Surprise Patterns Emerge in the Spring Selling Season | John Burns Real Estate Consulting

Surprise Patterns Emerge in the Spring Selling Season


Generally, the 2011 spring selling season has been a disappointment, but look closely and you’ll find year-over-year sales comparisons at the metro level are revealing some surprising patterns.

Each month, we survey 250 to 350 public and private builder executives about conditions at over 1,800 communities they manage nationwide. This is not a statistically valid sample at the metro level (3 to 13 sample size), and remember that going from 1.0 sales per community to 1.5 sales is a 50% increase, but this is the most timely data out there (we publish three business days after month-end) and pretty close to an apples and apples comparison YOY.

Here is one of our March findings, along with some analysis when we dug deeper into the commentary from each builder:

  1. Some stronger markets are seeing lower net sales this year due to increased competition. One surprise is that some of the presumed stronger markets, which have seen job growth return, are seeing net sales per community below last year’s levels. Today, Raleigh and San Diego, with their diverse economies and broad appeal, are alongside more distressed metros like Sacramento and Riverside-San Bernardino. However, these metros are in the red for different reasons.
    • Raleigh has been swamped with new market entrants in the last year. All opened well located, new communities on lots purchased at distressed prices, and introduced product priced at the sweet spot in the market. New home sales are occurring in Raleigh, but spread out across many communities. Net sales per community of 1.25 this March are diluted from 1.75 last year. The builders are reporting net sales of 0.5 to 2.5 per community.
    • San Diego’s average net sales of 1.95 this March are well above the nation and region, but off from 2.55 last year. The builders reported net sales this March ranging from 0 to over 8.0 at a move-up community in a great North County location. The number of open communities is up from last year, and legacy projects are dragging down the sales average. South County is generally weaker than North County, though some new projects are performing well.
    • In Riverside-San Bernardino, average net sales of 1.29 this March are below the 1.71 from last year. The range of net sales reported by builders is zero to 3.0. Here builders face continued competition from distressed sales, plus improved affordability closer-in. The 2nd highest job losses in the state are further deflating sales.
    • Sacramento’s 1.83 net sales this March came in well below the 2.50 from last year, as a high level of distressed activity paired with the biggest job losses in the state have eroded market conditions in the last year. The builders reported net sales ranging from 0 to 3.0 this March.
  2. Last year’s very low sales are driving percentage increases in some distressed metros. Here is a look at four of the hardest hit metro areas, besieged by foreclosures and swamped with inventory. Though sales are still far below average norms, these metros are seeing increased net sales per community year-over-year:
    • Las Vegas: The March 2011 average was 1.25 net sales per community, up from 0.90 last March, but a few builders who sold 2.0 to 3.0 per month this March are offsetting much lower sales of 0.5 to 1.5 per month, and pulling up the average.
    • Chicago: The average net sales per community in March 2011 were just 0.83, but that’s an improvement from 0.5 last March. Builders in our recent survey reported net sales ranging from 0 to 5.0.
    • Atlanta: Net sales of 1.7 in March are better than the national average and a big percentage change from 1.13 last year.
    • Phoenix: Average net sales per community reached 2.5 this March, up from 1.7 last year. Builders in our recent survey reported net sales ranging from 0 to over 8.0, with notable strength at active adult communities.
    • Cincinnati: One builder reported over 8.0 net sales per community this March, while the rest were stuck at 0.5 to 1.5 per community. Metro net sales averaging 3.33 this year are up from 1.0 last March.

Certainly the national average net sales per community of 1.62 in March was not worthy of fanfare, but the silver lining is sales were only down 6% year-over-year. This is actually better than we were expecting, based on: Tax credit fueled sales last March, and negative weekly feedback on traffic, sales and pricing that comes from our builder contacts.

Contact me if you are actively building and would like to be a part of our survey group or if you are interested in receiving these reports each month.

This is the most current available data for all variables and markets.

