,843 57.3% 8,000 1.5% 4.1% $231,120 27% 4.1
Edison 4,712 7,541 30.9% 8,600 0.8% 3.7% $367,442 39% 6.4
Newark-Union 3,330 7,480 81.0% 600 0.1% 4.2% $442,211 48% 5.5
Ocean City 590 1,146 47.1% 100 0.3% 7.4% $286,476 42% 5.0
Trenton 505 787 21.6% 4,200 1.7% 3.5% $314,454 33% 5.3
Vineland 712 828 100.0% (400) (0.6%) 6.3% $164,509 26% 4.3
New Mexico
Albuquerque 4,598 5,318 59.9% 7,700 2.0% 3.3% $199,444 38% 5.3
Farmington 419 427 72.7% 1,000 2.0% 3.2% $192,001 42% 6.4
Las Cruces 1,900 2,131 81.8% 1,300 1.9% 4.1% $130,508 31% 4.3
Santa Fe 369 369 28.6% 1,300 2.1% 2.9% $282,962 48% 5.1
New York
Albany 1,787 2,875 53.9% (900) (0.2%) 3.6% $200,219 32% 5.0
Binghamton 277 277 21.1% 100 0.1% 4.2% $99,408 20% 2.0
Buffalo 1,460 2,212 47.6% 2,000 0.4% 4.5% $98,910 18% 0.4
Elmira 66 85 28.7% (300) (0.7%) 4.4% $81,761 17% 0.8
Glens Falls 515 665 41.2% 600 1.1% 4.4% $168,754 31% 4.9
Ithaca 160 347 52.7% (300) (0.5%) 2.8% $153,900 29% 2.5
Kingston 482 583 41.3% 1,200 1.8% 3.4% $240,888 40% 5.1
Nassau 3,100 3,457 30.1% 10,200 0.8% 3.2% $469,392 49% 8.7
New York 3,209 39,685 92.8% 50,700 1.0% 4.1% $505,437 78% 7.1
Poughkeepsie 1,728 2,189 42.5% 1,900 0.7% 3.5% $268,261 37% 4.2
Rochester 1,933 2,255 43.7% 800 0.2% 4.1% $113,312 18% 0.9
Syracuse 1,267 1,588 46.2% 1,700 0.5% 4.1% $117,591 21% 2.3
Utica-Rome 490 562 42.4% 100 0.1% 4.1% $104,011 21% 1.8
North Carolina
Asheville 3,728 4,472 100.0% 2,200 1.3% 3.4% $183,708 40% 5.9
Burlington 1,693 1,753 86.5% 600 1.0% 4.8% $119,715 25% 0.3
Charlotte 19,452 23,892 95.0% 19,300 2.4% 4.4% $167,250 27% 3.0
Durham 3,144 3,592 55.1% 10,400 3.8% 3.6% $171,602 30% 4.3
Fayetteville 2,956 3,666 84.8% 2,200 1.7% 5.0% $114,512 20% 0.4
Goldsboro 502 508 73.6% 600 1.4% 4.3% $106,385 22% 0.6
Greensboro 4,354 6,075 93.2% 4,700 1.3% 4.5% $151,262 29% 1.5
Greenville 1,503 2,370 92.0% 3,400 4.7% 4.9% $112,805 24% 0.4
Hickory 1,538 1,638 67.4% (1,000) (0.6%) 5.8% $114,867 24% 2.1
Jacksonville 1,568 1,842 90.1% 2,000 4.6% 4.1% $135,755 26% 3.5
Raleigh-Cary 13,144 16,909 95.5% 12,300 2.5% 3.4% $189,000 29% 3.7
Rocky Mount 686 689 66.9% 1,200 1.9% 6.0% $100,509 20% 0.5
Wilmington 5,569 6,493 70.5% 5,700 4.1% 3.5% $221,723 43% 6.5
Winston-Salem 3,784 4,017 90.5% 2,600 1.2% 4.1% $131,468 24% 0.5
North Dakota
Bismarck 689 990 90.4% 1,300 2.2% 3.0% $133,336 21% 3.3
Fargo 1,247 1,887 66.9% 2,600 2.3% 3.1% $137,742 25% 4.4
Grand Forks 228 543 80.6% 1,100 2.1% 3.8% $125,466 26% 4.6
Ohio
Akron 1,574 1,975 49.2% 4,000 1.2% 5.5% $126,000 22% 2.9
Canton 835 899 57.8% (700) (0.4%) 6.0% $110,096 22% 1.2
