Tampa: It's All About the Jobs | John Burns Real Estate Consulting

Tampa: It’s All About the Jobs


Tampa, Fla., was once both a place and state of big builder bliss – the availability of land combined with strong job and population growth fueled a steady rise in permits from 1991 all the way through 2005. Today, that bliss has turned to suffering as our current estimate puts Tampa’s months of supply of existing homes at 16.3, based on a rolling 12-month sales rate.

Tampa’s housing market is closely tied to the region’s employment growth, but even when the market saw job losses during a local recession in 2001 and 2002, the pace of permit issuance continued to rise. Permit issuance peaked in 2005. Even though it has virtually ground to a halt today, the result of increased construction during the recession has resulted in a considerable oversupply of both homes and vacant lots and land in Tampa.

Today, significant job losses in the metro area continue to put downward pressure on home prices and sales velocity. Over the last 12 months ending in September, Tampa lost nearly 23,000 jobs equating to a 1.8% decline in employment. The job losses have resulted in the unemployment rate jumping to 7.0% from a low of 3.4% in 2006.

Median existing home prices in Tampa have declined approximately 36% from the peak, but home prices in the metro area have not corrected to the extent of other major metropolitan areas in the state. The median home price Tampa was $151,000 in September, which is approximately the level of late 2005. Affordability has improved, but the housing market still remains relatively expensive based on a historical perspective. With declining employment and weak home demand, we expect Tampa’s median home price to continue falling. Foreclosure activity has increased dramatically over the past few months, and this trend is likely to continue with job losses.
Today, there is a tremendous excess of land and vacant developed lots in Tampa, and most of this land is trading for pennies on the dollar. There was some land activity late last year and in early 2008 as opportunistic investors purchased large blocks of lots, but there has been no new construction on these lots and many of these investors are now underwater.

Despite the weak current environment, a few developers continue to move forward with large, master-planned communities. These developers believe in the vitality of Tampa’s housing market in the long term and want to be positioned to take advantage of the potential upswing in the economy. The majority of these developers are currently surveying large tracts of land – especially in the south Tampa submarket. One large developer is even moving forward with construction of a 6,400-home, 2,350-acre community in the submarket, and expects to start delivering homes late next year.