Permits Statistics
Employment Statistics
Affordability
12-
12-
Total
NF Payroll Employment
State
Metro Area*
Month
S. Fam. Permits
Month
Total Permits
Permits / Peak Permits
1-Yr Growth
1-Yr Growth Rate
Unemp Rate
Median Home Price
Housing Costs / Income
JBREC Afford. Index
Alabama
Anniston-Oxford 93 96 20% 200 0.4% 9.7% $85,777 22% 2.4
Auburn-Opelika 588 806 37% 1,200 2.3% 7.9% $127,431 33% 2.8
Birmingham 1,467 1,506 19% (1,600) (0.3%) 9.1% $144,814 29% 2.8
Decatur 181 201 21% 1,100 2.1% 9.7% $97,437 23% 3.9
Dothan 277 285 38% (600) (1.1%) 9.0% $88,678 22% 2.0
Florence 156 233 30% 900 1.7% 9.3% $94,702 21% 0.7
Gadsden 95 103 26% 0 0.0% 9.8% $85,734 19% 0.4
Huntsville 2,235 2,263 45% 600 0.3% 8.0% $122,699 20% 0.7
Mobile 904 1,268 46% 2,300 1.3% 10.7% $115,996 26% 2.1
Montgomery 468 999 38% (1,300) (0.8%) 9.4% $128,570 27% 3.6
Tuscaloosa 338 585 22% 1,200 1.3% 8.7% $119,636 27% 1.2
Alaska
Anchorage 413 534 6% 1,700 1.0% 7.4% $180,992 22% 0.7
Fairbanks 40 40 5% 300 0.8% 7.5% $141,553 18% 0.5
Arizona
Flagstaff 174 279 21% 2,300 3.9% 8.9% $215,000 31% 0.0
Phoenix 6,688 7,445 11% 11,900 0.7% 8.8% $120,000 18% 0.3
Prescott 261 363 8% (600) (1.1%) 10.5% $127,287 24% 0.1
Tucson 1,559 2,582 20% (4,600) (1.3%) 8.8% $139,950 25% 0.0
Yuma 410 410 15% (1,900) (3.7%) 21.5% $109,900 22% 0.0
Arkansas
Fayetteville 1,109 1,307 17% 4,500 2.3% 6.7% $100,694 18% 0.3
Fort Smith 498 635 48% 300 0.3% 9.1% $76,668 16% 0.3
Hot Springs 38 38 10% 100 0.3% 8.8% $108,386 22% 0.3
Jonesboro 362 550 56% 1,300 2.7% 7.9% $76,924 16% 0.3
Little Rock 1,757 3,697 64% 6,200 1.9% 7.1% $133,293 23% 4.0
Pine Bluff 41 113 27% (900) (2.4%) 10.4% $67,269 16% 1.9
California
Bakersfield 1,047 1,354 15% 2,200 1.0% 17.0% $115,000 18% 0.1
Chico 138 432 22% 500 0.7% 14.3% $150,000 27% 0.0
El Centro 131 139 6% (900) (2.0%) 26.9% $135,000 26% 2.4
Fresno 1,346 1,396 19% 2,500 0.9% 18.2% $133,000 22% 0.1
Hanford 146 198 15% (100) (0.3%) 18.0% $146,000 26% 4.4
Los Angeles (D) 2,580 6,915 10% 40,200 1.1% 12.3% $320,000 44% 1.8
Madera 119 127 6% 0 0.0% 16.4% $138,500 24% 1.4
Merced 55 55 2% 700 1.3% 21.3% $105,250 21% 0.7
Modesto 160 160 3% 1,500 1.1% 18.1% $126,000 20% 0.0
Monterey 119 183 7% (100) (0.1%) 16.9% $225,000 29% 0.4
Napa 122 122 12% (1,200) (2.1%) 10.3% $324,500 35% 1.3
Oakland (D) 1,735 3,113 14% (800) (0.1%) 10.8% $299,000 32% 1.4
Orange County (D) 1,736 3,489 14% 16,300 1.2% 8.9% $479,000 51% 4.5
Redding 154 217 9% (200) (0.4%) 16.7% $160,000 28% 1.5
Riverside-San Bernardino 5,094 5,909 10% (4,400) (0.4%) 13.9% $173,000 25% 1.2
Sacramento 2,050 2,420 10% (13,600) (1.7%) 12.6% $185,000 25% 0.4
San Diego 2,172 3,922 9% 19,100 1.6% 10.1% $347,500 44% 2.8
San Francisco (D) 379 1,480 22% 7,400 0.8% 8.6% $575,000 56% 1.2
San Jose 902 4,201 42% 17,300 2.1% 10.6% $477,000 43% 2.0
San Luis Obispo 317 478 13% 1,500 1.6% 9.8% $330,000 45% 2.1
Santa Barbara 306 446 16% 1,200 0.8% 9.6% $300,000 39% 1.4
Santa Cruz 102 108 8% 2,400 2.9% 14.6% $378,500 48% 0.6
Santa Rosa 337 580 10% 4,400 2.7% 10.2% $322,000 39% 1.0
Stockton 784 796 11% 400 0.2% 17.6% $155,000 23% 0.3
Vallejo-Fairfield 439 439 7% (600) (0.5%) 12.1% $186,000 22% 0.2
Ventura 184 554 7% 2,300 0.9% 10.4% $384,000 42% 3.5
Visalia-Porterville 654 736 21% (700) (0.7%) 18.1% $110,250 22% 0.0