Cincinnati 6,661 8,283 53.2% 3,400 0.3% 4.9% $144,000 24% 1.4
Cleveland 4,069 4,725 59.1% (4,100) (0.4%) 5.4% $133,129 24% 0.5
Columbus 4,850 7,088 41.4% 4,600 0.5% 4.8% $131,700 22% 1.2
Dayton 1,679 1,989 47.8% (3,200) (0.8%) 5.7% $124,616 22% 2.8
Lima 151 157 31.1% (1,200) (2.1%) 6.2% $100,779 20% 3.6
Mansfield 188 219 36.4% (500) (0.9%) 6.6% $102,481 20% 2.6
Sandusky 86 110 19.4% 0 0.0% 6.1% $134,467 23% 4.0
Springfield 219 295 43.0% (600) (1.1%) 6.0% $102,024 20% 1.7
Toledo 1,447 1,681 40.7% 600 0.2% 6.0% $105,086 20% 0.8
Youngstown 729 870 45.8% (4,800) (2.0%) 6.2% $80,378 17% 0.5
Oklahoma
Lawton 288 916 83.7% 0 0.0% 4.2% $102,571 21% 2.5
Oklahoma City 6,255 6,585 30.4% 13,500 2.4% 3.8% $127,737 25% 5.4
Tulsa 4,552 5,074 41.6% 6,800 1.6% 3.6% $131,129 27% 5.1
Oregon
Bend 2,524 2,704 60.6% 2,600 3.8% 4.6% $291,647 54% 9.6
Corvallis 269 313 39.4% 1,000 2.6% 4.0% $239,103 41% 5.5
Eugene 1,228 1,521 54.9% 1,200 0.8% 5.3% $234,756 49% 8.4
Medford 1,061 1,325 62.0% 1,900 2.3% 5.6% $242,848 49% 6.3
Portland 9,596 15,398 77.8% 18,800 1.9% 4.8% $280,000 46% 9.4
Salem 1,613 2,122 62.9% 3,100 2.1% 5.6% $232,828 44% 7.1
Pennsylvania
Allentown 3,484 3,730 69.0% 6,200 1.8% 3.9% $255,563 39% 7.6
Altoona 180 185 37.3% 700 1.1% 3.6% $93,846 20% 2.4
Erie 727 848 83.4% 400 0.3% 4.2% $104,778 20% 1.2
Harrisburg 1,716 1,844 49.5% 5,300 1.6% 3.1% $149,661 24% 3.6
Johnstown 175 232 62.2% 400 0.6% 4.6% $82,226 19% 1.8
Lancaster 1,571 1,711 47.3% 2,100 0.9% 2.9% $173,122 27% 4.0
Lebanon 551 553 65.4% 200 0.4% 2.9% $140,253 25% 4.5
Philadelphia 6,404 9,107 51.1% 13,700 0.7% 3.8% $222,474 31% 5.1
Pittsburgh 4,111 5,605 79.2% 4,500 0.4% 3.8% $117,149 21% 0.5
Reading 1,009 1,092 50.0% 1,500 0.9% 3.6% $146,705 24% 4.9
Scranton 1,184 1,328 61.0% 1,700 0.7% 4.4% $123,412 25% 3.7
State College 516 534 48.4% (100) (0.1%) 2.9% $160,136 31% 3.5
Williamsport 250 262 49.2% 300 0.6% 4.4% $113,200 22% 1.7
York 2,363 2,742 81.0% 3,300 1.8% 3.2% $170,101 28% 4.3
Rhode Island
Providence 2,699 3,621 30.8% (700) (0.1%) 5.0% $279,888 45% 6.0
South Carolina
Anderson 1,292 1,670 86.5% 100 0.2% 5.7% $107,880 23% 3.6
Charleston 6,411 7,768 71.1% 7,200 2.5% 4.1% $200,000 37% 5.2
Columbia 6,252 7,934 97.7% 3,800 1.1% 4.7% $126,500 24% 4.7
Florence 896 896 68.3% 900 1.0% 6.1% $103,249 23% 3.3
Greenville 4,889 5,579 100.0% 4,100 1.3% 4.8% $127,500 26% 5.2
Myrtle Beach 5,573 7,912 61.8% 7,600 6.1% 4.2% $207,415 46% 6.4
Spartanburg 1,997 1,997 72.3% (1,500) (1.2%) 5.5% $122,926 26% 5.4