Until job losses subside, Tampa is unlikely to recover or stabilize. But, long term, the market will continue to appeal to developers and home builders. The above-average population growth, availability of land and large employment base will once again contribute to a strong demand for housing.

This is the most current available data for all variables and markets.

 

Permits Statistics
Employment Statistics
Affordability
12-
12-
Total
NF Payroll Employment
State
Metro Area
Month
S. Fam. Permits
Month
Total Permits
Permits / Peak Permits
1-Yr Growth
1-Yr Growth Rate
Unemp Rate
Median Home Price
Housing Costs / Income
Housing Cycle Barometer
Alabama
Anniston-Oxford 199 213 43% 300 0.6% 5.3% $90,504 21% 0.6
Auburn-Opelika 907 1,112 51% 400 0.7% 4.5% $138,311 30% 0.5
Birmingham 2,814 4,112 53% (500) (0.1%) 4.8% $160,024 29% 1.2
Decatur 250 326 35% (500) (0.8%) 5.1% $102,765 22% 1.1
Dothan 374 374 50% (700) (1.1%) 4.9% $94,773 22% 0.7
Florence 286 510 65% 400 0.7% 5.3% $97,915 21% 0.4
Huntsville 2,271 3,003 60% 3,800 1.8% 3.9% $127,797 21% 0.6
Mobile 1,473 2,231 76% 600 0.3% 5.5% $132,042 29% 4.5
Montgomery 648 736 28% 1,600 0.9% 5.4% $138,473 26% 2.1
Tuscaloosa 634 1,483 57% 100 0.1% 4.5% $126,288 28% 0.7
Alaska
Anchorage 295 556 6% 1,100 0.6% 5.8% $210,009 26% 3.4
Arizona
Flagstaff 311 323 24% (1,400) (2.1%) 5.1% $229,962 44% 5.5
Phoenix 14,258 22,101 32% (43,200) (2.3%) 5.4% $174,925 29% 3.4
Prescott 788 881 20% (1,600) (2.4%) 5.9% $201,601 42% 4.6
Tucson 2,980 3,918 31% (8,200) (2.1%) 5.7% $181,000 36% 5.0
Yuma 931 1,011 37% (1,000) (1.9%) 20.5% $166,000 38% 5.6
Arkansas
Fayetteville 1,436 2,632 35% 1,800 0.9% 3.5% $117,397 20% 0.4
Fort Smith 527 798 61% 200 0.2% 4.3% $79,556 16% 0.3
Little Rock 2,031 3,083 54% 1,100 0.3% 4.0% $131,797 21% 1.7
California
Bakersfield 1,997 3,025 34% 2,700 1.1% 9.3% $165,000 34% 5.1
Chico 593 640 32% 200 0.3% 8.1% $225,500 49% 5.6
El Centro 279 387 18% 400 0.9% 24.5% $153,500 36% 3.9
Fresno 2,528 3,139 42% (600) (0.2%) 9.6% $179,000 37% 5.3
Hanford 266 276 20% 900 2.5% 9.3% $187,500 38% 6.9
Los Angeles 3,968 13,490 19% (23,600) (0.6%) 7.8% $360,000 61% 5.2
Madera 295 299 13% 100 0.3% 8.4% $168,000 38% 5.5
Merced 260 369 10% 900 1.5% 10.9% $135,000 29% 1.5
Modesto 668 979 15% (1,500) (0.9%) 10.5% $175,000 32% 2.6
Monterey 362 877 31% 1,300 1.0% 6.6% $271,000 43% 0.8
Napa 259 319 32% (700) (1.1%) 5.2% $400,000 53% 5.2
Oakland 2,235 5,122 22% (21,400) (2.0%) 6.7% $335,000 42% 2.1
Orange County 1,499 4,442 18% (29,600) (2.0%) 5.7% $480,000 59% 5.4
Redding 349 375 16% (600) (0.9%) 9.5% $201,750 41% 5.2
Riverside-San Bernardino 7,025 10,380 18% (19,700) (1.6%) 9.1% $215,000 35% 4.1
Sacramento 4,137 5,741 24% (11,000) (1.2%) 7.4% $221,000 34% 2.6
San Diego 2,360 6,139 14% (5,100) (0.4%) 6.4% $360,000 53% 4.2
San Francisco 631 3,327 49% 4,900 0.5% 5.3% $725,000 87% 6.2
San Jose 1,170 2,724 27% 700 0.1% 6.5% $525,000 57% 5.0