Yuba-Sutter 87 89 3% 200 0.6% 21.3% $137,000 22% 0.5
Colorado
Boulder 289 702 14% 1,400 0.9% 7.5% $333,000 44% 6.2
Colorado Springs 1,550 1,634 15% 600 0.2% 10.5% $175,000 26% 2.4
Denver 3,497 4,871 17% 8,600 0.7% 9.7% $210,000 29% 3.8
Fort Collins 495 1,150 31% 2,400 1.8% 8.3% $230,000 34% 5.1
Grand Junction 344 356 17% 300 0.5% 11.5% $131,451 21% 0.4
Greeley 701 756 17% 100 0.1% 11.2% $149,000 22% 0.9
Pueblo 192 221 15% 0 0.0% 11.6% $80,339 18% 0.7
Connecticut
Bridgeport 652 899 17% 8,600 2.2% 9.0% $391,493 38% 0.7
Hartford 1,063 1,345 13% 7,200 1.4% 9.6% $235,260 26% 0.1
New Haven 513 1,059 15% 1,200 0.5% 9.9% $222,179 27% 0.4
Norwich 290 349 12% (400) (0.3%) 9.6% $198,766 23% 0.2
Delaware
Dover 674 842 39% 1,400 2.3% 9.0% $191,210 31% 5.4
Wilmington (D) 885 1,012 16% 2,400 0.7% 9.3% $194,114 27% 1.7
District of Columbia
Washington D.C. (D) 7,743 11,410 30% 56,900 2.4% 6.0% $321,440 29% 3.6
Florida
Daytona Beach 517 649 8% (700) (0.4%) 11.5% $90,000 15% 0.0
Fort Lauderdale (D) 920 1,265 7% 2,900 0.4% 9.7% $147,400 21% 0.0
Fort Myers 1,103 1,184 4% (3,000) (1.5%) 11.7% $88,000 14% 0.4
Gainesville 305 424 13% 700 0.5% 7.8% $158,522 29% 0.7
Jacksonville 3,122 3,391 14% 3,300 0.6% 10.6% $125,000 18% 0.0
Lakeland 1,140 1,226 9% 400 0.2% 11.7% $90,000 15% 0.0
Melbourne 846 1,079 11% (2,000) (1.0%) 11.4% $94,100 15% 0.0
Miami (D) 974 3,598 14% 9,400 1.0% 11.8% $150,000 26% 0.0
Naples 767 1,088 13% (700) (0.6%) 10.7% $195,150 27% 0.9
Ocala 460 460 6% (1,000) (1.1%) 13.2% $81,000 15% 0.1
Orlando 3,902 5,111 14% 22,900 2.3% 10.8% $115,000 17% 0.0
Panama City 217 333 6% 1,200 1.7% 11.2% $149,939 24% 0.8
Pensacola 1,207 1,484 23% 3,300 2.1% 10.3% $133,194 20% 0.0
Port St. Lucie 397 423 4% 900 0.7% 12.4% $105,000 16% 0.2
Punta Gorda 299 431 9% (200) (0.5%) 11.6% $89,900 16% 0.3
Sarasota 1,637 1,920 13% 1,100 0.5% 11.4% $129,950 20% 0.3
Tallahassee 488 1,028 24% 500 0.3% 8.2% $145,546 26% 0.4
Tampa 4,421 6,531 17% 6,300 0.6% 11.5% $105,000 17% 0.0
Vero Beach 298 298 7% (1,100) (2.5%) 12.9% $112,500 19% 1.0
West Palm Beach (D) 1,214 1,472 6% (700) (0.1%) 11.1% $180,000 26% 1.2
Georgia
Albany 173 241 19% 500 0.8% 10.7% $85,638 18% 0.4
Athens 180 188 8% 900 1.1% 7.7% $122,339 25% 0.5
Atlanta 6,235 7,501 10% (3,900) (0.2%) 10.2% $108,286 16% 0.4
Augusta 2,366 2,389 44% (500) (0.2%) 8.8% $106,332 19% 0.6
Brunswick 392 392 31% 0 0.0% 10.5% $131,010 25% 1.8
Columbus 690 1,247 56% 1,000 0.9% 9.7% $100,251 21% 1.0
Dalton 91 91 8% 500 0.8% 12.2% $95,562 21% 1.3
Gainesville 174 174 7% 1,700 2.4% 8.9% $117,761 20% 0.5
Hinesville 205 205 23% (100) (0.5%) 8.8% $94,524 18% 0.7
Macon 226 228 12% 1,500 1.6% 10.3% $90,778 18% 0.4
Rome 57 134 19% (400) (1.0%) 10.7% $88,903 19% 0.5
Savannah 1,061 1,353 28% 400 0.3% 9.0% $129,981 23% 1.8
Valdosta 499 757 52% 0 0.0% 9.1% $98,609 22% 0.5
Warner Robins 607 607 29% 200 0.3% 7.8% $92,980 16% 0.8
Hawaii
Honolulu 889 1,815 37% 8,600 2.0% 5.2% $596,411 76% 5.6
Idaho
Boise City 1,578 1,641 14% (2,300) (0.9%) 10.5% $138,138 21% 1.0
Coeur D’Alene 472 676 25% 1,600 3.2% 13.0% $130,325 20% 0.4
Idaho Falls 304 308 16% 200 0.4% 8.6% $95,471 15% 0.4
Lewiston 77 81 20% (300) (1.2%) 8.5% $123,064 21% 0.5
Pocatello 140 140 20% 100 0.3% 9.8% $91,639 15% 0.4
