In March 2008, we rolled out an educational video on housing cycles that ended with, “Remember that every down cycle is the beginning of the next up cycle.” We talked about the 3 factors that needed to be in place. Here they are, with comments on where we are today:
- Demand – Job Growth is coming back slowly and renters are slowly figuring out that this is the best home buying opportunity of a lifetime
- Supply – New construction is at an all-time low, and will likely stay low until the bank REO selling subsides and private builders can find capital
- Investment – Mortgage rates and home prices have fallen dramatically, to create the best consumer affordability in 30+/- years.
We are at Stage 1 (The Bottom) and heading into Stage 2 (The Beginning). While we think Stage 2 will last longer than usual, we want to point out that the downside of investing in housing right now is about as low as you will ever see.