San Luis Obispo 710 985 27% (1,300) (1.3%) 6.1% $432,500 76% 6.7
Santa Barbara 261 301 11% (300) (0.2%) 5.6% $290,000 48% 2.4
Santa Cruz 334 461 33% 400 0.4% 6.1% $460,000 64% 3.6
Santa Rosa 612 815 14% (700) (0.4%) 5.8% $355,000 51% 4.0
Stockton 969 1,183 17% (1,200) (0.6%) 10.2% $187,750 32% 1.2
Vallejo-Fairfield 308 612 10% (2,400) (1.9%) 7.3% $260,000 37% 3.7
Ventura 473 1,235 16% (7,000) (2.4%) 7.0% $411,000 50% 4.6
Visalia-Porterville 1,504 1,654 46% (2,300) (2.0%) 10.6% $158,750 33% 4.5
Yuba-Sutter 213 279 9% (2,800) (6.6%) 11.2% $172,500 35% 3.5
Colorado
Boulder 242 542 11% 2,100 1.3% 4.2% $315,450 38% 4.8
Colorado Springs 1,846 2,259 21% 300 0.1% 5.8% $190,000 26% 1.8
Denver 4,595 10,182 36% 11,000 0.9% 5.2% $210,000 28% 2.5
Fort Collins 816 1,525 42% 700 0.5% 4.1% $217,500 30% 3.0
Grand Junction 804 900 44% 2,700 4.2% 3.8% $177,399 31% 4.5
Greeley 946 1,062 24% 1,500 1.8% 5.1% $167,000 24% 1.0
Pueblo 408 447 31% 500 0.9% 6.2% $95,158 19% 0.3
Connecticut
Bridgeport 839 1,651 31% 3,000 0.7% 5.5% $410,429 44% 0.2
Hartford 1,307 2,179 20% 7,500 1.3% 6.0% $238,045 32% 2.8
New Haven 672 1,027 14% (700) (0.3%) 6.2% $259,470 38% 4.1
Delaware
Dover 942 1,086 50% (600) (0.9%) 4.6% $193,794 35% 6.3
Wilmington 1,028 1,809 28% 200 0.1% 5.1% $218,539 33% 5.7
District of Columbia
Washington D.C. 7,702 13,185 35% 35,400 1.5% 4.1% $328,617 35% 5.1
Florida
Daytona Beach 1,031 1,439 18% (2,900) (1.7%) 7.2% $150,000 32% 5.1
Fort Lauderdale 1,036 2,702 14% (12,500) (1.6%) 6.1% $240,000 41% 5.7
Fort Myers 1,274 1,706 6% (7,600) (3.4%) 9.2% $136,700 24% 1.0
Fort Walton Beach 427 868 23% (1,700) (2.0%) 4.8% $194,881 31% 5.0
Gainesville 526 1,180 36% 1,300 1.0% 4.6% $179,643 43% 5.8
Jacksonville 5,354 7,624 30% (4,800) (0.8%) 6.3% $178,950 31% 5.8
Lakeland 2,565 3,598 27% (5,700) (2.7%) 7.9% $137,250 29% 5.3
Melbourne 1,295 2,035 21% (2,200) (1.0%) 7.2% $140,000 26% 4.8
Miami 1,415 3,812 15% (14,100) (1.3%) 6.0% $261,000 54% 7.0
Naples 682 1,134 14% (3,800) (3.0%) 8.4% $265,500 41% 4.6
Ocala 1,433 1,478 20% (1,900) (1.8%) 8.5% $135,000 29% 5.5
Orlando 6,150 12,394 34% (3,300) (0.3%) 6.4% $200,000 35% 6.1
Panama City 447 977 18% (1,900) (2.5%) 5.6% $194,282 37% 6.1
Pensacola 1,209 1,591 25% (1,500) (0.9%) 6.0% $149,241 28% 4.4
Port St. Lucie 1,158 1,610 15% 100 0.1% 9.3% $140,000 26% 3.3
Sarasota 1,722 2,184 15% (8,100) (2.8%) 7.5% $194,500 36% 5.8
Tallahassee 1,299 2,064 48% (2,200) (1.2%) 5.0% $164,337 35% 5.0
Tampa 5,717 10,088 27% (22,700) (1.8%) 7.0% $151,000 30% 5.1
West Palm Beach 1,534 2,530 11% (5,800) (1.0%) 7.3% $246,000 40% 5.4
Georgia
Albany 307 366 29% (1,000) (1.5%) 6.9% $91,917 22% 1.1
Athens 639 819 35% 500 0.6% 5.6% $138,375 31% 1.3
Atlanta 15,823 24,146 33% (33,600) (1.4%) 6.5% $154,815 23% 2.6
Augusta 1,957 2,368 43% (1,500) (0.7%) 6.5% $115,944 22% 1.3
Columbus 826 1,148 51% (800) (0.7%) 6.9% $108,318 23% 0.8