Illinois
Bloomington 287 511 30% 300 0.3% 7.4% $163,901 23% 1.3
Champaign-Urbana 257 533 25% (1,400) (1.3%) 8.4% $142,193 26% 3.9
Chicago (D) 2,566 4,739 11% 39,400 1.1% 9.0% $160,000 22% 0.0
Danville 2 2 1% (100) (0.4%) 11.2% $54,303 13% 1.8
Decatur 80 80 13% 700 1.4% 11.2% $90,045 16% 1.3
Kankakee-Bradley 67 71 9% 400 1.0% 13.1% $112,059 17% 0.7
Lake-Kenosha (D) 581 999 16% 100 0.0% 10.6% $208,007 24% 0.8
Peoria 650 706 36% 4,900 2.9% 9.6% $124,696 19% 4.0
Rockford 269 277 11% 600 0.4% 13.6% $101,562 19% 4.9
Springfield 368 471 30% 1,200 1.1% 8.1% $120,332 18% 0.7
Indiana
Anderson 72 73 9% 0 0.0% 11.0% $78,473 15% 0.3
Bloomington 227 288 24% 300 0.4% 7.6% $123,336 27% 2.5
Columbus 135 135 22% 1,000 2.4% 8.2% $115,267 19% 0.8
Elkhart-Goshen 169 229 14% 4,700 4.7% 11.6% $101,262 20% 3.3
Evansville 557 662 30% 1,500 0.9% 8.0% $90,182 16% 0.4
Fort Wayne 760 838 23% 3,600 1.8% 9.3% $98,493 16% 1.5
Gary (D) 909 1,069 23% 800 0.3% 9.8% $121,066 20% 2.9
Indianapolis 3,547 6,061 35% 6,300 0.7% 8.6% $123,182 20% 2.9
Kokomo 21 21 3% 2,700 7.1% 10.7% $77,945 12% 0.1
Lafayette 429 505 28% 1,400 1.5% 7.5% $105,660 21% 0.6
Michigan City 127 151 25% 900 2.2% 11.2% $107,400 18% 0.7
Muncie 60 64 11% (600) (1.2%) 10.0% $72,240 17% 0.7
South Bend 232 375 19% 1,100 0.9% 10.2% $74,661 14% 0.4
Terre Haute 176 384 56% (1,700) (2.4%) 10.7% $74,570 15% 0.3
Iowa
Ames 112 186 20% 200 0.4% 4.7% $129,202 21% 0.3
Cedar Rapids 696 855 42% 1,100 0.8% 6.8% $141,966 21% 1.5
Davenport 458 629 41% 2,200 1.3% 8.4% $112,391 17% 1.0
Des Moines 2,111 2,678 43% (500) (0.2%) 6.7% $148,911 20% 1.2
Dubuque 317 520 60% 1,600 3.0% 6.8% $112,393 18% 0.4
Iowa City 393 539 32% (400) (0.5%) 4.7% $147,574 24% 0.5
Sioux City 259 277 23% (900) (1.2%) 6.5% $87,230 15% 0.4
Waterloo 373 380 45% 800 0.9% 6.5% $107,223 18% 3.4
Kansas
Lawrence 181 295 16% (300) (0.6%) 6.5% $138,652 26% 2.3
Topeka 370 394 29% (1,600) (1.5%) 7.8% $106,879 18% 2.8
Wichita 973 1,155 25% (900) (0.3%) 8.4% $117,898 19% 3.2
Kentucky
Bowling Green 348 545 39% 500 0.9% 10.0% $105,408 18% 0.2
Elizabethtown 689 919 69% 2,500 5.6% 10.1% $108,165 18% 0.2
Lexington 1,117 1,342 26% 4,500 1.9% 9.2% $145,562 22% 0.9
Louisville 1,915 2,456 28% 9,500 1.7% 11.0% $130,967 21% 0.7
Owensboro 274 336 31% 900 1.9% 10.0% $82,635 14% 0.1
Louisiana
Baton Rouge 2,832 2,979 33% 400 0.1% 8.1% $169,968 24% 0.7
Houma 370 370 31% 3,600 4.0% 5.8% $110,562 17% 0.4
Lafayette 737 808 16% 2,400 1.7% 6.3% $124,884 18% 0.2
Lake Charles 987 1,209 80% (700) (0.8%) 7.3% $101,956 15% 0.2
Monroe 269 352 29% (500) (0.7%) 8.4% $94,465 17% 0.1
New Orleans 1,911 2,248 17% 6,500 1.3% 7.8% $162,246 24% 0.9
Shreveport 1,118 1,337 44% 3,100 1.8% 7.2% $155,551 25% 2.6
Maine
Bangor 232 249 25% (500) (0.8%) 7.9% $115,329 22% 0.7
Lewiston-Auburn 158 200 23% (100) (0.2%) 8.2% $122,989 25% 1.6
Portland 1,229 1,267 22% 1,100 0.6% 6.8% $216,156 31% 2.1
Maryland
Baltimore 3,648 5,673 29% 16,400 1.3% 7.7% $231,375 29% 4.1
Bethesda (D) 1,685 3,069 25% 17,700 3.3% 5.4% $410,000 37% 5.9
Cumberland 80 84 21% 1,600 4.2% 9.5% $94,777 21% 2.5
Hagerstown 610 670 16% 600 0.6% 10.5% $137,061 22% 0.5
Salisbury 178 237 18% 1,900 3.7% 9.5% $128,297 24% 0.2
Massachusetts