Sumter 716 1,062 100.0% (200) (0.5%) 6.8% $105,312 24% 3.3
South Dakota
Rapid City 726 876 63.7% 1,400 2.4% 3.1% $128,872 24% 5.0
Sioux Falls 1,640 2,294 91.0% 4,400 3.4% 2.8% $137,747 23% 2.5
Tennessee
Chattanooga 2,810 3,226 84.3% 3,000 1.2% 3.6% $136,605 28% 4.3
Clarksville 2,151 3,372 100.0% 900 1.1% 4.5% $104,293 21% 1.4
Cleveland 729 796 84.2% (600) (1.4%) 4.0% $119,003 27% 4.5
Jackson 539 681 60.9% 1,100 1.8% 4.5% $100,988 22% 0.6
Johnson City 1,195 1,320 91.7% 1,400 1.7% 4.0% $119,279 30% 3.6
Kingsport 1,078 1,119 69.3% 700 0.6% 3.9% $118,025 28% 5.0
Knoxville 5,206 5,891 91.3% 4,900 1.5% 3.2% $156,311 33% 5.3
Memphis 7,912 10,126 90.2% 8,600 1.4% 4.6% $144,521 29% 4.0
Morristown 635 646 84.4% (100) (0.2%) 4.2% $112,643 29% 4.9
Nashville 13,458 15,033 81.8% 11,100 1.5% 3.4% $155,000 27% 5.1
Texas
Abilene 353 381 17.8% 1,400 2.1% 3.3% $89,100 21% 4.4
Amarillo 667 1,139 30.7% 1,700 1.5% 3.2% $118,400 27% 5.4
Austin 15,284 22,043 83.1% 31,700 4.4% 3.2% $181,900 33% 5.3
Beaumont 1,064 2,127 85.5% 3,200 2.0% 4.8% $117,800 25% 5.3
Brownsville 2,358 2,465 61.3% 1,400 1.2% 5.5% $110,000 33% 5.6
College Station 838 1,985 56.0% 500 0.5% 3.2% $147,900 37% 5.4
Corpus Christi 1,866 2,182 35.5% 4,100 2.4% 4.0% $134,100 28% 5.3
Dallas 24,662 33,720 45.6% 70,500 3.5% 3.9% $167,800 28% 5.2
El Paso 3,756 4,493 69.4% 4,000 1.5% 5.6% $128,100 31% 5.1
Fort Worth 13,425 18,309 47.5% 21,900 2.6% 3.9% $117,100 21% 5.2
Houston 53,115 70,527 93.9% 84,900 3.5% 3.8% $148,700 26% 5.2
Killeen 2,643 3,903 84.8% 1,700 1.4% 4.2% $114,986 23% 4.5
Laredo 1,752 2,214 89.0% 3,200 3.8% 4.4% $98,350 26% 1.6
Longview 333 623 39.3% 1,300 1.4% 3.6% $116,800 25% 5.1
Lubbock 1,147 1,426 34.2% 4,600 3.6% 3.1% $100,300 24% 3.3
McAllen 6,249 7,185 77.1% 5,400 2.7% 6.1% $110,700 35% 5.0
Midland 497 497 12.8% 2,800 4.5% 2.7% $122,829 24% 5.3
Odessa 238 238 11.3% 2,600 4.6% 3.0% $131,700 31% 5.9
San Angelo 362 482 31.2% 500 1.1% 3.3% $100,000 23% 5.0
San Antonio 12,443 17,354 73.8% 20,200 2.5% 3.6% $145,700 29% 5.3
Sherman 279 369 33.9% 1,200 2.7% 4.0% $95,800 21% 5.0
Texarkana 198 227 26.9% 0 0.0% 4.5% $83,409 19% 0.6
Tyler 504 596 20.2% 1,200 1.3% 3.8% $132,200 28% 5.1
Victoria 206 206 11.5% 1,600 3.2% 3.3% $106,700 21% 3.7
Waco 965 1,060 35.5% 2,300 2.2% 3.8% $113,200 26% 3.6
Wichita Falls 290 390 43.5% 600 1.0% 3.7% $102,000 22% 5.1
Utah
Logan 889 1,030 73.4% 1,600 3.1% 1.9% $140,588 25% 0.9
Ogden-Clearfield 4,187 4,473 87.1% 6,000 3.1% 2.5% $167,217 24% 2.4
Provo-Orem 5,344 6,308 97.2% 10,400 5.8% 2.2% $195,908 32% 4.3