Dalton 283 396 36% (2,700) (3.5%) 7.5% $110,267 23% 2.2
Gainesville 529 538 21% 0 0.0% 5.8% $145,820 27% 4.1
Macon 657 990 53% (300) (0.3%) 6.8% $99,053 21% 0.7
Savannah 1,692 2,255 46% (1,300) (0.8%) 5.7% $148,813 29% 5.2
Valdosta 774 983 67% (1,000) (1.8%) 6.1% $110,404 27% 3.2
Warner Robins 729 934 44% (700) (1.2%) 5.5% $102,351 18% 0.8
Hawaii
Honolulu 826 1,627 33% (2,100) (0.5%) 4.2% $582,820 74% 5.3
Idaho
Boise City 2,752 3,399 29% (3,500) (1.3%) 4.8% $179,624 27% 4.2
Coeur D’Alene 715 859 32% 300 0.5% 4.5% $182,771 33% 5.0
Illinois
Bloomington 355 554 33% 600 0.7% 5.1% $149,705 25% 0.8
Champaign-Urbana 426 850 39% (300) (0.3%) 5.7% $140,464 28% 4.4
Chicago 7,281 17,168 39% (2,700) (0.1%) 6.4% $233,500 35% 5.0
Decatur 127 139 23% (100) (0.2%) 7.4% $75,648 16% 0.8
Lake-Kenosha 1,205 1,367 21% 900 0.2% 6.3% $253,456 31% 3.2
Peoria 871 1,075 56% 2,000 1.1% 5.7% $122,500 22% 5.4
Rockford 446 603 23% (800) (0.5%) 8.8% $115,355 21% 5.6
Springfield 319 557 36% 700 0.6% 6.1% $109,551 20% 1.2
Indiana
Bloomington 318 650 53% (600) (0.7%) 4.5% $125,051 27% 1.3
Elkhart-Goshen 398 590 36% (5,300) (4.1%) 9.3% $113,602 20% 2.3
Evansville 629 966 44% (400) (0.2%) 5.1% $95,600 19% 1.5
Fort Wayne 781 1,001 27% (600) (0.3%) 5.7% $92,228 17% 0.7
Gary 1,468 1,994 43% 1,300 0.5% 5.5% $130,932 22% 2.9
Indianapolis 5,009 7,203 42% 1,800 0.2% 5.1% $114,491 19% 0.7
Lafayette 532 549 30% (300) (0.3%) 4.7% $109,517 23% 0.7
Muncie 84 88 15% (800) (1.5%) 6.6% $75,369 18% 0.5
South Bend 508 1,048 53% (3,500) (2.4%) 6.8% $86,265 17% 0.7
Terre Haute 156 235 34% (1,300) (1.7%) 6.3% $79,485 18% 1.0
Iowa
Cedar Rapids 777 983 48% 1,500 1.1% 3.9% $132,040 24% 4.9
Davenport 490 639 42% 1,100 0.6% 5.1% $82,118 15% 0.2
Des Moines 2,058 2,799 44% 700 0.2% 3.7% $155,224 24% 4.8
Dubuque 224 257 30% (500) (0.9%) 3.7% $116,621 21% 1.3
Iowa City 656 746 44% (900) (1.0%) 2.8% $150,863 28% 0.9
Sioux City 202 217 18% (1,200) (1.6%) 3.5% $88,798 17% 1.0
Waterloo 373 392 47% 300 0.3% 3.7% $112,092 21% 5.6
Kansas
Topeka 506 762 55% 400 0.4% 5.5% $107,096 19% 3.1
Wichita 1,953 2,631 58% (1,300) (0.4%) 4.7% $118,760 21% 4.0
Kentucky
Bowling Green 399 492 36% 600 1.0% 5.5% $109,916 23% 1.0
Lexington 1,633 2,658 52% 600 0.2% 5.4% $141,239 28% 4.5
Louisville 2,884 3,991 45% (4,300) (0.7%) 7.0% $133,129 26% 5.2
Louisiana
Alexandria 504 520 55% (600) (0.9%) 4.5% $94,670 20% 0.5
Baton Rouge 2,796 4,082 45% (300) (0.1%) 5.4% $162,697 28% 4.1
Houma 637 884 74% (1,100) (1.1%) 5.6% $113,791 19% 0.5
Lafayette 938 1,236 24% 1,700 1.1% 3.3% $130,213 24% 0.7
Lake Charles 753 847 56% (100) (0.1%) 4.4% $106,337 19% 0.5
Monroe 272 350 29% (1,100) (1.4%) 5.2% $94,502 20% 0.4
New Orleans 3,265 5,368 40% 8,400 1.6% 5.3% $162,192 27% 1.8
Shreveport 1,105 1,660 54% 1,900 1.1% 5.2% $135,113 28% 4.3
Maine
Bangor 310 546 55% 100 0.2% 5.1% $129,815 26% 3.3
Portland 1,382 1,555 27% 800 0.4% 4.0% $224,025 35% 3.2
Maryland