Barnstable Town 392 428 9% 1,700 2.0% 11.3% $317,003 40% 1.3
Boston (D) 1,121 2,743 26% 12,700 0.8% 7.1% $354,797 38% 2.6
Cambridge (D) 1,283 1,757 24% 22,200 0.9% 7.5% $376,704 35% 0.9
Pittsfield 105 152 17% 800 2.3% 8.9% $199,179 36% 4.0
Springfield 499 562 12% 2,500 0.9% 9.9% $189,680 29% 2.0
Worcester 1,193 2,517 34% 2,600 1.1% 8.9% $214,092 25% 0.6
Michigan
Ann Arbor 337 663 23% 200 0.1% 6.5% $150,040 23% 0.4
Battle Creek 32 32 5% 600 1.1% 9.4% $79,067 17% 1.8
Bay City 17 17 4% 100 0.3% 10.7% $75,689 14% 0.3
Detroit (D) 456 636 10% 4,500 0.7% 12.7% $81,753 18% 0.8
Flint 81 83 2% (1,200) (0.9%) 11.8% $68,770 14% 0.3
Grand Rapids 815 825 16% 6,100 1.7% 8.9% $93,481 16% 1.4
Holland 414 461 17% 1,700 1.7% 9.3% $125,006 20% 1.0
Jackson 72 72 7% 0 0.0% 10.8% $86,637 15% 0.5
Kalamazoo 322 335 14% 600 0.4% 9.4% $105,117 21% 1.2
Lansing 335 340 11% 3,300 1.5% 8.3% $79,163 14% 0.7
Monroe 117 121 10% 400 1.1% 10.5% $108,468 17% 0.3
Muskegon 93 115 12% (100) (0.2%) 11.3% $77,459 16% 0.4
Niles 197 197 24% 2,000 3.5% 11.1% $108,683 22% 3.3
Saginaw 83 107 11% 1,300 1.6% 10.4% $56,928 12% 1.7
Warren (D) 1,964 2,427 12% 15,900 1.6% 11.3% $136,688 20% 0.4
Minnesota
Duluth 382 454 27% 700 0.6% 8.2% $105,686 18% 2.9
Minneapolis 3,737 5,655 20% 9,600 0.6% 6.9% $170,167 21% 0.8
Rochester 332 474 24% 800 0.8% 6.2% $122,759 15% 0.3
St. Cloud 353 422 21% 2,500 2.6% 7.7% $120,764 20% 0.9
Mississippi
Gulfport-Biloxi 1,239 1,668 30% 1,500 1.4% 9.2% $119,262 25% 2.7
Hattiesburg 55 55 5% 800 1.4% 9.1% $89,348 18% 0.4
Jackson 1,310 1,398 31% 1,900 0.8% 8.4% $134,699 28% 5.0
Pascagoula 272 299 19% 1,200 2.1% 10.5% $96,831 18% 0.6
Missouri
Columbia 546 830 36% 1,600 1.7% 6.6% $150,025 25% 1.1
Jefferson City 219 255 22% 700 0.9% 7.8% $104,409 16% 0.5
Joplin 128 169 23% 2,100 2.7% 8.5% $80,857 16% 0.4
Kansas City 2,103 2,523 14% (5,200) (0.5%) 9.2% $135,810 20% 0.6
Springfield 847 1,297 25% 700 0.4% 8.9% $109,812 22% 0.7
St. Joseph 97 152 36% 600 1.1% 9.0% $85,106 15% 0.4
St. Louis 3,949 5,116 28% 5,700 0.4% 9.9% $125,979 19% 0.4
Montana
Billings 321 416 28% 800 1.0% 6.0% $117,592 20% 0.5
Great Falls 149 165 52% 400 1.2% 7.1% $96,439 19% 0.6
Missoula 175 331 29% (1,900) (3.5%) 8.2% $161,920 33% 3.0
Nebraska
Lincoln 783 867 32% 700 0.4% 4.2% $131,234 21% 2.1
Omaha 2,108 2,754 42% 2,700 0.6% 5.4% $136,998 19% 1.1
Nevada
Carson City 12 14 2% 200 0.7% 13.5% $136,977 21% 0.2
Las Vegas 4,238 5,176 13% (5,100) (0.6%) 13.7% $125,000 18% 0.0
Reno 477 633 10% 400 0.2% 13.2% $160,000 24% 0.1
New Hampshire
Manchester 351 782 11% 1,300 1.4% 5.7% $226,140 24% 0.7
New Jersey
Atlantic City 385 476 12% 0 0.0% 13.9% $224,852 31% 4.6
Camden (D) 1,168 1,894 22% (5,700) (1.1%) 10.3% $197,278 22% 0.6
Edison (D) 2,589 4,403 18% 2,100 0.2% 9.2% $343,695 34% 5.1
Newark-Union (D) 1,501 2,620 28% (7,500) (0.8%) 9.8% $368,658 38% 3.0
Ocean City 319 462 19% 1,800 5.6% 17.0% $229,317 37% 4.4
Trenton 161 534 15% (2,000) (0.8%) 8.2% $255,627 26% 2.3
Vineland 212 234 32% (100) (0.2%) 14.6% $132,107 20% 0.3
New Mexico
Albuquerque 1,499 1,705 19% (2,600) (0.7%) 9.1% $203,000 31% 2.9
Farmington 190 262 45% 400 0.8% 9.5% $179,148 27% 1.1
Las Cruces 726 901 36% 600 0.9% 9.0% $98,878 20% 0.3
Santa Fe 99 99 8% 500 0.8% 7.6% $203,065 28% 0.4
New York