Salt Lake City 5,940 7,448 60.0% 27,800 4.6% 2.4% $232,656 32% 5.4
St. George 1,968 2,108 54.8% 2,700 5.2% 2.4% $229,489 45% 5.2
Virginia
Charlottesville 1,232 1,629 61.8% 2,300 2.3% 2.3% $250,959 44% 6.3
Danville 245 268 51.2% 400 1.0% 5.9% $92,615 22% 1.3
Harrisonburg 765 785 63.5% 2,700 4.3% 2.5% $196,119 39% 6.0
Lynchburg 1,755 1,779 93.9% 1,800 1.7% 3.2% $146,343 31% 5.3
Richmond 6,648 7,235 63.4% 13,400 2.2% 2.9% $210,000 34% 5.4
Roanoke 1,012 1,061 55.0% 3,000 1.9% 3.0% $152,309 29% 5.3
Virginia Beach 5,305 7,335 30.9% 9,200 1.2% 3.0% $237,770 39% 7.1
Winchester 1,190 1,208 67.8% 1,800 3.1% 3.0% $216,374 41% 5.5
Washington
Bellingham 1,163 1,607 62.9% 3,600 4.4% 4.0% $268,822 50% 6.6
Bremerton 1,279 1,327 51.4% 0 0.0% 4.2% $289,028 44% 7.3
Kennewick 1,548 1,558 47.7% 2,400 2.8% 5.1% $152,969 26% 4.7
Longview 626 721 100.0% 1,100 3.0% 5.9% $182,199 35% 6.2
Mount Vernon 861 963 84.0% 900 1.9% 4.6% $253,183 46% 6.9
Olympia 2,310 3,145 98.2% 2,200 2.2% 4.2% $249,950 39% 8.2
Seattle 10,204 20,793 75.1% 45,200 3.2% 3.6% $415,000 59% 10.0
Spokane 2,379 3,571 81.2% 6,200 2.9% 4.3% $190,298 39% 7.6
Tacoma 4,593 5,812 82.1% 4,500 1.7% 4.7% $275,000 46% 8.8
Wenatchee 905 1,087 100.0% 1,100 2.9% 5.0% $222,272 43% 5.9
Yakima 646 685 72.9% 3,200 4.1% 6.0% $151,020 32% 5.2
West Virginia
Charleston 480 649 76.8% 1,000 0.7% 4.2% $116,866 23% 0.4
Huntington 354 661 100.0% 2,300 1.9% 4.7% $91,953 22% 0.8
Morgantown 152 161 97.6% 2,600 4.4% 3.2% $135,563 29% 1.1
Parkersburg 252 264 60.3% 1,000 1.4% 4.9% $95,088 21% 0.5
Weirton 66 66 35.3% 700 1.5% 6.1% $84,422 18% 2.5
Wheeling 49 73 25.0% 400 0.6% 5.2% $85,345 19% 0.7
Wisconsin
Appleton 729 843 38.7% 3,300 2.8% 4.9% $130,470 23% 5.4
Eau Claire 569 693 48.7% 1,000 1.2% 5.2% $122,042 28% 6.4
Fond Du Lac 278 328 47.0% (700) (1.4%) 4.9% $128,898 25% 6.0
Green Bay 1,468 1,994 64.1% (200) (0.1%) 5.3% $149,147 29% 6.0
Janesville 652 833 65.0% (1,500) (2.1%) 5.5% $128,356 27% 6.9
La Crosse 420 634 74.8% 300 0.4% 4.2% $128,613 28% 6.0
Madison 1,629 3,057 50.0% 700 0.2% 3.7% $224,835 40% 7.1
Milwaukee 2,320 3,997 46.6% 6,400 0.8% 5.3% $214,808 41% 7.9
Oshkosh-Neenah 445 734 50.3% (900) (1.0%) 5.0% $127,027 25% 5.7
Racine 447 535 41.9% 800 1.0% 6.7% $159,623 30% 7.0
Sheboygan 238 444 60.6% 200 0.3% 4.3% $139,355 26% 5.8
Wausau 446 639 45.8% 1,200 1.7% 4.6% $123,380 23% 5.6
Wyoming
Casper 451 451 56.7% 800 2.1% 2.7% $139,523 28% 5.3
Cheyenne 394 396 45.2% 1,000 2.3% 3.8% $141,067 25% 2.8

 


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