Baltimore 3,359 5,798 30% 8,400 0.6% 4.7% $264,314 37% 8.1
Bethesda 1,660 2,676 22% 5,300 0.9% 3.4% $430,000 44% 7.2
Hagerstown 1,180 1,480 36% 800 0.8% 5.0% $183,462 29% 3.5
Salisbury 333 488 38% 200 0.4% 5.4% $150,739 30% 3.9
Massachusetts
Barnstable Town 535 706 14% (600) (0.6%) 5.0% $336,053 48% 1.8
Boston 1,373 4,085 39% 18,700 1.1% 4.8% $350,477 46% 4.6
Cambridge 1,384 2,546 34% 19,300 0.8% 5.0% $372,962 42% 2.9
Michigan
Ann Arbor 342 408 14% (3,300) (1.6%) 6.5% $172,827 26% 0.5
Battle Creek 76 101 16% (1,000) (1.7%) 8.2% $89,759 18% 1.5
Detroit 631 973 15% (33,800) (4.3%) 9.6% $89,430 18% 0.3
Flint 216 258 8% (8,200) (5.5%) 10.8% $92,477 19% 1.4
Grand Rapids 1,181 1,318 26% (300) (0.1%) 7.4% $104,484 19% 0.8
Holland 433 721 26% (2,200) (1.9%) 7.2% $144,263 22% 1.8
Jackson 141 285 28% (900) (1.5%) 9.3% $101,676 21% 4.5
Kalamazoo 564 796 32% (1,700) (1.1%) 7.2% $114,192 23% 2.2
Lansing 324 382 12% (4,800) (2.1%) 7.1% $94,509 17% 0.4
Muskegon 193 203 21% (500) (0.8%) 9.2% $92,149 20% 1.6
Niles 215 225 28% (100) (0.1%) 8.4% $123,419 25% 5.9
Saginaw 176 229 24% (2,400) (2.7%) 8.9% $61,779 14% 0.6
Warren 1,624 2,009 10% (24,000) (2.0%) 7.3% $153,412 22% 0.4
Minnesota
Duluth 600 772 45% (700) (0.5%) 6.2% $113,391 23% 6.5
Minneapolis 4,799 6,680 24% (12,800) (0.7%) 5.7% $215,000 29% 4.5
Rochester 480 589 29% 400 0.4% 4.7% $134,226 19% 1.0
St. Cloud 416 567 28% (600) (0.6%) 5.6% $136,612 24% 4.2
Mississippi
Gulfport-Biloxi 1,949 3,526 64% (1,200) (1.1%) 6.1% $133,408 27% 3.2
Hattiesburg 172 962 85% (2,000) (3.2%) 6.4% $99,204 24% 0.8
Jackson 2,294 2,352 52% (1,600) (0.6%) 6.2% $123,561 25% 1.5
Pascagoula 528 1,722 100% 800 1.4% 7.0% $111,161 22% 3.6
Missouri
Columbia 607 719 31% 500 0.5% 4.5% $129,086 27% 2.7
Jefferson City 165 178 16% (100) (0.1%) 5.1% $109,396 21% 3.8
Joplin 212 284 38% 900 1.1% 5.4% $85,876 22% 3.3
Kansas City 3,442 6,420 35% (5,200) (0.5%) 6.1% $144,147 23% 1.0
Springfield 1,190 2,478 48% 1,200 0.6% 5.3% $120,635 27% 4.0
St. Joseph 104 126 29% 100 0.2% 5.3% $89,259 19% 1.6
St. Louis 5,381 6,688 37% (12,300) (0.9%) 6.8% $171,363 30% 5.7
Montana
Billings 593 618 42% 1,400 1.7% 3.1% $137,865 24% 1.3
Missoula 368 489 43% (200) (0.3%) 3.8% $199,007 40% 4.9
Nebraska
Lincoln 783 982 36% 1,700 1.0% 3.0% $131,811 22% 3.1
Omaha 3,248 5,312 80% 2,400 0.5% 3.5% $136,320 22% 3.8
Nevada
Las Vegas 7,409 18,267 47% 700 0.1% 7.4% $196,000 31% 3.1
Reno 1,145 1,426 23% (4,800) (2.1%) 6.9% $235,000 37% 5.0
New Hampshire
Manchester 471 837 12% 300 0.3% 4.0% $200,787 22% 0.4
New Jersey
Atlantic City 745 863 22% 1,000 0.7% 6.8% $249,103 45% 6.9
Camden 1,904 2,715 32% (700) (0.1%) 5.7% $218,041 32% 5.7
Edison 3,104 5,425 22% (4,700) (0.4%) 5.1% $359,058 47% 9.6
Newark-Union 2,076 4,750 52% (2,500) (0.2%) 5.6% $399,874 55% 7.2
Trenton 295 582 16% (400) (0.2%) 5.1% $304,777 44% 6.6
Vineland 365 375 51% (1,400) (2.3%) 8.0% $157,677 32% 6.1
