Building Market Intelligence

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Policy Makers, CEOs and Investors Beware

Recent reports of price appreciation are comparing apples and oranges. We are extremely concerned that policy makers, banking and real estate industry executives, investors and others will use misleading home price data to conclude that home prices have stabilized. They …

Submarket Analysis Helps With Great Decisions

We believe there will be a flood of investment opportunities over the next few years. To distinguish a diamond in the rough from Fool’s Gold, it is important to get smart about which submarkets will emerge first – and strongest …

Affordability Sells Homes

An ad is helping one Texas builder called LGI Homes capture 20 to 30 combined sales per week from 3 communities. The people selling homes for this builder know how to speak the language of their buyers. In this case, money …

Single-Family Construction Temporarily Bottoming Out

While the continued decline in total housing construction is getting all the headlines, seasonally adjusted single-family construction activity was up slightly month-over-month. This is consistent with the findings of our monthly survey of builders, who report a slight increase in …

Florida and California are Night and Day

California’s excess resale supply (homes for sale) is starting to come back in balance, while Florida’s supply is completely out of whack. At 10.2 months of supply, the U.S. still has 42% more inventory than normal, but supply is nearing …

Introducing the Housing Cycle GPA – A Leading Indicator for Housing

In our quest to be the first to properly call a bottom in this housing cycle, we have developed a tool called the Housing Cycle GPA. Our analysis has shown that the health of the market fundamentals (demand, supply and …

Sales Headlines Are Misleading

Decision makers don’t have time to study all of the data, yet they make huge decisions every day based on what they believe to be the market outlook. Smart decision makers rely on someone who is unbiased to study all …

Best of Times, Worst of Times

We have the best housing affordability in at least 38 years, and the worst economy in 51 years. Hmm…. The monthly cost of homeownership has fallen 43% from the peak in this cycle, with more than half of that due …

Employment Likely to Hit 88%

Our headline is certainly a positive way of saying that we think a 12% unemployment rate (in 2011) is the most likely scenario. What matters to housing is that 88% of people will still be gainfully employed, and will probably …

Housing Affordability Reaches Its Best Levels in Several Generations!

Since we began tracking the data for the major MSAs in 1981, there has never been a better time to buy a home. The median income household needs only 27% of their income (an all-time low) to qualify for the …