Building Market Intelligence

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The National Bank of the United States

The U.S. government now controls the U.S. mortgage industry, which means two very favorable things for home builders: The near-term future of mortgage liquidity will be set by policy rather than economics. In an election year, that can only be …

First Impressions Are Crucial

In today’s competitive environment, you really have to stand out. A potential buyer’s first impression should be very positive. Clean Up the Neighborhood How does the neighborhood look? Is there something you can do to clean it up? Identify the …

Permit Plummet Is Astonishing

Single-family permits in the Northeast, Midwest and West are already below their respective troughs in 1991, and the South is well on its way to a similar decline. In all regions, single-family permits have declined by 50% or more from …

National Affordability Statistics Are Misleading

In recent weeks, we were in several meetings where analysts made the bullish argument that affordability had improved to the point where home prices could fall no further. While affordability has indeed returned to normal levels (as shown by the …

Patience Is a Virtue, But It Isn’t Exciting

Whoever coined the phrase “patience is a virtue” could not possibly have had the current housing bust in mind. Billions of dollars have been raised by very impatient investors who want to buy real estate at a discount. However, most …

Gas Prices Shift Demand Back to the Urban Core

We believe that there is going to be a tremendous shift back to urban areas, led by those who bought homes in the outlying areas who lose their home to foreclosure. They will choose to rent near work to save …

Listings Are No Longer Rising

In the markets that matter, listings are now running relatively flat year over year. Each month, we painstakingly compile listings in the major markets of the country. As shown in the green and dotted line in the chart below, listings …

Price Corrections Are Not As Bad As Reported

It is true that home prices have corrected more than any time in the past, and further price declines are likely. However, the methodology used to track home prices is overstating the actual correction. Some examples of reported overstatements thus …

Limited Government Intervention Needed Immediately

Here are our 5 suggested public policy solutions to solve the housing crisis: Immediately Create Tax Incentives to Encourage Home Buying Activity: Allow for a tax deduction equal to 3% of the purchase price for anyone buying a home for …

GIGO Cash Flows (Garbage in, Garbage Out)

We have reviewed more than 500 cash flow reports and appraisals this year, and we are stunned by what we are finding. It is very common to find: “Updated cash flows” with home price assumptions that are much higher than …