New Mexico
Albuquerque 2,249 2,859 32% (700) (0.2%) 4.1% $200,625 35% 4.0
Las Cruces 935 980 39% 1,400 2.0% 3.8% $122,599 27% 0.7
Santa Fe 160 160 12% (600) (0.9%) 3.3% $260,635 39% 2.6
New York
Albany 1,278 2,150 40% 400 0.1% 5.2% $199,882 34% 5.3
Binghamton 266 308 23% (400) (0.3%) 5.7% $118,520 24% 4.9
Buffalo 1,187 1,372 30% 2,100 0.4% 6.1% $102,468 21% 2.1
Glens Falls 369 430 27% 100 0.2% 5.4% $151,621 31% 4.1
Ithaca 146 276 42% 200 0.3% 4.5% $158,796 33% 4.6
Kingston 246 449 32% (200) (0.3%) 5.8% $242,406 41% 5.2
Nassau 2,305 3,531 31% 3,700 0.3% 5.2% $448,173 48% 8.2
New York 2,414 48,327 100% 23,700 0.5% 5.7% $471,029 78% 6.8
Poughkeepsie 988 1,494 29% 400 0.2% 5.7% $249,450 34% 3.8
Rochester 1,499 1,723 33% (5,300) (1.0%) 5.9% $117,864 22% 3.8
Syracuse 944 1,117 33% 300 0.1% 5.9% $118,599 24% 4.1
Utica-Rome 362 410 31% 400 0.3% 5.6% $105,508 24% 3.5
North Carolina
Asheville 2,193 2,915 68% 1,000 0.6% 5.2% $180,113 37% 5.1
Burlington 836 888 44% (200) (0.3%) 7.1% $113,329 23% 0.4
Charlotte 9,181 14,448 57% 13,500 1.6% 6.8% $168,000 27% 3.9
Durham 2,055 2,429 37% 2,700 0.9% 5.2% $179,113 32% 5.0
Fayetteville 1,640 2,449 57% 1,700 1.3% 6.7% $108,058 21% 0.6
Greensboro 2,421 3,598 56% 2,200 0.6% 6.9% $149,394 29% 1.8
Greenville 794 1,808 70% 700 0.9% 7.0% $110,068 24% 0.4
Hickory 1,041 1,086 45% (1,700) (1.0%) 8.1% $109,171 23% 0.8
Raleigh-Cary 8,196 13,091 74% 9,700 1.9% 5.3% $189,250 27% 2.5
Rocky Mount 557 566 55% (100) (0.2%) 9.6% $96,321 21% 0.7
Wilmington 4,145 4,868 53% 1,700 1.1% 6.0% $205,621 39% 5.2
Winston-Salem 2,413 2,425 55% 5,400 2.5% 6.3% $124,783 23% 0.5
North Dakota
Bismarck 665 936 86% 1,300 2.2% 2.5% $134,503 20% 1.8
Fargo 954 1,602 57% 900 0.7% 2.8% $138,222 23% 1.3
Grand Forks 203 317 47% 900 1.6% 3.4% $123,934 24% 2.9
Ohio
Akron 999 1,198 30% (1,400) (0.4%) 6.6% $123,550 22% 2.7
Canton 377 503 32% (500) (0.3%) 7.2% $94,778 18% 0.4
Cincinnati 3,642 5,012 32% (3,600) (0.3%) 6.3% $152,700 24% 2.8
Cleveland 2,511 2,858 36% (7,800) (0.7%) 6.9% $106,944 18% 0.2
Columbus 2,995 4,822 28% 6,900 0.7% 6.1% $136,900 21% 1.3
Dayton 1,203 1,441 35% (4,900) (1.2%) 7.5% $106,573 19% 0.6
Lima 123 130 26% 0 0.0% 7.8% $91,770 17% 0.4
Mansfield 99 151 25% (600) (1.1%) 8.1% $92,271 19% 0.8
Springfield 102 216 32% (800) (1.5%) 7.1% $97,956 18% 0.5
Toledo 798 1,348 33% (7,700) (2.3%) 7.8% $93,188 16% 0.3
Youngstown 438 517 27% 1,700 0.7% 7.5% $68,457 14% 0.3
Oklahoma
Oklahoma City 4,046 4,685 22% 8,600 1.5% 3.5% $128,680 22% 3.4
Tulsa 3,320 4,100 34% (2,100) (0.5%) 3.6% $125,527 21% 0.6
Oregon
Bend 819 937 21% 0 0.0% 6.8% $228,688 36% 5.5
Eugene 701 945 34% (1,000) (0.6%) 6.7% $220,538 42% 6.9
Medford 472 533 25% (1,200) (1.4%) 6.7% $202,488 40% 5.2
Portland 4,926 9,170 46% (700) (0.1%) 5.6% $254,950 39% 7.0
Salem 800 1,016 30% 0 0.0% 5.5% $185,000 33% 5.9
Pennsylvania
Allentown 1,855 1,983 37% (900) (0.3%) 5.5% $242,279 40% 7.9