Albany 1,126 1,436 27% (4,900) (1.1%) 7.8% $197,239 27% 2.7
Binghamton 140 190 15% (600) (0.6%) 9.1% $128,725 22% 3.5
Buffalo 1,063 1,459 31% 1,500 0.3% 8.8% $125,226 21% 3.1
Elmira 27 59 20% 300 0.8% 8.5% $102,379 18% 2.4
Glens Falls 284 324 20% 600 1.2% 9.5% $145,820 23% 1.3
Ithaca 85 104 16% 300 0.5% 6.0% $152,914 28% 2.6
Kingston 124 218 16% 900 1.5% 8.8% $211,248 29% 1.9
Nassau (D) 1,306 1,490 13% 10,600 0.9% 7.8% $381,682 34% 4.1
New York (D) 1,425 10,294 25% 36,800 0.7% 9.0% $441,157 58% 3.7
Poughkeepsie 911 1,580 31% (500) (0.2%) 8.4% $213,808 24% 0.2
Rochester 1,152 1,380 27% 4,600 0.9% 8.3% $120,321 19% 2.1
Syracuse 756 1,035 30% 1,600 0.5% 8.9% $125,899 20% 2.0
Utica-Rome 229 324 25% (800) (0.6%) 9.1% $109,343 19% 0.7
North Carolina
Asheville 1,051 2,040 47% 1,800 1.1% 8.5% $160,405 31% 2.8
Burlington 411 890 44% 600 1.1% 10.3% $106,507 19% 0.2
Charlotte 4,179 5,226 21% 5,400 0.7% 10.7% $155,189 24% 1.1
Durham 1,459 1,882 29% 2,000 0.7% 7.3% $192,000 31% 2.1
Fayetteville 1,703 3,423 79% 600 0.5% 9.3% $104,088 20% 0.6
Goldsboro 235 235 34% (600) (1.4%) 8.5% $96,409 18% 0.3
Greensboro 1,223 1,852 29% 600 0.2% 10.4% $130,499 25% 0.7
Greenville 350 647 25% (900) (1.2%) 9.7% $101,299 22% 0.3
Hickory 407 459 19% (400) (0.3%) 12.3% $101,746 22% 0.7
Jacksonville 2,050 2,306 97% (300) (0.6%) 8.7% $125,776 25% 1.4
Raleigh-Cary 4,404 4,924 28% 12,100 2.5% 8.0% $176,818 23% 0.3
Rocky Mount 195 201 20% 500 0.9% 12.7% $87,274 20% 0.5
Wilmington 1,510 1,787 19% 900 0.7% 10.3% $205,491 38% 4.7
Winston-Salem 939 1,243 28% (1,300) (0.6%) 9.7% $116,726 20% 0.3
North Dakota
Bismarck 569 655 60% 2,400 4.0% 4.6% $162,087 20% 1.6
Fargo 752 1,511 54% 1,200 1.0% 4.7% $150,222 22% 1.3
Grand Forks 136 182 27% 600 1.1% 5.4% $121,526 20% 0.4
Ohio
Akron 649 719 18% 5,400 1.7% 9.6% $106,000 17% 1.6
Canton 288 328 21% 2,000 1.3% 10.9% $86,956 14% 1.0
Cincinnati 2,649 3,014 19% 11,500 1.2% 9.7% $126,812 18% 0.5
Cleveland 1,798 1,891 24% 11,900 1.2% 9.1% $112,833 18% 1.8
Columbus 2,794 4,398 26% 15,700 1.8% 8.2% $115,000 17% 0.0
Dayton 625 711 17% 2,000 0.6% 10.2% $96,702 16% 0.8
Lima 46 85 17% 1,000 2.0% 10.4% $87,733 19% 2.3
Mansfield 44 66 11% 500 1.0% 11.6% $79,619 15% 0.3
Sandusky 44 48 9% 3,100 9.6% 10.5% $108,080 18% 0.0
Springfield 45 49 7% 1,900 4.0% 10.0% $87,779 16% 0.0
Toledo 488 811 20% 9,300 3.2% 10.9% $74,746 13% 0.3
Youngstown 389 418 22% 3,400 1.6% 10.8% $64,593 12% 0.8
Oklahoma
Lawton 270 373 34% 200 0.5% 6.6% $89,479 12% 0.2
Oklahoma City 3,032 3,325 15% 4,400 0.8% 6.2% $133,052 21% 1.1
Tulsa 2,084 2,435 20% 4,900 1.2% 7.7% $131,321 20% 0.4
Oregon
Bend 357 369 8% (300) (0.5%) 15.1% $131,504 20% 0.3
Corvallis 87 132 17% 1,000 2.7% 6.6% $183,709 35% 4.1
Eugene 441 540 20% 400 0.3% 10.6% $189,830 39% 6.2
Medford 286 366 17% (100) (0.1%) 13.1% $138,219 22% 0.3
Portland 3,210 4,536 23% 11,000 1.2% 10.0% $209,950 29% 3.3
Salem 446 713 21% (700) (0.5%) 11.1% $149,950 26% 3.7
Pennsylvania
Allentown 1,182 1,359 25% 2,400 0.7% 9.4% $218,382 30% 4.5
Altoona 73 75 15% 1,100 1.9% 7.6% $97,235 19% 2.2
Erie 323 446 44% 4,100 3.3% 8.8% $110,232 20% 2.0
Harrisburg 1,144 1,291 35% 1,400 0.4% 7.7% $141,525 21% 2.2
Johnstown 69 69 19% 1,600 2.7% 9.2% $80,786 18% 2.1
Lancaster 1,157 1,356 38% 2,100 1.0% 7.4% $163,417 23% 2.1
