Building Market Intelligence

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A Focused Strategy for 2011

Those of you who have been following this e-mail for a while are noticing that many of the grades below have shifted from D’s and F’s to B’s and C’s. That is because the economy is starting to reach its …

Shadow Lot Supply

What happened to 1.3 million lots? In the last 4 years, the public builders have reduced their land holdings from 2.2 million to 700K lots, and only built on about 200K of them during that time period. What happened to …

Where Are All the Bad Bank Loans?

You are not going to believe this one! With home prices down 29% from the peak, commercial real estate values down 43% from the peak, residential construction volumes down 77%, commercial construction volumes down 39%, and builders and developers all …

Dissecting Price Correction Market by Market

We are often asked to make a call on how much further home prices have to correct. To do that, we study over 30 data elements on each market, talk to our clients in each market, and rely on qualitative …

Watch Out for Washington!!!

Elected and appointed government officials have a tremendous track record of making a huge difference in housing, both positive and negative, as evidenced by the timeline below. The series of policies that started with the 1992 GSE Act and culminated …

4 Tips for Strategic Planning

Now that we have the mid-term elections behind us, it’s time to clear out the noise and focus on the real issues that will affect your future housing and land strategy. Here are 4 points for strategic perspective that should …

10K Consumers Tell Us What They Want in Home and Community Today

We teamed with 24 national builder/developers and a national Realtor group to complete the most comprehensive home buying consumer survey we know about. In total, 9,694 potential home buyers from 43 states took our 54 question survey. The findings are …

Stability in Seattle?

Seattle is starting to show some signs of recovery. JT Schwartz and I recently visited nearly 50 residential projects, including regional master planned communities like Issaquah Highlands and Snoqualmie Ridge, as well as stand-alone projects in Southeast King County. Here …

Planning for the Future

Our builder clients have found that home buyers have changed dramatically, from the person desiring the largest, most highly decorated home they can afford to a value-oriented, patient buyer. Clearly, this is just a generalization because it’s a function of …

Shadow Inventory Stepping into the Light

The Loan Modification programs were certainly successful in delaying the inevitable – foreclosure. As shown in the chart below, there are now approximately 2.5 million foreclosures in process, and another 2.5 million mortgages that are 90+ days delinquent. These numbers …