Altoona 66 220 44% (400) (0.6%) 5.0% $96,041 20% 1.8
Erie 368 514 51% (200) (0.1%) 5.2% $105,714 23% 2.1
Harrisburg 1,873 1,987 53% (400) (0.1%) 4.6% $152,453 25% 4.8
Johnstown 123 139 37% (600) (1.0%) 5.8% $84,793 21% 4.0
Lancaster 1,179 1,462 41% 1,400 0.6% 4.2% $170,132 27% 4.2
Philadelphia 4,504 6,471 36% (800) 0.0% 5.6% $226,846 34% 6.6
Pittsburgh 3,220 3,735 53% 7,000 0.6% 4.9% $120,861 23% 2.8
Reading 630 852 39% (1,300) (0.7%) 5.4% $151,108 25% 4.9
Scranton 949 1,064 49% (400) (0.2%) 5.9% $127,662 27% 5.2
State College 475 530 48% 100 0.1% 4.1% $160,384 33% 4.4
Williamsport 108 117 22% (100) (0.2%) 5.5% $115,101 25% 3.1
York 1,250 1,375 44% (500) (0.3%) 4.7% $166,316 27% 4.5
Rhode Island
Providence 1,463 1,800 15% (12,100) (2.1%) 8.0% $259,015 42% 4.8
South Carolina
Anderson 682 757 39% (1,300) (2.0%) 7.1% $104,952 20% 0.6
Charleston 3,953 5,020 46% (1,900) (0.6%) 6.1% $185,000 32% 2.7
Columbia 3,777 4,890 60% (4,800) (1.3%) 6.4% $138,250 24% 4.2
Florence 613 991 76% 0 0.0% 8.1% $99,549 20% 0.5
Greenville 2,789 3,968 72% 1,600 0.5% 6.3% $136,500 26% 5.2
Myrtle Beach 2,289 3,736 32% (1,500) (1.2%) 6.9% $183,500 35% 3.6
Spartanburg 1,174 1,174 43% 2,600 2.1% 7.3% $128,005 25% 5.0
South Dakota
Rapid City 571 584 43% 800 1.3% 2.9% $123,776 22% 3.4
Sioux Falls 1,061 1,941 77% 2,500 1.9% 2.5% $136,513 21% 0.7
Tennessee
Chattanooga 1,414 1,966 51% (500) (0.2%) 6.0% $128,307 27% 3.7
Clarksville 1,125 1,644 51% (400) (0.5%) 7.4% $100,674 21% 1.1
Jackson 333 337 30% (100) (0.2%) 7.1% $89,961 22% 0.7
Johnson City 696 1,134 79% 100 0.1% 6.4% $114,590 29% 1.8
Kingsport 815 1,009 66% 500 0.4% 5.9% $111,236 27% 3.4
Knoxville 2,601 3,050 47% (1,000) (0.3%) 5.6% $149,161 30% 4.0
Memphis 2,938 4,396 40% (8,300) (1.3%) 7.3% $109,771 22% 0.6
Nashville 6,616 8,564 47% (1,700) (0.2%) 6.1% $152,500 27% 5.0
Texas
Abilene 222 234 11% 900 1.4% 4.2% $106,000 22% 5.0
Amarillo 479 808 22% 1,100 1.0% 3.9% $132,700 26% 5.3
Austin 9,127 15,708 59% 14,600 1.9% 4.7% $183,300 29% 5.0
Beaumont 795 1,500 53% 800 0.5% 7.1% $135,500 27% 5.7
Brownsville 1,203 1,453 37% 2,400 2.0% 7.5% $87,900 25% 4.2
College Station 782 2,278 64% 2,300 2.5% 4.2% $141,300 32% 3.9
Corpus Christi 1,356 1,711 28% 2,400 1.4% 5.2% $137,500 30% 5.5
Dallas 13,628 30,987 42% 39,200 1.9% 5.4% $153,300 24% 2.4
El Paso 3,036 4,186 65% 6,000 2.2% 6.6% $134,300 34% 5.4
Fort Worth 7,933 11,664 30% 15,100 1.7% 5.1% $116,000 19% 4.0
Houston 31,411 48,685 65% 55,700 2.2% 5.1% $156,600 26% 5.1
Killeen 2,143 2,892 63% 2,600 2.1% 5.4% $112,185 22% 3.0
Laredo 774 999 42% 3,200 3.7% 5.6% $92,238 24% 0.8
Longview 238 307 19% 2,200 2.3% 4.4% $133,100 28% 5.3
Lubbock 1,028 1,677 40% 300 0.2% 4.0% $113,200 25% 4.0
McAllen 3,548 4,359 47% 6,900 3.3% 7.9% $117,100 33% 4.2
Midland 521 521 14% 1,200 1.8% 3.2% $123,001 22% 5.0
Odessa 276 738 35% 1,800 3.0% 3.8% $145,200 30% 5.3