Lebanon 225 225 27% 1,000 2.1% 7.0% $137,603 22% 2.5
Philadelphia (D) 3,102 4,192 24% 22,500 1.2% 8.4% $226,211 30% 4.8
Pittsburgh 3,402 3,565 50% 23,700 2.2% 7.9% $122,487 21% 2.4
Reading 370 376 17% 2,400 1.5% 8.8% $149,115 22% 4.2
Scranton 769 816 38% 2,500 1.0% 9.9% $117,559 22% 1.7
State College 272 365 33% 800 1.1% 5.7% $157,825 25% 0.6
Williamsport 160 170 32% 800 1.6% 8.6% $112,255 23% 2.8
York 1,178 1,268 40% 4,300 2.5% 8.3% $149,754 21% 1.3
Rhode Island
Providence 1,164 1,396 12% 7,600 1.4% 12.1% $226,088 33% 1.6
South Carolina
Anderson 267 403 21% 2,600 4.5% 10.0% $95,332 19% 0.5
Charleston 2,455 2,641 24% 5,900 2.1% 8.5% $161,750 27% 0.0
Columbia 2,378 2,795 34% (500) (0.1%) 8.5% $120,000 21% 0.2
Florence 284 372 28% 400 0.5% 11.1% $116,630 24% 1.7
Greenville 1,469 1,551 28% 5,600 1.9% 8.5% $128,500 24% 3.7
Myrtle Beach 1,339 1,440 12% 4,400 4.2% 12.9% $144,759 27% 0.6
Spartanburg 544 544 20% 3,200 2.8% 10.1% $115,922 24% 4.0
Sumter 290 358 39% 400 1.1% 11.1% $96,044 20% 0.4
South Dakota
Rapid City 422 686 50% 400 0.7% 5.7% $120,928 21% 2.0
Sioux Falls 740 994 39% 1,200 0.9% 5.4% $141,014 23% 4.6
Tennessee
Chattanooga 921 1,034 27% 4,600 2.0% 8.8% $117,820 23% 0.7
Clarksville 1,046 1,788 56% 1,600 2.0% 11.0% $98,958 18% 0.5
Cleveland 229 314 33% 200 0.5% 10.1% $105,447 22% 0.5
Jackson 237 237 21% 500 0.9% 10.2% $85,101 18% 0.4
Johnson City 409 619 43% 400 0.5% 9.3% $110,734 25% 0.5
Kingsport 470 545 36% 1,200 1.0% 8.7% $105,843 24% 0.8
Knoxville 1,431 2,222 34% 6,300 2.0% 8.2% $139,170 25% 0.7
Memphis 1,635 2,308 21% (5,600) (1.0%) 10.4% $116,215 23% 1.7
Morristown 197 205 27% 700 1.6% 12.0% $97,571 21% 0.3
Nashville 3,763 4,410 24% 16,500 2.3% 8.8% $135,000 21% 0.0
Texas
Abilene 276 278 13% 700 1.1% 6.5% $110,000 19% 3.4
Amarillo 544 555 15% 2,500 2.3% 5.5% $113,800 20% 1.0
Austin 5,928 7,815 30% 11,400 1.5% 6.9% $190,000 26% 3.2
Beaumont 956 1,114 45% 2,400 1.5% 11.0% $116,700 21% 2.3
Brownsville 1,048 1,137 29% 1,200 1.0% 12.1% $116,700 28% 3.9
College Station 623 1,171 33% 1,500 1.5% 6.2% $116,700 27% 1.8
Corpus Christi 916 1,349 22% 2,900 1.6% 8.2% $143,900 27% 5.0
Dallas (D) 10,267 15,123 21% 54,100 2.7% 8.2% $158,700 22% 1.9
El Paso 3,017 4,621 71% 5,300 1.9% 10.1% $134,500 29% 4.3
Fort Worth (D) 4,546 5,943 15% 10,900 1.3% 8.1% $127,595 18% 0.3
Houston 21,422 26,528 35% 50,700 2.0% 8.4% $151,900 21% 2.1
Killeen 1,847 2,167 47% 2,700 2.1% 8.0% $114,623 20% 1.8
Laredo 636 800 33% 1,200 1.4% 8.4% $89,318 17% 0.5
Longview 250 368 23% 3,100 3.3% 7.0% $124,300 22% 2.9
Lubbock 688 1,286 31% 900 0.7% 6.1% $102,500 21% 0.0
McAllen 2,877 3,319 36% 5,100 2.3% 12.2% $100,000 25% 0.7
Midland 385 385 10% 2,700 4.1% 4.8% $124,717 18% 0.6
Odessa 259 699 33% 3,100 5.3% 6.6% $137,500 25% 4.8
San Angelo 153 153 10% 700 1.6% 6.4% $117,800 22% 4.5
San Antonio 4,907 6,165 28% 4,500 0.5% 7.5% $146,400 24% 3.0
Sherman 60 65 6% 200 0.5% 8.5% $60,000 11% 0.0
Texarkana 95 222 26% 1,400 2.5% 7.5% $79,148 15% 0.3
Tyler 147 217 7% 2,000 2.2% 7.8% $128,800 21% 1.1
Victoria 105 105 6% 800 1.7% 7.4% $116,700 19% 1.4
Waco 424 574 19% 1,600 1.5% 7.5% $118,600 23% 2.4
Wichita Falls 145 177 20% 600 1.0% 7.3% $90,800 16% 1.0
Utah
