Building Market Intelligence

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Thank You, Uncle Sam

Several months ago, we told our clients we thought we were entering a “W” shaped recovery, with the “first leg up” in the W driven by four things: Tremendous affordability for those who are currently paying rent, The $8,000 federal …

Thriving Condo Sales

It sounds like a home builder’s fantasy, but we found this real-life scenario in Torrance, California: a project that’s been selling an average of 4 homes a week with 40% of its buyers paying in cash and many others coming …

Florida’s Construction Industry is on Life Support

Florida’s construction market has virtually shut down. We have been valuing properties throughout the state all year and, while we are seeing some modest improvement in sales velocity, there is virtually no new construction. Year-to-date through May, the state has …

Has Housing Construction Really Bottomed?

While the Census Bureau reported last week that housing starts surged month-over-month, these headline-grabbing numbers are the seasonally adjusted data, which can fluctuate wildly. They often create great headlines because of the significant changes each month. A better way to …

Policy Makers, CEOs and Investors Beware

Recent reports of price appreciation are comparing apples and oranges. We are extremely concerned that policy makers, banking and real estate industry executives, investors and others will use misleading home price data to conclude that home prices have stabilized. They …

Submarket Analysis Helps With Great Decisions

We believe there will be a flood of investment opportunities over the next few years. To distinguish a diamond in the rough from Fool’s Gold, it is important to get smart about which submarkets will emerge first – and strongest …

Affordability Sells Homes

An ad is helping one Texas builder called LGI Homes capture 20 to 30 combined sales per week from 3 communities. The people selling homes for this builder know how to speak the language of their buyers. In this case, money …

Single-Family Construction Temporarily Bottoming Out

While the continued decline in total housing construction is getting all the headlines, seasonally adjusted single-family construction activity was up slightly month-over-month. This is consistent with the findings of our monthly survey of builders, who report a slight increase in …

Florida and California are Night and Day

California’s excess resale supply (homes for sale) is starting to come back in balance, while Florida’s supply is completely out of whack. At 10.2 months of supply, the U.S. still has 42% more inventory than normal, but supply is nearing …

Introducing the Housing Cycle GPA – A Leading Indicator for Housing

In our quest to be the first to properly call a bottom in this housing cycle, we have developed a tool called the Housing Cycle GPA. Our analysis has shown that the health of the market fundamentals (demand, supply and …