San Antonio 6,546 11,049 50% 17,400 2.1% 5.0% $145,100 27% 5.1
Texarkana 111 216 26% 1,200 2.1% 4.9% $79,245 17% 0.4
Tyler 252 331 11% 1,200 1.3% 5.1% $129,200 26% 3.8
Waco 651 1,085 36% 1,600 1.5% 4.8% $112,100 26% 2.6
Wichita Falls 162 353 39% 400 0.6% 5.2% $90,000 20% 3.0
Utah
Ogden-Clearfield 1,687 2,120 41% (1,000) (0.5%) 3.5% $165,672 26% 4.1
Provo-Orem 1,339 1,779 27% (1,800) (0.9%) 3.0% $188,787 33% 4.8
Salt Lake City 2,060 3,823 31% 2,500 0.4% 3.2% $223,580 37% 6.0
St. George 796 839 22% (1,800) (3.3%) 4.7% $194,195 38% 4.0
Virginia
Charlottesville 884 983 37% (500) (0.5%) 3.4% $225,731 36% 4.9
Harrisonburg 757 1,336 100% 1,100 1.7% 3.5% $183,295 36% 5.3
Lynchburg 1,154 1,172 64% 2,400 2.2% 4.3% $141,087 29% 4.5
Richmond 4,423 5,334 47% 1,600 0.3% 4.6% $205,000 34% 5.2
Roanoke 807 882 46% 900 0.6% 4.0% $146,456 28% 4.8
Virginia Beach 3,703 5,541 23% 17,000 2.2% 4.4% $232,422 39% 6.7
Winchester 531 543 31% 1,000 1.7% 4.3% $173,598 30% 2.3
Washington
Bellingham 523 718 28% 1,300 1.5% 5.2% $248,707 44% 5.6
Bremerton 790 982 38% (100) (0.1%) 5.3% $260,518 36% 5.9
Kennewick 983 1,055 32% 2,000 2.2% 4.9% $161,679 26% 4.3
Olympia 1,239 1,555 49% 1,900 1.9% 5.2% $239,950 34% 6.6
Seattle 5,583 15,321 55% 29,700 2.0% 4.7% $375,000 47% 7.0
Spokane 1,374 1,765 40% (1,400) (0.6%) 5.5% $165,000 30% 5.4
Tacoma 2,100 2,947 43% 4,200 1.5% 5.9% $239,950 34% 5.6
Yakima 731 824 67% 600 0.8% 5.7% $161,720 31% 5.0
West Virginia
Charleston 354 573 68% 100 0.1% 3.2% $124,889 24% 1.0
Huntington 156 210 33% (300) (0.2%) 5.0% $87,918 20% 0.5
Morgantown 33 298 100% 2,200 3.5% 2.6% $126,210 26% 0.5
Parkersburg 179 235 54% (900) (1.2%) 4.9% $88,492 17% 0.3
Wheeling 44 46 16% 1,700 2.5% 5.0% $82,558 17% 0.7
Wisconsin
Appleton 524 620 29% (400) (0.3%) 4.0% $121,143 20% 4.3
Eau Claire 387 498 35% (400) (0.5%) 3.8% $118,275 23% 5.1
Green Bay 901 1,137 37% (300) (0.2%) 4.3% $142,332 25% 5.1
Janesville 272 303 24% (2,100) (3.0%) 6.4% $122,170 23% 5.5
La Crosse 323 441 52% (900) (1.2%) 3.9% $120,309 23% 4.6
Madison 1,030 2,295 38% (1,300) (0.4%) 3.4% $226,091 35% 5.9
Milwaukee 1,479 3,167 37% (10,300) (1.2%) 4.9% $210,273 37% 6.4
Oshkosh-Neenah 418 595 41% (700) (0.7%) 4.1% $118,797 21% 4.2
Racine 333 351 28% (1,400) (1.7%) 5.4% $150,584 26% 5.7
Sheboygan 145 227 31% (900) (1.4%) 4.1% $132,785 25% 5.6
Wausau 264 502 36% (1,000) (1.4%) 4.1% $123,393 22% 5.2
Wyoming
Cheyenne 200 218 25% 300 0.7% 3.6% $133,300 22% 0.5
Total Permits includes both single-family and multifamily residential permits.
Total Permits/Peak Permits is the current 12-month total permit activity divided by the perak 12-month period since 1982.
The Housing Costs/Income ratio assumes a 20% down payment paid over 7 years, and the remaining 80% amortized over 30 years at the current fixed rate.
For more information on our Housing Cycle Barometer™, click here

 


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