Logan 422 703 50% 1,500 2.9% 6.1% $121,471 21% 0.9
Ogden-Clearfield 1,285 1,370 27% 2,100 1.1% 8.1% $129,759 17% 0.5
Provo-Orem 1,485 1,893 29% 2,500 1.4% 8.3% $132,965 18% 0.2
Salt Lake City 1,844 2,940 24% 9,600 1.6% 7.6% $198,823 28% 4.7
St. George 854 874 23% 300 0.7% 10.4% $121,178 21% 0.3
Virginia
Charlottesville 582 1,421 54% 1,500 1.5% 5.3% $199,712 26% 0.5
Danville 80 130 25% 1,200 3.1% 10.1% $84,432 19% 0.4
Harrisonburg 355 425 33% 1,100 1.8% 6.1% $157,652 25% 0.5
Lynchburg 660 787 43% 2,900 2.9% 7.3% $130,449 23% 0.7
Richmond 2,570 3,390 30% 2,900 0.5% 7.4% $183,500 28% 2.6
Roanoke 407 439 23% 0 0.0% 7.1% $134,299 23% 0.8
Virginia Beach 3,175 4,192 18% (1,700) (0.2%) 7.3% $196,527 31% 4.5
Winchester 324 326 18% 1,600 3.1% 7.5% $134,679 20% 0.1
Washington
Bellingham 423 463 18% (900) (1.2%) 9.5% $199,688 31% 1.3
Bremerton 425 427 17% (600) (0.7%) 8.3% $250,000 28% 3.0
Kennewick 1,743 1,747 54% 3,300 3.5% 8.5% $181,576 22% 2.2
Longview 122 137 20% (800) (2.3%) 13.0% $125,845 20% 0.3
Mount Vernon 199 204 18% 500 1.2% 11.3% $172,887 23% 0.4
Olympia 1,000 1,105 35% (1,600) (1.6%) 8.9% $198,000 25% 1.7
Seattle (D) 4,225 7,098 26% 21,400 1.6% 9.0% $309,000 33% 2.2
Spokane 1,078 1,538 35% 800 0.4% 10.6% $157,275 26% 3.2
Tacoma (D) 1,772 1,988 29% 700 0.3% 10.6% $195,950 25% 0.9
Wenatchee 347 352 32% 900 2.5% 10.0% $170,822 24% 0.4
Yakima 434 516 42% 200 0.3% 11.5% $155,275 27% 2.8
West Virginia
Charleston 292 309 37% 0 0.0% 9.3% $130,326 22% 0.6
Huntington 93 184 29% 200 0.2% 9.7% $85,338 17% 0.3
Morgantown 23 57 22% 1,000 1.6% 7.1% $120,230 28% 2.0
Parkersburg 118 120 27% 300 0.4% 10.7% $85,814 16% 0.4
Wheeling 15 15 5% 1,200 1.8% 10.6% $74,690 15% 0.2
Wisconsin
Appleton 346 542 25% 1,700 1.5% 7.8% $112,698 16% 0.6
Eau Claire 270 340 24% 1,200 1.5% 7.7% $111,322 20% 2.0
Fond Du Lac 133 249 40% 1,300 3.0% 8.3% $114,661 18% 0.6
Green Bay 712 1,922 62% 1,200 0.7% 8.0% $126,776 20% 1.0
Janesville 138 142 11% (500) (0.8%) 10.7% $106,613 17% 0.7
La Crosse 254 329 39% (600) (0.8%) 7.0% $118,159 18% 0.4
Madison 787 1,231 20% 100 0.0% 6.0% $216,692 31% 5.0
Milwaukee 967 2,065 24% 16,600 2.1% 8.4% $207,890 32% 5.3
Oshkosh-Neenah 254 360 25% 700 0.8% 7.3% $109,974 20% 2.1
Racine 144 154 12% 900 1.2% 10.0% $130,811 20% 1.2
Sheboygan 55 60 8% 800 1.4% 8.6% $120,240 18% 0.6
Wausau 294 314 23% 600 0.9% 8.5% $112,655 18% 1.5
Wyoming
Casper 322 550 65% 300 0.8% 7.1% $109,977 15% 0.2
Cheyenne 209 209 24% 400 0.9% 7.7% $115,165 20% 1.6
* The government defines metro areas and includes metro divisions within some areas. In these instances, we report at the more detailed division level, because that is what most of our clients use for decision making. For example, we report on the Los Angeles and Orange County divisions separately, rather than the Los Angeles MSA, which includes both Los Angeles and Orange counties. We also use the more colloquial names used by business people, so we refer to the “Santa Ana-Anaheim-Irvine” division as “Orange County.” For the government definitions, visit: http://www.census.gov/population/www/metroareas/lists/2009/List1.txt

 


Jody Kahn If you have any questions, please contact Jody Kahn at (603) 235-5760 or by email.

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